Gallup Daily: Tracking Election 2008

Based on daily polling from Feb. 9-11, 2008

PRINCETON, NJ -- After hitting a high point of 57% on Feb. 7-9 in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, support for John McCain has been slipping since then. In the Feb. 9-11 average, he receives 52% of the vote. Mike Huckabee moves up to 28%, from 23% Feb. 7-9 and from 21% Feb. 6-8.

Even though there is talk of McCain's status as the presumptive Republican nominee, the Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds that almost half of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters nationwide say they support Huckabee, Ron Paul, Alan Keyes, "other," or don't have an opinion.

The interviews conducted Monday night, Feb. 11, show Huckabee doing particularly well, and McCain's support below the 50% mark.

Results from Tuesday's vote in three states could change perceptions if, for example, McCain wins convincingly across all three states. But Gallup Poll data will not reflect news accounts of Tuesday's voting results until we report the three-day rolling average on Thursday.

There has been virtually no change in the Democratic race since Feb. 8-10 polling. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remain in a statistical tie, with Clinton at 45% and Obama 44%. -- Frank Newport and Lydia Saad

Methodology: Gallup is interviewing 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008. The results reported here are based on combined data from Feb. 9-11, 2008, including interviews with 963 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, and 1,262 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.

For results based on these samples, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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