|% Obama||% McCain|
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Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.
Gallup Daily is tracking the percentage of registered voters who say they have already voted in this year's election, either by absentee ballot or early voting opportunities in their state, as well as those who say they plan to vote at some point before Election Day.
More U.S. voters say the Obama campaign has contacted them within the last few weeks than say the McCain campaign has done so, 38% vs. 30%.