GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- John Kerry won the debate Thursday night, 53% to 37%, according to a random sample of 615 registered voters who watched the event. Almost half of the viewers said they felt more favorable about the senator because of the debate, and 60% said Kerry expressed himself more clearly than did President Bush.
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate -- [ROTATED: John Kerry (or) George W. Bush]?
|
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Overall |
53 |
37 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
Republicans |
17 |
71 |
1 |
10 |
1 |
Independents |
60 |
29 |
* |
10 |
1 |
Democrats |
87 |
8 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
Male |
53 |
37 |
1 |
9 |
* |
Female |
53 |
38 |
* |
8 |
1 |
Voting for Kerry (pre-debate) |
93 |
3 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
Voting for Bush (pre-debate) |
19 |
68 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||
(vol.) Volunteered response |
Democrats rallied behind Kerry's performance by 87% to 8%, while Republicans rallied behind Bush's performance by a somewhat smaller margin, 71% to 17%. But independents chose Kerry by a two-to-one margin, 60% to 29%.
Among viewers who indicated in the pre-debate survey that they intended to vote for Kerry, 93% thought Kerry won the debate and only 3% said Bush did.
Bush's supporters were not as convinced their candidate won -- choosing Bush by 68% to 19%, with 11% saying it was a tie.
Men and women expressed virtually identical views in favor of Kerry.
Despite the positive assessment, viewers said they favored Bush in handling the war in Iraq and serving as commander in chief, little changed from opinions expressed before the debate. And a majority of viewers said it was Bush who better demonstrated he is tough enough for the job.
The poll shows that 46% of viewers said they felt more favorable toward Kerry as a result of the debate, while just 13% felt less favorable. By comparison, just 21% of viewers felt more favorable toward Bush, and 17% felt less favorable.
How has your opinion of John Kerry/George W. Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Kerry -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much? [Names rotated.]
More favorable |
Less |
Not changed much |
No |
|
Kerry |
46% |
13 |
41 |
* |
Bush |
21% |
17 |
62 |
* |
* Less than 0.5% |
However, viewers did not change their minds about who would do a better job in Iraq or better serve as the country's military leader.
Prior to the debate, viewers chose Bush over Kerry in handling the Iraq war by 54% to 40%. After the debate, the comparable figures were essentially unchanged, 54% to 43%.
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle the situation in Iraq.
Kerry |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
||||
2004 Sep 30 (Post-debate) |
43% |
54 |
1 |
2 |
2004 Sep 28-29 (Pre-debate) |
40% |
54 |
2 |
4 |
(vol.) Volunteered response |
Similarly, viewers pointed to Bush as the candidate they would trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief -- before the debate by 55% to 42%, and after the debate by 54% to 44%.
Who do you trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief of the military -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]?
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||||
2004 Sep 30 (Post-debate) |
44% |
54 |
1 |
* |
1 |
2004 Sep 28-29 (Pre-debate) |
42% |
55 |
* |
1 |
2 |
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||
(vol.) Volunteered response |
Viewers saw Kerry as more articulate in the debate than Bush (60% to 32%), though they divided equally as to which candidate had a better understanding of the issues (41% each).
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described John Kerry or George W. Bush during tonight's debate. How about -- [Random Order]?
2004 Sep 30 |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
pct. pts. |
||
Expressed himself more clearly |
60 |
32 |
+28 |
|
Had a good understanding of the issues |
41 |
41 |
0 |
|
Agreed with you more on the issues you care about |
46 |
49 |
-3 |
|
Was more believable |
45 |
50 |
-5 |
|
Was more likable |
41 |
48 |
-7 |
|
Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job |
37 |
54 |
-17 |
|
+ |
Advantage indicates Kerry lead |
|||
- |
Advantage indicates Bush lead |
Viewers leaned toward Bush on which candidate agreed with them on issues, who was more believable, and who was more likable. And by 54% to 37%, viewers said Bush better demonstrated he is tough enough for the job.
These results are based on a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted Thursday night immediately after the end of the presidential debate, which ended at 10:30 p.m. Eastern time. Respondents in the sample were first interviewed Sept. 28-29, when they indicated they expected to watch the debate and that they were willing to be called when the debate finished.
In that pre-debate survey, 52% of the viewers who were included in Thursday night's sample said they supported Bush and 44% supported Kerry, similar to the vote preference measured among likely voters in the Sept. 24-26 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Thirty-six percent of Thursday night's viewers identified themselves as Republicans, 32% as independents, and 32% as Democrats.
Survey Methods
All results are based on telephone interviews with 615 registered voters, aged 18 and older, who watched the presidential debate Sept. 30, 2004. Respondents were first interviewed Sept. 28-29, 2004, when they indicated there was some chance they would watch Thursday's debate and were willing to be called back. For results based on the total sample of debate watchers, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.
1. Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate -- [ROTATED: John Kerry (or) George W. Bush]?
|
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||||
2004 Sep 30 |
53% |
37 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
(vol.) Volunteered response |
Trends for Comparison:
|
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
Gore/Bush 2000 |
|||||
2000 Oct 17 |
46% |
44 |
* |
10 |
* |
2000 Oct 11 |
36% |
49 |
1 |
13 |
1 |
2000 Oct 3 |
48% |
41 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|
|
|
|||
Clinton/Dole 1996 |
% |
% |
% |
||
1996 Oct 16 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
||
1996 Oct 6 |
51 |
32 |
17 |
|
|
|
NONE IN PARTICULAR (vol.) |
|
|
Clinton/Bush/Perot 1992 |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
1992 Oct 19 |
28 |
28 |
37 |
7 |
* |
1992 Oct 16-18 |
58 |
16 |
15 |
7 |
4 |
1992 Oct 11 |
30 |
16 |
47 |
5 |
2 |
* Less than 0.5% |
|
|
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
||
Dukakis/Bush 1988 |
|||||
1988 Sep 27-28 |
38% |
29 |
31 |
2 |
|
|
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
||
Mondale/Reagan 1984 |
|||||
1984 Oct 21 |
40% |
43 |
-- |
17 |
|
1984 Sep 28-30 |
54% |
35 |
8 |
3 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
Q.2-3 ROTATED
2. How has your opinion of John Kerry been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Kerry -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?
