Domestic Issues Continue to Favor Kerry; International, Bush

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- As the Democratic Party's convention gets underway, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and the party's leaders will attempt to persuade Americans that Kerry can handle this year's key issues better than President George W. Bush. A recent Gallup Poll shows Kerry has an edge on domestic issues over Bush, but Bush is viewed as better able to handle international matters, particularly terrorism. When asked to choose which of four issues will be most important to their vote, registered voters say the economy by a small margin over Iraq, with terrorism and healthcare chosen less often. Voters' perceptions of the most important issue are strongly influenced by their partisanship, with Republicans saying terrorism is most important and Democrats saying the economy, closely followed by Iraq and healthcare. 

The new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll was conducted July 19-21, before the start of the Democratic convention. On an overall level, it shows that neither candidate has much of an advantage over the other in terms of responses to a general question asking the public about the two candidates' agreement with them on "the issues that matter most to you." Forty-seven percent say they agree with Bush on the issues that matter most to them, and 49% say the same about Kerry. However, Kerry receives a lower negative rating -- 42% disagree with him, while 50% disagree with Bush.

In terms of specific issues, the poll shows a continuing pattern in which the public perceives Kerry as better able to handle domestic issues and Bush better able to handle international issues. Of the six issues tested, Kerry has an advantage on the four domestic issues, while Bush leads on the two international issues.

The issue where Kerry is the strongest is healthcare -- 54% of Americans say he would do the better job on this issue, compared with 37% who say Bush, a 17-point advantage. Kerry has an 8-point advantage on the economy (51% to 43%), and a 7-point edge on education (50% to 43%). The candidates are rated similarly on taxes, with 48% saying Kerry is better on this issue and 46% saying Bush.

The candidates' relative positioning on domestic issues has changed little this year. Kerry has led Bush on the economy each of the four times it was measured this year, and he has led Bush on healthcare and education both times it has been tested. When "taxes" was last asked in March, Americans were evenly split as to which candidate would do the better job.

Bush's strengths continue to lie in the international realm, especially in terms of his ability to deal with terrorism. Bush has a sizeable 18-point advantage over Kerry as being better able to handle terrorism (56% to 38%) and a 5-point advantage on the situation in Iraq (49% to 44%). Bush's advantage on terrorism has been no less than 14 points in any of the four times it was measured this year. His edge on Iraq is somewhat higher now than it was in May and June, when his numerical advantage over Kerry was just 1 and 3 points, respectively.

When asked specifically about Iraq, the new poll shows that 45% of Americans think Bush has a "clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq," compared with 33% who say this about Kerry. It is likely that difference is because more Americans are apparently unsure about what Kerry's plans for Iraq are at this moment -- 11% have no opinion as to whether or not he has a clear plan.

Most Important Issue to the Vote

The poll also asked Americans to choose which of four issues -- the economy, Iraq, terrorism, and healthcare -- would be most important to their vote this fall. Twenty-eight percent of registered voters say the economy will be the most important issue to their vote, followed by Iraq (23%), terrorism (19%), and healthcare (16%).

Perceptions of the most important issue vary significantly by partisanship. Among Democratic registered voters, 31% say the economy is the most important issue, 28% say Iraq, and 24% say healthcare. Only 6% of Democrats say terrorism is the most important issue. That is in sharp contrast to the views of Republican registered voters, among whom terrorism (35%) is the top issue. Twenty-four percent of Republicans say the economy is most important, 17% say Iraq, and only 10% say healthcare.

Vote intention in the presidential election is strongly related to one's primary issue concern. But this is likely because Republicans and Democrats choose different issues as most important to their vote, rather than because voters' issue evaluations are influencing their choices between candidates. For example, 85% of registered voters who say terrorism is the most important issue are supporting Bush, compared with 12% support for Kerry. But the vast majority of voters who say terrorism is most important, 76% identify as Republicans. Even though relatively few Democrats say terrorism is the top issue, those who do still support Kerry by a wide margin. 

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted July 19-21. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

12. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with -- [ROTATED: George W. Bush/John Kerry] -- on the issues that matter most to you.

A. George W. Bush

B. John Kerry

13. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president this year -- [ROTATED: the economy, terrorism, the situation in Iraq, (or) healthcare]?

14. Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. The economy

B. The situation in Iraq

C. Terrorism

D. Healthcare

E. Education

F. Taxes

Q.27-28 ROTATED

27. Do you think George W. Bush does -- or does not -- have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?