Bush Retains Lead, Up by Eight Points

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush retains a significant eight-point lead over Democratic candidate, John Kerry, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 24-26. In a two-way ballot among likely voters, Bush receives 52% and Kerry 44%, compared with a 55% to 42% margin measured Sept. 13-15.

In the three-way ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader, Bush's margin is also eight points, 52% to 44%, with 3% support for Nader.

Among the larger group of registered voters, Bush leads by 54% to 41% in the two-way ballot, up from a 52% to 44% reading in mid-September. The three-way ballot among registered voters is now 53% to 42% for Bush, with Nader at 3%. The mid-September three-way ballot reading showed a 50% to 42% advantage for Bush among registered voters, with Nader at 4%. All of these changes among registered voters are within the poll's margin of error.

Bush Approval at 54%

Bush's overall job approval rating among the general public is at 54%, up two points since mid-September, but almost six points higher than his average for May through August. The last time Gallup measured a higher approval rating for Bush was in a Jan. 9-11 poll, before the start of the Democratic primaries and caucuses.

Terrorism remains Bush's strongest issue, with 62% of likely voters approving of his handling of that issue. Voters are a little more likely to approve (52%) than disapprove (46%) of Bush's handling of the economy, and by 50% to 40% they approve of his dealing with the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

On the issue of Iraq, voters are about evenly divided in their approval (50%) and disapproval (48%) of Bush. Also, when asked about his handling of "relations with other countries," 57% of likely voters approve, though only 49% approve when the same issue is worded as "foreign affairs." (Half the sample was asked one version, the other half the other version.)

Bush vs. Kerry on Issues

Among likely voters, the issue of terrorism has risen in importance since July, with 35% now saying it is the most important issue. This rise in importance is related to Bush's better position in the polls since July, as voters who say that issue is the most important overwhelmingly support Bush (by 87% to 12% in the current poll).

If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president this year -- [ROTATED: the economy, terrorism, the situation in Iraq, (or) healthcare]?

Likely voters who choose any of the other issues as the most important favor Kerry -- who leads in the current poll by 59% to 37% among voters picking the economy, 64% to 31% among voters citing Iraq, and 71% to 23% among those saying healthcare is the most important issue.

When asked whose policies would move the country in the right direction, voters clearly favor Bush over Kerry. By a margin of 49% to 44%, likely voters say Kerry's policies will move the country in the wrong, rather than the right, direction. However, by a margin of 54% to 44%, the same voters say Bush's polices will move the country in the right direction.

Next, do you think the policies being proposed by each of the following presidential candidates would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

Bush also fares better than Kerry on five major issues measured in the poll. By margins of 6 to 23 percentage points, likely voters are more prone to say that Bush would better handle each issue than would Kerry.

Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 24-26, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 758 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 926 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the 425 registered voters in the Form A half-sample and 501 registered voters in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

Q.2/2A CONTINUED

3. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates]?

3A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and Camejo, the independents]?

Q.3/3A CONTINUED

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. The economy

B. The situation in Iraq

C. Terrorism

D. Foreign affairs

BASED ON 460 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

E. The conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians

BASED ON 546 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

F. Relations with other countries

BASED ON 546 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

9. Next, do you think the policies being proposed by each of the following presidential candidates would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. John Kerry

B. George W. Bush