I was interested in this comment quoted in a Thursday, July 17, New York Times article "Obama and McCain Expand Courtship of Hispanics" by Larry Rohter: "Hessy Fernandez, Mr. McCain's spokeswoman for Hispanic issues, said he was conceding nothing and argued that Mr. Obama 'has been losing support' among Hispanics since he clinched the nomination."
Well, I'm not sure to what data Hessy Fernandez are referring to, but we simply find no confirmation of his hypothesis that Obama is losing support among Hispanics.
In the two weeks after Obama clinched the nomination, June 2-8 and June 9-15, Obama led McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 58% to 29% and 59% to 27%, respectively, among Hispanics. In the two most recent weeks, June 30-July 6 and July 7-13, Obama leads McCain among Hispanics by 62% to 28% and 59% to 28%. Absolutely no change. It's stable. There is no basis in our data for Fernandez' assertion about Obama losing support among Hispanics since he clinched the nomination.
That's not to say that McCain should concede anything. Or that things won't change. Of course, much could change, particularly if McCain pours it on in his campaigning, and/or if Obama makes some type of gaffe that turns off Hispanic voters. But to date, Obama's strong Hispanic support has been stable.
(By the way, exit polls in 2004 showed that Kerry won the Hispanic vote over Bush by 53% to 44%. So Obama is doing better among Hispanics than Kerry did in 2004 -- at least for the moment.)
