Gallup’s Extraordinary Array of Election Data

The good news for those who follow and use Gallup Poll data on the fascinating 2008 presidential election is that we now have an extraordinary array of incoming information to use in our analysis. As has been the case throughout the Gallup Poll history (and since 1992 in large part with USA Today), we provide in-depth analyses of the American public's opinions on a periodic basis with polls conducted, on average, every one to two weeks.

But now there's more. Starting in January 2008, as many readers of this page probably know, Gallup has invested in a truly exceptional Gallup Poll Daily tracking program in which we interview 1,000 American adults seven days a week. This tracking program provides 24-hour updates on the election and specific questions we ask regarding the U.S. economy.

Let's take a look what all of these data have told us in the days leading up to Super Tuesday.

Clearly, the data from the Gallup Poll Daily tracking and the USA Today/Gallup poll showed that, as of Saturday, Feb. 2, the tide among Democrats nationally was not working in Hillary Clinton's favor. Both sources of information indicated that Barack Obama had staged a dramatic comeback from his 20-percentage point deficit to Clinton in mid-January. Obama capped his win in the South Carolina Democratic primary on Jan. 19 with high-profile endorsements from Sen. Edward Kennedy and other Kennedy family members and enjoyed a substantial surge among national Democratic voters, closing the gap to the point where he was almost dead even with Clinton by this past weekend.

This was evident in Gallup Poll Daily tracking data and certainly evident in the comparison of the mid-January USA Today/Gallup poll with the Jan. 30-Feb. 1 USA Today/Gallup polls.

But the world continues to spin on its axis. One significant advantage of the Gallup Poll Daily tracking is that it allows us to monitor changes on a continuous basis -- as they occur. And the daily tracking data for Sunday and Monday showed that Clinton -- at least at the national level -- had been able to stop Obama's momentum and maintain a small lead in the national popular vote.

Our Gallup analyses show that the national data are at least broadly similar to the data in the states voting on Super Tuesday. Thus, the national trends through Monday suggested that Clinton would do better on Super Tuesday than some might have imagined given Obama's apparent momentum. The actual vote on a state-by-state basis, of course, varied depending on local circumstances. Obama is from Illinois, for example, which helped to ensure his win there; there was never much doubt that Clinton would win in her home state of New York. But, overall, a rising tide lifts all ships, as they say. And so the available information gained from Gallup Poll Daily tracking data through Monday correctly suggested that Clinton was not doomed to drown in a continuing surge of Obama support, as some might have thought a few days ago, but rather that the picture would be mixed, with her having the slight edge.

The question now becomes, what happens next? Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing on Wednesday night should give us an initial indication of the impact of Super Tuesday on Democrats' and Republicans' support patterns nationally. A planned weekend USA Today/Gallup poll will provide more detail on the thoughts and opinions of Democrats and Republicans as the races for the nomination continue.