WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup Polls conducted between March 7 and Oct. 22, 2008, show how Americans' current life satisfaction relates to their voting preferences. The connection between current life satisfaction and voting preferences comes into sharp focus when examining the voting preferences of members of different political parties. The group for whom current life satisfaction is most tightly linked to candidate preferences seems to be Republicans.
As evident from the accompanying graph, Republicans who are more highly satisfied with their current lives more strongly prefer Republican Sen. John McCain. The gap between the highly dissatisfied and the highly satisfied is 18 percentage points. Further, Republican crossover votes for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, while low overall, are more than twice as high among Republicans who are highly dissatisfied with their current lives. Of note is that Republicans who are dissatisfied with their lives are just as likely to be undecided or to vote for a third-party candidate as to support Obama.
In contrast to Republicans, Democrats who are highly satisfied with their lives express only a modest increase in their preference for their party's candidate.
The 18-point satisfaction gap that exists for Republicans dwindles to only a 6-point gap among Democrats. Moreover, crossover support for McCain is flat among Democrats across the three levels of current well-being. Being highly dissatisfied with their lives steers Democrats slightly away from Obama, moving them into the ranks of the undecided, rather than steering them toward McCain.
In terms of the relationship between current life satisfaction and voting preferences, independent voters resemble Republicans.
The more satisfied independent voters are with their lives, the more likely they are to prefer McCain. The 18-point satisfaction gap among Republicans parallels a 14-point satisfaction gap in the same direction among independents. Preferences for Obama are essentially unrelated to life satisfaction among independents. Independents who are highly satisfied with their current lives are less likely to be undecided or to prefer a third-party candidate. Put differently, independents who are highly satisfied with their lives slightly prefer McCain. Independents who are highly dissatisfied with their lives strongly prefer Obama.
Future Expectations of Well-Being
There is an entirely different set of relationships regarding voter preferences and Americans' expectations of their future rather than their present life satisfaction. Americans' feelings about their future life satisfaction seem to be more strongly connected to how they feel about Obama than to how they feel about McCain.
Republicans with more positive views of their futures prefer their own party's candidate.
However, the 18-point gap that exists for current well-being among Republicans is reduced to an 11-point gap based on perceptions of future life satisfaction. Further, unlike present life satisfaction, perceived future life satisfaction among Republicans is essentially unrelated to their crossover votes for Obama. Republicans who are dissatisfied with their future prospects in life either gravitate toward a third-party candidate or remain undecided.
Democrats' views of their future lives play an even stronger role in their preferences for a presidential candidate.
Those who expect their futures to be brightest are the most likely to prefer Obama. In addition, Democrats who report a rosy view of their futures are less likely to prefer McCain and less likely to be undecided or to prefer a third-party candidate. In short, whereas current life satisfaction is more strongly related to Republicans' preferences, perceived future life satisfaction is more strongly related to Democrats' preferences.
Independent voters who expect to be more satisfied with their lives in the future are substantially more likely to prefer Obama. Preferences for McCain are unrelated to independents' perceived future life satisfaction. However, as is the case for Democrats, independents who expect their futures to be brighter are also substantially less likely to be undecided or to prefer a third-party candidate. In short, the same independent voters who strongly resemble Republicans when it comes to current well-being strongly resemble Democrats when it comes to future well-being.
Implications
Depending on political party affiliation and whether respondents focus on their present or future lives, these new poll results show that current and future life satisfaction relate to voter preferences in different ways,. Whereas Republicans preferences for a president candidate are linked to their current feelings of well-being, the preferences of Democrats seem to be have more to do with their expectations of future well-being.
Perhaps the most important insight provided by these findings is that independent voters tend to be of two different minds. Like Republicans, they tend to prefer McCain when they are more satisfied with where they are today. Like Democrats, they tend to prefer Obama when they expect to be more satisfied with their futures. Perhaps this plays into a sentiment among independents that they wish to protect what they currently have, or have long valued, while also hoping to see a brighter future.
Survey Methods
Results are based on interviews conducted between March 7 and Oct. 22 in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey. In the daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008. Complete results are based on a sample of approximately 54,000 Republicans, 70,000 Democrats, and 69,000 independents. However, the number of respondents represented within different political parties and with different well-being scores varied widely. The smallest number of respondents available for any analysis reported here was 1,935 Republicans who reported being low in current well-being, which yields a margin of error of +2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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