Politics

Kerry/Edwards Enjoy Slight Lead

Edwards’ selection as vice president has little impact on presidential race

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of likely voters shows little change in the race for the White House, with Democratic presidential candidate, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, and his running mate, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, enjoying a slight four-point lead over President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. With independent candidates Ralph Nader and his running mate Peter Camejo included in the ballot, Kerry's lead is a point higher (five points). Bush's job approval rating is little changed from what it has been since May, and the favorable ratings of all four major candidates are also steady.

The poll, conducted July 8-11, which began two days after Kerry announced Edwards as his choice for vice president, finds Kerry/Edwards receiving 50% support among likely voters, compared with 46% for Bush/Cheney.

The new figures represent a slight movement toward Kerry, who had trailed Bush by one point in Gallup's June 21-23 poll. However, the difference is well within the poll's margin of error, suggesting no significant change in voter sentiment. The current horse race numbers are virtually identical to the findings in Gallup's early June polling.

With Nader/Camejo included in the ballot of likely voters, Kerry's lead over Bush increases to five points, 50% to 45%, with Nader receiving just 2% support. In the June 21-23 poll, Bush led Kerry by one point with Nader in the race (48% to 47%). The slight changes in poll numbers suggest little real change in voter sentiment.

Bush Approval at 47%

Bush's job approval rating has floated just below the 50% level since the beginning of May, though it first hit 49% at the end of January. Since then, it has risen as high as 53%, but has averaged about 48% for the past two months, ranging between 46% and 49% across six separate polls conducted since early May.

The 50% approval level is widely seen as a significant marker, since no president in the past half-century has been re-elected when his approval rating was below 50%, and all incumbents who sought re-election with approval above 50% were victorious. Several other polls also show that more people say Bush does not deserve re-election than say he does.

Favorable Ratings of Kerry and Edwards Higher Than Those of Bush and Cheney

Another indication that the Democrats currently have a slight edge over the Republicans is found in the favorable ratings of the four major candidates.

Kerry and Edwards each enjoy higher favorable ratings as well as significantly lower unfavorable ratings than either Bush or Cheney. These numbers are virtually the same as those obtained for Kerry and Bush in the June 21-23 poll, Cheney in the February 16-17 poll (the last time he was rated), and for Edwards in a January 29-February 1 poll (the last time he was rated).

The current ratings shown in the chart are among all Americans, but among likely voters, the numbers are slightly more positive for the Democratic candidates.

The most significant difference between all adults and likely voters is the seven-point higher unfavorable rating for Cheney among the latter, showing more voters with a negative than a positive opinion of the vice president. Also, as is to be expected, there are fewer "no opinion" respondents among voters than among the public at large.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 8-11, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the 491 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 514 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

Results for likely voters are based on the subsample of 706 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

 

Kerry/ Edwards

Bush/ Cheney

NEITHER (vol.)

OTHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

Likely Voters

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

50

46

2

*

2

2004 Jun 21-23

48

49

1

*

2

2003 Jun 3-6

50

44

2

1

3

2004 May 21-23

49

47

1

*

3

2004 May 7-9

47

48

2

1

2

2004 May 2-4

49

48

1

*

2

2004 Apr 16-18

46

51

2

*

1

2004 Apr 5-8

45

48

4

1

2

2004 Mar 26-28

47

51

1

--

1

2004 Mar 5-7

52

44

2

1

1

2004 Feb 16-17

55

43

1

*

1

2004 Feb 6-8

48

49

1

*

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

53

46

*

--

1

2004 Jan 9-11

43

55

1

*

1

Registered Voters

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

51

44

2

*

3

2004 Jun 21-23

49

45

2

1

3

2004 Jun 3-6

49

44

3

*

4

2004 May 21-23

48

46

2

*

4

2004 May 7-9

50

44

3

*

3

2004 May 2-4

47

47

2

1

3

2004 Apr 16-18

46

50

2

*

2

2004 Apr 5-8

48

46

3

1

3

2004 Mar 26-28

46

49

2

*

3

2004 Mar 5-7

50

45

2

1

2

2004 Feb 16-17

51

46

2

*

1

2004 Feb 6-8

49

48

1

*

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

51

46

1

--

2

2004 Jan 9-11

40

57

2

--

1

2003 Nov 10-12

46

52

1

--

1

2003 Sep 19-21

48

47

2

1

2

* Less than 0.5%

(vol.) Volunteered response

^

Vice Presidential candidates Edwards and Cheney added beginning with the July
8-11, 2004 survey.



Q.2/2A CONTINUED

 

Kerry/ Edwards

Bush/ Cheney

NEITHER (vol.)

OTHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

National Adults

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

51

43

3

*

3

2004 Jun 21-23

48

46

2

1

3

2004 Jun 3-6

48

44

4

*

4

2004 May 21-23

48

44

4

*

4

2004 May 7-9

51

43

3

*

3

2004 May 2-4

47

46

3

1

3

2004 Apr 16-18

46

49

2

1

2

2004 Apr 5-8

46

47

3

1

3

2004 Mar 26-28

46

48

3

*

3

2004 Mar 5-7

50

45

3

*

2

2004 Feb 16-17

51

44

3

*

2

2004 Feb 6-8

48

48

2

*

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

52

44

2

--

2

2004 Jan 9-11

40

57

2

--

1

2003 Nov 10-12

44

53

1

--

2

2003 Sep 19-21

47

48

2

1

2

* Less than 0.5%

(vol.) Volunteered response

^

Vice Presidential candidates Edwards and Cheney added beginning with the July 8-11, 2004 survey.



3. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates]?

3A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and Camejo, the independents]?

 

Kerry/
Edwards

Bush/
Cheney

Nader/
Camejo

NONE (vol.)

OTHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

Likely Voters

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

50

45

2

1

*

2

2004 Jun 21-23

47

48

3

*

*

2

2004 Jun 3-6

49

43

5

*

1

2

2004 May 21-23

47

46

4

1

*

2

2004 May 7-9

45

47

5

2

--

1

2004 May 2-4

47

47

3

1

*

2

2004 Apr 16-18

44

50

4

*

*

2

2004 Apr 5-8

43

47

4

2

1

3

2004 Mar 26-28

45

49

4

1

--

1

2004 Mar 5-7

50

44

2

1

1

2

Registered Voters

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

50

42

4

1

*

3

2004 Jun 21-23

46

45

6

*

1

2

2004 Jun 3-6

45

42

7

1

1

4

2004 May 21-23

46

44

6

1

*

3

2004 May 7-9

46

41

7

3

*

3

2004 May 2-4

44

45

6

1

1

3

2004 Apr 16-18

44

47

5

1

*

3

2004 Apr 5-8

46

45

5

2

*

2

2004 Mar 26-28

43

48

5

1

--

3

2004 Mar 5-7

47

45

5

1

*

2

National Adults

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

49

41

5

2

*

3

2004 Jun 21-23

45

45

6

1

1

2

2004 Jun 3-6

44

42

8

2

1

3

2004 May 21-23

46

42

6

2

1

3

2004 May 7-9

46

41

8

3

*

2

2004 May 2-4

44

44

7

1

1

3

2004 Apr 16-18

43

46

7

1

*

3

2004 Apr 5-8

45

45

5

2

1

2

2004 Mar 26-28

44

46

7

1

--

2

2004 Mar 5-7

47

44

5

1

1

2

* Less than 0.5%

(vol.) Volunteered response

^

Vice Presidential candidates Edwards, Cheney, and Camejo added beginning with the July 8-11, 2004 survey.



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

 


Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

%

%

%

2004 Jul 8-11

47

49

4

2004 Jun 21-23

48

49

3

2004 Jun 3-6

49

49

2

2004 May 21-23

47

49

4

2004 May 7-9

46

51

3

2004 May 2-4

49

48

3

2004 Apr 16-18

52

45

3

2004 Apr 5-8

52

45

3

2004 Mar 26-28

53

44

3

2004 Mar 8-11

50

47

3

2004 Mar 5-7

49

48

3

2004 Feb 16-17

51

46

3

2004 Feb 9-12

51

46

3

2004 Feb 6-8

52

44

4

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

49

48

3

2004 Jan 12-15

53

44

3

2004 Jan 9-11

59

38

3

2004 Jan 2-5

60

35

5



44. Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. First, ... How about...[ITEM A READ FIRST, THEN ITEMS B-D ROTATED]

A. George W. Bush

 

Favorable

Unfavorable

No opinion

%

%

%

2004 Jul 8-11

52

46

2

2004 Jun 21-23

53

45

2

2004 Apr 16-18

56

42

2

2004 Mar 26-28

57

41

2

2004 Feb 16-17

56

42

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

52

47

1

2004 Jan 2-5

65

35

*

* Less than 0.5%



B. Dick Cheney

 


Favorable


Unfavorable

Never
heard of

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2004 Jul 8-11

46

42

3

9

2004 Feb 16-17

45

42

3

10

2003 Oct 24-26

55

33

3

9

2003 Sep 19-21

54

36

3

7

2003 Jun 27-29 ^

54

34

3

9

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

61

28

2

9

2002 Sep 23-26

65

24

4

7

2002 Jul 26-28

57

30

3

10

2002 Jan 11-14

67

20

3

10

2001 Apr 20-22

64

22

3

11

2001 Mar 5-7

63

18

5

14

2001 Jan 15-16

61

23

5

11

2000 Dec 15-17

61

23

6

10

2000 Dec 2-4

58

23

8

11

2000 Nov 13-15

51

22

9

18

2000 Nov 13-15

53

22

8

17

2000 Sep 15-17

46

24

8

22

2000 Aug 18-19

54

21

5

20

2000 Aug 4-5

48

21

9

22

2000 Jul 25-26

51

14

12

23

^ Asked of a half sample



C. John Kerry

 


Favorable

Unfavorable

Never
heard of

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2004 Jul 8-11

56

34

2

8

2004 Jun 21-23

58

35

2

5

2004 Apr 16-18

54

37

3

6

2004 Mar 26-28

53

36

3

8

2004 Feb 16-17

60

26

4

10

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

61

23

6

10

2004 Jan 2-5 ^

31

32

19

18

2003 Nov 10-12 ^

31

24

26

19

2002 Dec 16-17 ^

31

13

32

24

1999 Feb 19-21 ^

30

9

39

22

^

WORDING: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry



D. John Edwards

 


Favorable

Unfavorable

Never
heard of

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2004 Jul 8-11

55

24

6

15

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

54

21

10

15

2004 Jan 2-5 ^

24

24

27

25

2003 Nov 10-12 ^

22

18

37

23

^

WORDING: North Carolina Senator John Edwards



Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/12358/KerryEdwards-Enjoy-Slight-Lead.aspx Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A +1 202.715.3030