With Election Pending, Ivoirians Divided on Their President

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo may need to win over a divided electorate if presidential elections take place in Ivory Coast later this year as planned. Gallup surveyed in Ivory Coast in April and found Ivoirians slightly more likely to disapprove (52%) than approve (47%) of Gbagbo's job performance.

Gbagbo and other leading presidential contenders began campaigning last fall only to have the election originally scheduled for October postponed indefinitely because of problems with voter registration. Once a nation of stability and prosperity, Ivory Coast is today tenuously held together by international peacekeepers after years of internal conflict. Armed rebels control the northern half the country, while the Ivory Coast government maintains control over the South.

Despite the divide, Ivoirians from both sides are eligible to vote in this year's presidential elections. Gallup Polls show that respondents in the rebel-controlled North are less likely to approve of Gbagbo's leadership than respondents in the government-controlled South. In the South, the majority of respondents (55%) approve of Gbagbo's leadership. In the North, the majority (58%) disapprove.

The divide in opinions may have some roots in recent history. At the outset of the northern rebellion in September 2002, rebels accused the Gbagbo government of coming to power illegitimately. Gbagbo's rival in the 2000 presidential election -- the late General Robert Guei -- recruited many of the soldiers who started the rebellion.

Lower approval of Gbagbo in the rebel North could potentially jeopardize his chances of re-election. In addition, an opposition candidate could find some political traction with northern voters. Alassane Ouattara, an economist and former International Monetary Fund official, is considered a leading presidential candidate. In 2005, the Gbagbo government excluded Ouattara from standing in elections, and northern rebels saw his marginalization as symbolic of their own. Whether northern voters throw their support behind Ouattara or another opposition candidate in this year's election could ultimately decide the fate of the Gbagbo government.

For complete data sets or custom research from the more than 150 countries Gallup continually surveys, please contact worldpollpartners@gallup.com or call 202.715.3030.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in April 2009 in Ivory Coast. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.