PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds John McCain continuing to lead Barack Obama, 48% to 43% among registered voters.
The Sept. 7-9 average -- spanning interviewing conducted Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday -- finds little substantive change in the shape of the race compared to earlier this week, although each of the two candidate's level of support has dropped a point compared to the Tuesday's reported average. Nine percent of registered voters say they are undecided, refuse to state their preference, say they will vote for neither McCain nor Obama, or indicate they are voting for another candidate.
The race has now entered a period where there will, no doubt, continue to be intense interest in the campaign, but in which there are no major planned events until the first presidential debate, scheduled for Friday, Sept. 26, at the University of Mississippi in Oxford. Along with their running mates, Obama and McCain will continue to campaign unabated during this time period and will be spending tens of millions of dollars a week on advertising and voter contact. However, the experience of the past summer suggests that voter support levels do not tend to change dramatically during periods of time in which there are no major campaign events. Additionally, it may take a few additional days before it is possible to determine if McCain's modest lead over Obama -- developed as a bounce out of the GOP convention -- will be sustained, or if it will fade. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport
(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from Sept. 7-9, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,714 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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