Politics

Gallup Daily: Little Impact From Debate So Far

Among registered voters, Obama back up to 50% share of vote

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Tuesday through Thursday shows Barack Obama with a 50%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.

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This three-day rolling average includes one full night of interviewing after Wednesday night's final presidential debate, and shows little significant change as a result of the debate at this point. Obama has now returned to 50% of the vote among registered voters, while McCain has been stable at 43% of the vote for three consecutive reports. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Gallup's likely voter scenarios show differing patterns. If turnout in this year's election follows traditional patterns by which the voting electorate skews towards those who usually vote as well as those who are interested in this year's election, the race is a close one, with Obama holding on to a two percentage point margin, 49% to 47%. If a much higher than usual proportion of new voters turn out, thus increasing the potential impact of groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities, Obama has a six-point lead, 51% to 45%. -- Frank Newport

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(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 14-16, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,805 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 2,155 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention and past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 2,314 more broadly defined likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention only), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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