The Election
The presidential campaign is entering the so-called "doldrums period." The only official event directly related to the campaign between now and the beginning of the Democratic convention in Boston on July 26 is John Kerry's pending announcement of his vice presidential nominee. Over the weekend, a New York Times story by Adam Nagourney suggested that Kerry and his advisers have decided to select a vice presidential running mate within eight weeks (which would put the date of the announcement on or before June 1) -- well ahead of the usual vice president announcement in a presidential race.
Kerry's selection for vice president aside, one thing is clear: There's a great deal of interest in this year's presidential campaign. A special Gallup analysis shows that a significantly higher percentage of Americans are following the presidential campaign closely now than at this same time during the 2000 campaign. Additionally, 51% of Americans report being more enthusiastic about this election than previous elections, a much higher percentage than in 2000.
The potential impact of this building enthusiasm is murky at this point. For the first several months of the year, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to score highly on these measures, giving them the edge in Gallup's estimates of the likelihood of various partisan voting blocs to turn out and vote. But in Gallup's most recent poll, Republicans have regained their traditionally higher representation among likely voters. Most observers agree that turnout will be a major factor in this election, meaning that the relative interest displayed by partisans on either end of the political spectrum is a very important variable to monitor in the months ahead.
In addition to the inevitable speculation about Kerry's running mate, there will be plenty going on to keep voters' interest. Both candidates will continue to campaign vigorously, and they will spend money on ads. Real world events will also affect the course of the campaign in relationship to the three most critical factors that will shape the election's outcome: the situation in Iraq, the economy, and terrorism.
Iraq
New Gallup Poll data measuring the public's reaction to recent events in Iraq will be available at the end of the week. These events include the startling and tragic scenes of American bodies hung near Fallujah, and the news over the weekend that more than 10 American soldiers have died in recent fighting. Although there is speculation that these events could result in higher support for both the U.S. presence in Iraq and Bush administration policies (as a form of rally effect), a Pew Research Center poll released Monday night shows a drop in George Bush's job approval rating to 43% -- the lowest of his administration.
Prior to the most recent events, Gallup polling has shown that a majority of Americans continue to support the Bush administration's Iraq policies. Americans believe that Bush himself is better able than Kerry to handle Iraq and the more general issue of putting troops into combat.
Iraq will probably become an even more dominant public focus as the scheduled turnover of power from the United States and its allies to an Iraqi representative government (currently set for June 30) approaches.
If the transfer is perceived to go well, support for the administration and its policies will most probably remain above the majority level or climb higher. If the situation in Iraq devolves into further chaos (either before or after the scheduled turnover), then Bush will obviously be more vulnerable to Democratic attacks.
Terrorism
As far as terrorism is concerned, the big event of the coming week is national security adviser Condoleezza Rice's public testimony before the independent commission looking into the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. As of Gallup's last poll on March 26-28, the testimony before the commission (and the highly public comments of former administration counterterrorism official Richard Clarke) had apparently not hurt Bush's job approval rating, or his standing in the trial heat ballot.
Despite the fact that broad indicators of public opinion on the way Bush is handling terrorism did not move, the Gallup Poll showed that Bush's approval rating on handling terrorism declined to 58%, the lowest of his administration. The poll also showed that while only about a quarter (27%) of Americans believe the Bush administration should have been able to prevent the 9/11 terrorist attacks, a little more than half (53%) believe that the administration has been covering up "something about its handling of intelligence information" regarding possible terrorist actions prior to Sept. 11.
Still, it is important to note that his handling of terrorism and national security are clearly Bush's greatest strengths in the eyes of the public. Bush is preferred to Kerry on handling terror and national security by a 53% to 29% margin, according to a March 22-28 Pew Research Center poll.
So the public will most likely be watching Rice's testimony with mixed reference points in mind. There is still support for the way Bush is handling terrorism, and relatively low levels of belief that the attacks could have been prevented, but Americans remain somewhat skeptical that the administration has been totally forthcoming in regard to what it knew prior to Sept. 11.
