PRINCETON, NJ - Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama continuing to hold a 52% to 42% lead over Hillary Clinton in the presidential nomination preference among Democratic voters nationwide.
Obama has had the same 52% to 42% lead in each of the last three Gallup Poll Daily tracking releases. His nomination seems more assured after the Democratic National Committee ruled on Saturday that members of Michigan and Florida's delegations could attend the party's nominating convention, with each receiving half a vote. The Clinton campaign had hoped to have the delegations seated fully, based on the results of the party's "beauty contest" primaries in January, to help her cut into Obama's delegate lead.
Gallup's tracking has shown Obama ahead of Clinton in national Democratic voter preferences since mid-February with only a few exceptions. Clinton has held a statistically significant lead over Obama just one day since then, while Obama has held a lead for much of May. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
Registered voters' preferences for the general presidential election have also been stable in recent days. Both Democrats currently hold slight but not statistically significant advantages over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, with the Obama-McCain matchup at 46% to 45% and the Clinton-McCain matchup at 47% to 45%. -- Jeff Jones
Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from May 28-29 and 31, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,234 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
The general election results are based on combined data from May 25, 27-29, and 31, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,384 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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