PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with a 49% to 42% lead over Hillary Clinton in national Democratic voters' nomination preferences.
This seven percentage point margin, although down slightly from Obama's high-water mark of an 11-point lead in Gallup's April 12-14 average, represents the 11th consecutive day that Obama has held a statistically significant lead over Clinton. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
The current average is based on interviewing conducted April 14-16. The two Democratic candidates held their final debate before next Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary on Wednesday night in Philadelphia, and any impact of the debate -- and the media spin that will inevitably follow -- will begin to be reflected in the tracking averages over the next several days.
There is little change in the results of Gallup's tracking of the general election. When matched against John McCain, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today and 44% would choose McCain. The Clinton-McCain trial heat has Clinton at 46% and McCain at 45%. -- Frank Newport
Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from April 14-16, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,270 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
The general election results are based on combined data from April 12-16, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,413 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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