There's good news and bad news for Rice, regarding her image. Among those who know enough about her to respond, she has a 2-to-1 favorable versus unfavorable rating, 50% to 25%. But Rice's image has become somewhat more negative over the last five months. Last October, her unfavorable rating was only 16%.
It is unclear whether the public is following all of the nuances of what the Bush administration did or did not know before Sept. 11, but hearings similar to the one taking place this week leave an overall impression that can have a major impact on how people may view a political figure in the future.
The Economy
Then there is the economy. All of Gallup's ratings of public opinion on the economy have drifted downward over the past three months, after rising at the end of last year and into the beginning of this year.
Which way will consumer confidence measures go from this point on? There's a good chance that they may become more positive, largely because of the Labor Department report issued late last week showing a dramatic uptick in the number of new jobs in the country -- data that the Bush administration is hoping will pep up consumer confidence (and of course, increase the number of votes for Bush this fall).
Both major presidential candidates have repeatedly brought up the issue of taxes. Bush is convinced that his tax cuts have been a significant factor in helping the economy, while Kerry wants to roll back the tax cuts for the wealthy.
The coming April 15 deadline for filing income taxes will remind many of us exactly how much we are paying in taxes, for better or worse. All in all, there continues to be little evidence that Americans are excited about the idea of tax cuts. A recent Associated Press poll found that Americans would prefer balancing the budget to cutting taxes by a 61% to 36% margin.
The other issue potentially affecting the public's views of the economy is gas prices. The recent April 1-4 Pew Research Center poll showed that Americans are paying more attention to the price of gasoline than they are to Iraq or the 9/11 commission hearings. Bush's approval rating on handling energy policy dropped to 29% in the Pew poll.
Other Campaign Issues
In addition to developments relating to Iraq, terrorism, and the economy, other issues may affect the outcome of the presidential campaign.
Gallup's analysis suggests that Bush's positions are in tune with the majority of Americans on moral issues such as same-sex marriage and partial-birth abortion. At the same time, Kerry has a distinct advantage over Bush when voters are asked which candidate would do a better job of handling such domestic issues as healthcare, poverty, and Social Security.
The new Medicare and prescription drug plan Bush pushed through Congress last fall has not stirred a great deal of excitement among Americans. Gallup data suggest that a majority of people aged 65 and older now disapprove of the plan -- a drop in support from late last year. Only about one in four (26%) seniors believe that the plan will actually end up benefiting those it is designed to help.
As Earth Day approaches, Gallup Poll data continue to suggest that the environment is not developing into an issue of major concern for voters. In his April 5 analysis (see "Bush and the Environment: Potential for Trouble?" in Related Items), Gallup special scholar Riley Dunlap found that Americans are actually somewhat less worried about the environment now than they have been in recent years -- a state of affairs brought about in part by the attention focused on terrorism and the Iraq war. Bush's ratings on the environment drifted downward somewhat, but not as dramatically as many environmentalists would assume.
It appears that Kerry and the Democrats will have to work hard to make the environment a major issue this year. Only about 2% of Americans spontaneously mention the environment as the most important problem facing the nation today.
Sports
The professional baseball season begins this week, even as Monday night finds the college basketball season coming to an end with the NCAA finals in San Antonio.
The big cloud hovering over the baseball season this year is drugs. Most baseball fans believe that players should undergo mandatory testing for drugs, and despite the protestations of his attorneys to the contrary, about two-thirds (64%) of baseball fans believe that San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds has probably used steroids.
The Masters Golf Tournament is also taking place this week in Augusta, Ga. There are fewer golf fans than baseball fans (36% of Americans are golf fans, as opposed to 45% who are baseball fans), but there will undoubtedly be a great deal of interest this week in Tiger Woods' attempt to break out of a slump and challenge for the lead of the first major tournament of the new year.