PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain and Barack Obama are now virtually tied at 46% to 45% when registered voters nationally are asked for whom they would vote next November if these were the two presidential nominees, while Hillary Clinton maintains a 48% to 44% margin over McCain in a hypothetical Clinton-McCain matchup.
The latest update, based on May 22-25 and May 27 Gallup Poll Daily tracking, shows Clinton with a four percentage point advantage (48% to 44%) over McCain, while Obama has gained slightly and now trails McCain by just one point. Obama has trailed McCain by as much as three points in recent days, although from a longer range perspective, the two candidates have traded the lead throughout the month. Clinton, by contrast, has held at least a small lead over McCain for most of May.
As the end to Democratic primary and caucus voting draws near (the Puerto Rico primary on June 1 and the Montana and South Dakota primaries on June 3 will be the last), Gallup Poll Daily tracking for May 24-25 and May 27 shows that Barack Obama maintains a relatively slim 6-point lead over Hillary Clinton, 50% to 44%. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
Obama's lead has been as high as 16 points within the last two weeks, but Clinton has fared better in recent days, though she still trailed Obama by five to eight points in the three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking averages reported over the last five days. -- Frank Newport
Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from May 24-25 and May 27, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,270 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
The general election results are based on combined data from May 22-25 and May 27, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,411 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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