Second in a series on religion and voting habits
So much has happened to change America's social and political
landscape in the last four years; it will be fascinating to see how
those changes are reflected in the dynamics of next year's
presidential election. The influence of religion provides a case in
point: Three months before the last election in August 2000, when
Gallup asked Americans how important religion would be to their
vote, 33% said their personal religious beliefs and faith would be
"extremely" or "very" important*. This figure is very close to the
36% of Americans who answered the same way in a November 2003 poll,
approximately one year before the 2004 presidential election**.
So on the surface, it appears that little has changed. But a
closer look at the data reveals some significant changes along
political lines.
The New "Party Line"
In 2000, the data showed little difference between Republicans
and Democrats with regard to the importance of religion to their
vote. Thirty-seven percent of Republicans and Republican leaners
said that their religious beliefs would be extremely or very
important in their decisions, compared to 31% of Democrats and
Democratic leaners.
But the 2003 data tell a different story. In the most recent
survey, nearly half of Republicans and Republican leaners (48%) say
religion will be important to their votes in the 2004 presidential
election, as do only 28% of Democrats and Democratic leaners. It is
unclear how much a conservative, more overtly religious president
in office may be behind the shift of the religious vote, or if it
is just a continuation of trend that began earlier.
Religion Galvanizes Support for Bush
In August 2000, registered voters who said that religion would
be extremely or very important to their vote were about as likely
to support Democratic candidate Al Gore as they were Republican
presidential candidate George W. Bush: 46% planned to vote for Bush
in the 2000 election, while 46% planned to vote for Gore.
Though next year's Democratic presidential candidate has not
been selected yet, a look at hypothetical matchups between George
Bush and the current three top candidates for the Democratic
nomination suggests that religion will be more strongly related to
support for Bush than for any of the top Democrats.
The Nov. 10-12 poll tested several hypothetical head-to-head
races between Bush and each prospective Democratic candidate. Among
registered voters who say religion is extremely or very important
to their vote, 67% would vote for Bush over former Vermont Gov.
Howard Dean (the current Democratic front-runner), while 30% would
choose Dean. Similarly, 65% of this group of voters would select
Bush over Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, and 33% would choose
Gephardt. Sixty-five percent would choose Bush over retired Army
Gen. Wesley Clark, while 33% would choose Clark. Certainly much can
change between now and the election next year, but these early data
indicate that religious voters may be overwhelmingly casting votes
for Bush.
It seems that in the three years since the election, Bush has
become the go-to candidate for those who feel that religion is
important to their vote for president. Bush's approval ratings are
also much higher among those for whom religion is important to
their vote. At the time of this survey, Bush's approval rating was
65% among those who said their faith would be extremely or very
important in deciding their vote, compared with 44% among those who
say religion will have less of an impact on their vote.
Bottom Line
While overall it appears that the importance of religion to
voting has not changed since the last election, the political
alignment of those who feel that religion is important to their
vote has apparently undergone a shift. Under the leadership of a
religious Republican president, the Republicans seem to be winning
the battle with Democrats for the support of religious voters.
*These results are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and
older, conducted Aug. 24-27, 2000. For results based on this
sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3
percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording
and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For results based on a sample of 832 registered voters, one can
say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to
sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage
points.
**These results are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and
older, conducted Nov. 10-12, 2003. For results based on this
sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3
percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording
and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For results based on a sample of 838 registered voters, one can
say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to
sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage
points.
