Bush-Cheney Ticket Leads in Edwards' Home State

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of likely voters in North Carolina shows President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney with a healthy lead over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and his running mate, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in the race for the White House. While Edwards is personally quite popular among North Carolina voters, the addition of his name does not appear to give the Democratic ticket any greater appeal to the state's electorate than the Democratic candidates in 2000, when Vice President Al Gore and his running mate, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, lost to Bush and Cheney in that state by 13 points.

The poll, conducted July 9-11, three days after Kerry chose Edwards as the Democratic vice presidential candidate, shows Bush beating Kerry by six points among all registered voters in the state (49% to 43%), and by an even larger margin of 15 points among the most likely voters (54% to 39%). In both cases, independent candidate Ralph Nader and his running mate, Peter Camejo, receive 4% of the vote. In 2000, Bush won the state by a 56% to 43% margin.

This is despite Edwards' popularity in his home state -- 63% of registered voters in North Carolina view him favorably, while just 29% have an unfavorable view of him. By comparison, 55% of North Carolina voters view Bush favorably and 49% view Kerry favorably. 

While the poll shows the Democratic ticket no better off among likely voters than Gore and Lieberman were in the 2000 election, many voters believe the choice of Edwards as Kerry's running mate will influence their 2004 vote for president. About 3 in 10 say they are now more likely to vote for Kerry, while about 1 in 10 say they are less likely. About 6 in 10 say their vote is not affected one way or the other.

The poll also shows that among registered voters, 58% say Edwards shares their values, and 65% say he "cares about the needs of people like you."

Voters are more ambivalent about Edwards' political experience, with only 51% saying he has enough experience to be an effective president if it becomes necessary.

Republicans are portraying Edwards as a "liberal" and out of touch with Southern values, but most voters in North Carolina seem to disagree. Only 38% say the senator is too liberal, while 45% say his views are "about right" and another 6% say they are too conservative. Eleven percent are unsure.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 848 registered voters in North Carolina, aged 18 and older, conducted July 9-11, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Results are based on the subsample of 680 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 presidential election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Based on past voting history in North Carolina, turnout is assumed to be 50%.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates.  Would you vote for – [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?
2A. As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

3. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates.  Would you vote for – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates]?
3A. As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and Camejo, the independents]?

4. Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them.  How about -- [ITEM A READ, THEN ITEMS B-D ROTATED]?

            A. John Edwards

            B. John Kerry

            BASED ON 430 REGISTERED VOTERS IN FORM A

            C. George W. Bush

            BASED ON  418 REGISTERED VOTERS IN FORM B

5. Does having John Edwards as his running mate make you more likely to vote for John Kerry in November, less likely, or will it not have much effect on your vote?

Trends for Comparison:

Based on registered voters nationwide, following announcement of vice presidential running mate

6. Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each applies or doesn't apply to John Edwards.  How about – [RANDOM ORDER]?

            A. Shares your values

            B. Cares about the needs of people like you

            C. Has enough experience to be an effective president if it becomes necessary

7. Please say whether you think John Edwards' political views are too conservative, about right, or too liberal.