There's a huge influx of election-related news swirling around these days. A fascinating and important question is just how all this information is being processed by the average American. At least, that's a fascinating question to us pollsters.
We knew that this two-week period encompassing two conventions and two vice presidential announcements would be extraordinary. We didn't know, of course, that there would be a hurricane thrown into the mix, along with unanticipated sidebar stories about the Republican vice presidential selection's family and personal life.
As of Wednesday night, Democratic nominee Barack Obama has held onto, and expanded slightly, his convention bounce. He's now 6 points ahead of John McCain.
It's too early yet to get any read on the possible rebound bounce for McCain as a result of his own convention. Monday night was essentially a lost night for the Republicans. The news media focused on Hurricane Gustav and Gov. Sarah Palin's daughter. There essentially wasn't any real convention activity. There was little opportunity for the usual stream of positive news that emanates from a political convention.
It's important to remember that, last week, Obama didn't begin his move up in our Gallup Poll Daily tracking until Thursday's report of Monday through Wednesday interviewing. So, in a parallel sense, McCain has plenty of time left to make his move.
Last week's Democratic convention had the Hillary Clinton drama. This week's Republican convention has the Sarah Palin drama.
People ask me constantly how the public is reacting to Palin. We know that the initial reaction to her selection was very muted, but positive. We know that the public almost immediately figured out that she had less experience than other recent vice presidential nominees. We don't know anything -- based on polling -- about the specific reaction to the revelation about her daughter, Bristol, being pregnant.
We know that a majority of Republicans believe that it is morally unacceptable to have a baby out of wedlock. A majority of Democrats and independents say it is morally acceptable. We know that Republicans are split down the middle on whether or not an unmarried man and woman having sexual relations is morally acceptable. A majority of Democrats and independents say it is morally acceptable.
But since Bristol Palin is marrying the father, according to her family's statement, and since forgiveness is a big component of Christian religions, and since Republicans tend to be quite religious, it's unclear whether rank and file Republicans will have a positive, neutral, or negative reaction to the Palin situation.
And, there is the evident decision by the McCain team to turn the Palin situation into a referendum on their view of the news media's liberal bias in attacking Palin -- while giving Obama a pass. This strategy will generally be well received by Republicans. Our data consistently show that Republicans are much more critical of the news media than are independents or Democrats.
The critical phase of this whole situation is later this week and this weekend. Particularly when we begin to get polling that reflects Wednesday and Thursday night's GOP convention activity. Expectations are that McCain should get a bounce, recovering some of the ground he lost to Obama. If he doesn't, it's going to be a harder climb for the McCain team going into the fall.Click below for more on these topics:
