Clinton and Obama both run within one point of McCain in fall ballot
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in national Democratic preferences for the nomination, 50% to 42%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from April 20-22.
This marks the third straight day Obama has had a significant lead over Clinton, although he held a slightly higher 10 percentage point advantage in Tuesday's report.
The latest three-day rolling average includes interviewing on Tuesday night, partially conducted as the returns of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary were coming in. However, the impact of Clinton's 10-point win in that election on national Democratic preferences is not yet evident in the data.
With Obama currently leading Clinton nationally by eight points, it appears Pennsylvania is not a Democratic bellwether state. However, if the Clinton campaign is successful in using her solid Pennsylvania victory to argue she is the more electable candidate of the two in the fall, then she could start to close the gap with Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking over the next few days. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
The general election remains on the sidelines as the Democratic nomination continues to sort itself out. Perhaps because of the lack of activity surrounding that campaign, the preferences of registered voters for the two hypothetical contests have been extraordinarily stable since Gallup began tracking them in early March. Both races are neck and neck, with Republican John McCain currently one point ahead of Obama, 46% to 45%, and one point ahead of Clinton, 47% to 46%. -- Lydia Saad
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For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from April 18-22, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,395 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
The general election results are based on combined data from April 20-22, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,242 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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