PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama holds an eight percentage point lead, 51% to 43%, over Hillary Clinton in national Democratic voters' presidential nomination preferences, according to May 23-25 Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
After a string of five days with a double-digit lead over Clinton last week, Obama has held slightly smaller advantages over Clinton -- ranging from five to eight points -- in the last four releases based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Since May 1-3 polling, Obama has held at least a small advantage over Clinton, and has held a statistically significant lead most of this month. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
Though Obama's nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate seems highly likely, Clinton actually is running better versus presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in general election trial heats among registered voters nationwide.
The latest update, based on May 21-25 Gallup Poll Daily tracking, shows Clinton with a 3-point advantage (48% to 45%) over McCain, while Obama trails McCain by the same 3-point margin (47% to 44%).
That net difference of six points in the gap (+3 for Clinton and -3 for Obama) is typical of what Gallup has observed in the last four releases, and rank among the largest net differences in either Democratic candidate's favor since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in mid-March. -- Jeff Jones
Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from May 23-25, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
The general election results are based on combined data from May 21-25, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,417 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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