More than a year after the U.S.-led invasion -- and seven months
after Gallup reported the results of the first scientific survey of
opinion in Baghdad -- much has changed in Iraq.
Gallup, in partnership with CNN and USA Today,
conducted 3,444 70-minute, in-home, in-person interviews with a
nationally representative sample of Iraqis in 350 separate
locations throughout the country in late March and early April
2004. The resulting data offer a wealth of insight on the current
climate of opinion among Iraqis nationwide.
While 61% of all Iraqis believe that Saddam Hussein's ouster was
"worth" any hardships they have personally suffered since the
invasion, opinion is sharply divided on whether the country itself
is better off. Forty-two percent believe the country is in a better
situation than before the invasion (31% "somewhat better off," 11%
"much better off"), but nearly as many (39%) hold a contrary
assessment (24% "somewhat worse off," 15% "much worse off").
Similarly, the third of Iraqis (33%) who say the coalition invasion
of Iraq has "done more good than harm" are offset by a larger
proportion (46%) who say that thus far, the invasion has "done more
harm than good."
Furthermore, sentiment often divides sharply along ethnic and
sectarian lines. For example, members of Iraq's Kurdish minority
are overwhelmingly likely (87%) to view the country as better off
now (somewhat: 51%, much: 36%). However, only a third of Iraq's
ethnic Arabs (33%) share this positive appraisal (somewhat better
off: 27%, much better off: 5%).
Similarly, perspectives and perceptions in overwhelmingly Sunni
areas* can differ dramatically from those in strongly Shiite
areas**. One particularly stark example is the fact that nearly
three-quarters (74%) of those in overwhelmingly Shiite provinces
and neighborhoods believe that the ouster of Hussein was "worth"
any subsequent hardships, while only about a quarter (28%) of those
in heavily Sunni areas share this assessment.
Significant Support Voiced for Attacks on American
Troops
While less than a third (29%) of all Iraqis say they feel
attacks on U.S. forces are either somewhat (17%) or completely
(13%) justifiable from a moral standpoint, an additional one in
five Iraqis (22%) feel such attacks are "sometimes justified,
sometimes not." Only a quarter of all Iraqis say they view attacks
on U.S. forces as "completely" unjustified.
Harsh as they are, the overall numbers obscure important
regional variations in sentiment. It is true that, in both the
Sunni and Shiite heartlands, roughly one Iraqi in four views such
attacks as completely unjustified (Shiite: 25%, Sunni:
24%). But in these same strongly Sunni areas, this proportion is
surpassed by the near-third (30%) who say they view such attacks as
"completely justified" -- a sentiment expressed by just 8% in
strongly Shiite areas. And in the "Sunni triangle" governorates of
al Anbar (which includes both Fallujah and Ramadi) and Salah ad Din
(which includes Hussein's home town of Tikrit), fully 62% of those
interviewed by Gallup say they view attacks on U.S. forces as
completely justified.
When Gallup polled a representative cross section of Baghdad's
residents last summer, nearly two-thirds (64%) of Baghdad's
residents told us they thought attacks on U.S. forces were either
somewhat (22%) or completely (42%) morally unjustified.
Seven months later, the proportion of Baghdadis willing to condemn
such attacks has fallen to just half (33%) its previous level
(somewhat unjustifiable: 19%, completely unjustifiable: 14%), with
the proportion willing to offer a blanket condemnation falling by
two-thirds.
Report Card on Coalition Provisional
Authority
The overall performance of the Coalition Provisional Authority
(CPA) earns a poor appraisal from Iraqis: Just one in four give it
either a "4" (20%) or "5" (5%) "very good" rating on a 5-point
scale, while 4 in 10 give it either a "2" (21%) or a "1" (21%)
"very poor" assessment. There is also evidence of disillusionment
-- nearly two-thirds (64%) say the actions taken by the CPA have
turned out worse than they expected at the time of the invasion,
while just 22% say it has performed better than they initially
expected.
Nor is there a perception that the CPA's performance has
improved in recent months. Just over a third (37%) say the CPA is
performing about as well as it was two months ago, but those who
think its performance has improved over this period (23%) are
outnumbered by those who think it has deteriorated (35%).