More favorable |
Less |
Not changed much |
No |
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
||||
2004 Sep 30 |
46% |
13 |
41 |
* |
* Less than 0.5% |
3. How has your opinion of George W. Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Bush -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?
More favorable |
Less |
Not changed much |
No |
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
||||
2004 Sep 30 |
21% |
17 |
62 |
* |
* Less than 0.5% |
Trends for Comparison:
More favorable |
Less |
Not changed much |
No |
|
Al Gore |
% |
% |
% |
% |
2000 Oct 17 |
29 |
22 |
49 |
-- |
2000 Oct 11 |
24 |
16 |
60 |
-- |
2000 Oct 3 |
27 |
18 |
55 |
* |
George W. Bush |
||||
2000 Oct 17 |
31 |
17 |
51 |
1 |
2000 Oct 11 |
40 |
12 |
47 |
1 |
2000 Oct 3 |
34 |
14 |
52 |
* |
Bill Clinton |
||||
1992 Oct 19 |
27 |
22 |
50 |
1 |
1992 Oct 11 |
29 |
14 |
57 |
* |
George H. W. Bush |
||||
1992 Oct 19 |
29 |
25 |
46 |
-- |
1992 Oct 11 |
13 |
24 |
62 |
1 |
Ross Perot |
||||
1992 Oct 19 |
63 |
5 |
32 |
-- |
1992 Oct 11 |
62 |
5 |
32 |
-- |
* Less than 0.5% |
4. Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle the situation in Iraq.
Kerry |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
||||
2004 Sep 30 (Post-debate) |
43% |
54 |
1 |
2 |
2004 Sep 28-29 (Pre-debate) |
40% |
54 |
2 |
4 |
(vol.) Volunteered response |
5. Who do you trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief of the military -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]?
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||||
2004 Sep 30 (Post-debate) |
44% |
54 |
1 |
* |
1 |
2004 Sep 28-29 (Pre-debate) |
42% |
55 |
* |
1 |
2 |
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||
(vol.) Volunteered response |
6. Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described John Kerry or George W. Bush during tonight's debate. How about -- [Random Order]?
A. Agreed with you more on the issues you care about
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||||
2004 Sep 30 |
46% |
49 |
2 |
3 |
* |
Trends for Comparison:
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Gore/Bush 2000 |
|||||
2000 Oct 17 |
45% |
51 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2000 Oct 11 |
43% |
52 |
4 |
1 |
* |
B. Expressed himself more clearly
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||||
2004 Sep 30 |
60% |
32 |
7 |
1 |
* |
Trends for Comparison:
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Gore/Bush 2000 |
|||||
2000 Oct 17 |
57% |
33 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
2000 Oct 11 |
47% |
39 |
13 |
* |
1 |
C. Had a good understanding of the issues
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||||
2004 Sep 30 |
41% |
41 |
17 |
1 |
* |
Trends for Comparison:
|
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Clinton/Bush/Perot 1992 |
||||||
1992 Oct 19 |
41% |
33 |
18 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1992 Oct 11 |
28% |
39 |
26 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
D. Was more believable
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||||
2004 Sep 30 |
45% |
50 |
4 |
* |
1 |
Trends for Comparison:
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Gore/Bush 2000 |
|||||
2000 Oct 17 |
41% |
52 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
2000 Oct 11 |
38% |
51 |
9 |
2 |
* |
E. Was more likable
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||||
2004 Sep 30 |
41% |
48 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
Trends for Comparison:
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Gore/Bush 2000 |
|||||
2000 Oct 17 |
31% |
60 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
2000 Oct 11 |
31% |
56 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
F. Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job
|
|
BOTH/ EQUALLY (vol.) |
|
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||||
2004 Sep 30 |
37% |
54 |
8 |
1 |
* |
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||
(vol.) Volunteered response |
SUMMARY TABLE: KERRY VS. BUSH ON QUALITIES AND CHARACTERISTICS
2004 Sep 30 |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
pct. pts. |
||
Expressed himself more clearly |
60 |
32 |
+28 |
|
Had a good understanding of the issues |
41 |
41 |
0 |
|
Agreed with you more on the issues you care about |
46 |
49 |
-3 |
|
Was more believable |
45 |
50 |
-5 |
|
Was more likable |
41 |
48 |
-7 |
|
Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job |
37 |
54 |
-17 |
|
+ |
Advantage indicates Kerry lead |
|||
- |
Advantage indicates Bush lead |
Q.7-8 ROTATED
7. In the debate tonight, overall, do you think John Kerry's criticism of George W. Bush was fair or unfair?
Fair |
Unfair |
No opinion |
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||
2004 Sep 30 |
63% |
34 |
3 |
8. In the debate tonight, overall, do you think George W. Bush's criticism of John Kerry was fair or unfair?
Fair |
Unfair |
No opinion |
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
|||
2004 Sep 30 |
68% |
28 |
4 |