Results from Gallup's recent nationwide poll of Iraq* indicate a
clear desire among Iraqis for a government directly accountable to
popular will. As reported earlier (see "Iraqis Consider Their
Nation's Future" in Related Items), a multiparty parliamentary
democracy is the most widely preferred form of government among the
seven models tested -- 40% of Iraqis would prefer such a
government, while just 12% hope for "an Islamic theocracy in which
religious leaders or mullahs have a strong influence, such as in
Iran." Furthermore, Iraqis are nearly four times as likely to agree
that their country needs "an Iraqi democracy" (84%) as they are to
accept the assertion that Iraq needs a government "made up mostly
of religious leaders" (22%).
Despite these sentiments, only about a third of Iraqis (31%) say
they support the notion of separating religion from government,
while 58% oppose the notion. Even more dramatically, a solid
majority of Iraqis believe that the country's religious leaders
ought to play a direct role -- if not the primary role --
in a wide range of legislative, judicial, and administrative
functions. Three-quarters or more of Iraqis told Gallup that
religious leaders ought to play a direct role in:
- drafting Iraq's next constitution (78%)
- drafting national legislation -- laws to which all Iraqis would
be subject (78%)
- deciding what may be broadcast on television or published in
newspapers (77%)
- deciding how women may dress in public (76%)
- determining the country's secular family law (governing such
issues as marriage, divorce, and property inheritance) (82%)
- determining what will be taught in the country's schools
(74%)
Nearly as many think the country's clerics should play a role in
determining Iraq's foreign policy (66%) and deciding who may run
for public office (71%).
Should the Clergy's Power Be Limited?
But how much authority do Iraqis really want their
country's clerics to be able to exert in each of these areas?
Iraqis who said they thought clerics should be involved in a given
area were further asked:
"Do you think the role of religious leaders should be to advise
government officials who have this responsibility, or do you think
that religious leaders themselves -- rather than government
officials -- should be put directly in charge of this
function?"
In general, Iraqis' clear preference is for religious leaders to
play an advisory role in the seven legal and regulatory areas
Gallup tested, rather than to be vested with direct authority. Less
than a quarter of Iraqis believe the clergy ought to be put
directly in charge of writing national legislation (21%),
determining secular family law (17%), deciding television and
newspaper content (15%), deciding who may run for office (15%), or
how women may dress in public (15%). Only about one in eight Iraqis
want religious leaders to determine what may be taught in schools
(13%) or what the country's foreign policy will be
(13%).
Interestingly, however, nearly a quarter of Iraqis (24%) express
the belief that the country's next constitution ought to be
directly drafted by religious leaders. This wish was expressed by
roughly half (49%) of those interviewed in the conservative,
heavily Shiite south central provinces of Karbala, Najaf, al
Qadisiyah, and Wasit.
Sharp Regional Differences Over Scope of Clerics'
Powers
As is the case with many of the poll's findings, the overall
numbers obscure important variations across Iraq's geographic,
ethnic, and sectarian "fault lines." For example, while most Iraqis
reject the separation of mosque and state, nearly three-quarters
(73%) of those in the heavily Kurdish northeastern province of
Sulaymaniyah support this notion. Less than 1% of residents in the
Kurdish north believe that Iraq needs a government made up
primarily of religious leaders -- an assertion with which one in
five Iraqis nationwide (22%) agree.
The preference for establishing an Islamic theocracy along
Iranian lines is a minority sentiment everywhere, but support for
this option is significantly higher in the south central provinces
of Karbala, Najaf, al Qadisiyah, and Wasit (25%) than it is in the
heavily Sunni parts of the country (3%).
There is also evidence of rising support for theocratic rule in
Sadr City (formerly Saddam City) -- home to roughly a fifth of the
total population of Baghdad. Nearly a third (31%) of Sadr City's
residents would prefer that the country establish an Islamic
theocracy, this is up from just 20% when Gallup first asked this
question late last summer. Similarly, support for separation of
mosque and state among Sadr City's residents has fallen from nearly
a third (31%) in August 2003 to just 12% in the current
poll.
Other indications of Sadr City's current attitudinal climate --
some of which may reflect the support that some Sadr City residents
have provided to radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr -- include:
- 49% of Sadr City residents believe that the clergy should be in
charge of drafting Iraq's next constitution.
- 49% think clerics should determine how women may dress in
public.
- 42% believe clerics should determine Iraq's foreign
policy.
- 40% think the clergy should determine who may run for public
office.