When this same question was asked in Baghdad in late August and
early September 2003, half of the capital's residents (50%) saw the
CPA as doing a better job than it had been two months previously,
while just 14% thought its performance had worsened. The
corresponding percentages among Baghdadis seven months later have
shifted to just 8% and 52%, respectively.
U.S. Troops -- Liberators, a "Necessary Evil" or
Neither?
Iraqis' attitudes toward foreign troops have also hardened
considerably. When asked how they now view coalition forces, 71% of
all Iraqis choose the description "mostly as occupiers" while 19%
say "mostly as liberators"; another 8% volunteer that they view
coalition troops as both occupiers and liberators. Within
Iraq's 15 non-Kurdish governorates, just 7% say they view coalition
forces mostly as liberators, while 81% view them primarily as an
occupying force.
In contrast, when Iraqis are asked how they viewed coalition
forces "at the time of the invasion last spring," sentiment is
evenly divided. Forty-three percent say they initially viewed
coalition forces as liberators, while an identical percentage say
they viewed them as occupiers from the outset (9% saw them as
playing both roles).
Perceptions of U.S. forces' conduct are negative, and appear to
be hardening -- though just 6% of those interviewed say they (or
members of their households) have had personal contact with
American troops. Only about a third of Iraqis say they think U.S.
forces have conducted themselves fairly (24%) or very (10%) well,
while nearly 6 in 10 say fairly (29%) or very (29%)
badly.
When Gallup asked this same question in Baghdad last year,
positive appraisals of the conduct of U.S. forces (48% fairly well,
10% very well) were twice as common as negative ones (20% fairly
badly, 9% very badly). Now that situation has been completely
reversed: Baghdad's residents are currently eight times as likely
to say that U.S. forces have conducted themselves fairly (44%) or
very (37%) badly as to say they have acted fairly (9%) or very
(less than 1%) well.
One specific Iraqi complaint against U.S. troops is the
widespread perception -- whether correct or incorrect -- that they
have been indiscriminant in their use of force when civilians are
nearby. Nationwide, just 11% say they think U.S. forces are "trying
a lot" to keep ordinary Iraqis from being killed or wounded during
exchanges of gunfire, 18% say they are "trying only a little," and
two-thirds (67%) believe they are "not trying at all." In Baghdad
-- an area initially supportive of the conduct of American forces
-- 81% choose this final response
option.
Nevertheless, ambivalence remains regarding the likely
short-term effect of any prompt withdrawal of coalition
forces.
While more than half (57%) say they think the U.S. and British
forces ought to leave in the next few months, a slim majority (51%)
also agree with the notion that recent attacks (against
civilians) serve to "emphasize the need for the continued presence
of coalition forces in Iraq." And despite their concern for what
they regard as excessive civilian casualties during coalition
clashes with insurgents, far more Iraqis say that "if the coalition
left Iraq today" they would feel less safe (53%), than say they
would feel more safe (28%). Not surprisingly in view of the recent
spate bombing attacks, Iraqis widely believe the conditions for
creating internal peace and stability have worsened (54%) rather
than improved (25%) in recent months.
Despite the downbeat nature of many of the poll's findings,
there are three hopeful notes in the survey -- and they are
important ones. First, Iraqis express strong support for the
establishment of a democratic, parliamentary form of government.
Second, following the handover of sovereignty on June 30, they back
the idea of a temporary caretaker government with limited powers,
whose main responsibility would be to organize nationwide elections
-- a concept strikingly similar to that just now proposed by U.N.
special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi. And finally, they remain strikingly
optimistic about their country's long-term future.
Details on these more optimistic findings will be presented
tomorrow in another special release on the Gallup Poll of Iraq.
*Defined hereafter as the "Sunni triangle" governorates of al
Anbar and Salah ad Din, the north central governorates of Ninawah
and Tamin, and the strongly Sunni Baghdad neighborhood of
Adhamiyah.
**Defined hereafter as the governorates of Basra, Dhi Qar,
Muthanna, Maysan, Karbala, Najaf, Qadasiyah and Wasit, and the
strongly Shiite Baghdad neighborhoods of Sadr City and
Kazimiya.
