skip to main content
Hillary Clinton, Giuliani Early Favorites for 2008

Hillary Clinton, Giuliani Early Favorites for 2008

A look at the next presidential election

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Even though George W. Bush has not yet been inaugurated for his second term, it is never too early for political pundits and news junkies alike to speculate as to which candidates will contest the 2008 presidential election. In its most recent poll, Gallup asked Democrats and Republicans for their preferences as to their respective parties' presidential nominees in 2008. The results show New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as the Democrats' top choice and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani as the Republicans' current favorite.

The poll, conducted Nov. 7-10, asked Democrats and Republicans in an open-ended format whom they wanted to be their respective parties' presidential nominees in 2008. Interviewers followed up with a question asking each group of partisans to give their preferences among their parties' leading contenders.

The Democrats

Democrats appear to have given some thought as to whom they would like their party to nominate for president in 2008 -- two in three Democrats gave a response to the open-ended question. Overall, 25% of Democrats (which includes independents who say they lean to the Democratic Party) say they would like Clinton to be the nominee. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 nominee, is the next most frequently mentioned person, at 15%. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who unsuccessfully sought the 2004 presidential nomination before being chosen as Kerry's vice presidential running mate, is the choice of 7% of Democrats. Among the others mentioned are Sen.-elect Barack Obama of Illinois (3%) and former Vice President Al Gore (2%), the 2000 nominee.

Three percent of Democrats mention former President Bill Clinton, who is constitutionally ineligible to be president since he has already served two full terms in that office.

Looking ahead to four years from now, who do you want to be the Democratic Party presidential nominee in 2008 if you had to choose today? [OPEN-ENDED AND CODE; ALLOW ONE RESPONSE]

BASED ON 465 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

 

2004 Nov 7-10

%

Hillary Clinton

25

John Kerry

15

John Edwards

7

Bill Clinton

3

Barack Obama

3

Al Gore

2

 

Other candidate

9

None/No opinion

36

When asked to choose just between leading Democratic contenders Hillary Clinton and Edwards, a majority of Democrats, 55%, say they prefer Clinton, while 39% choose Edwards.

There is a decided gender gap among Democrats on this question. Clinton leads Edwards by a 59% to 36% margin among female Democrats. Among male Democrats, Clinton still leads, but by just six percentage points, 50% to 44%.

The Republicans

More than half of Republicans could not answer the open-ended question on their party's next nominee, suggesting many have not given it much thought, in part because George W. Bush ran uncontested for the Republican nomination this year. Not surprisingly, there is little consensus even among Republicans who do make a choice as to whom they might want to be the standard-bearer in 2008. Ten percent of Republicans each mention Arizona Sen. John McCain (who unsuccessfully sought the 2000 nomination) and Giuliani, both of whom actively campaigned for Bush this year. Seven percent mention Secretary of State Colin Powell, one of the most popular figures in government but also one who declined to run for president in 1996 and 2000. Also receiving mention were Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (brother of the current president), national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Like Clinton, Schwarzenegger is ineligible to be president, but for a different reason: Schwarzenegger is not a native-born American, one of the few qualifications for the office of president set forth in the Constitution.

Looking ahead to four years from now when George Bush will have finished his two terms in office, who do you want to be the Republican Party presidential nominee in 2008 if you had to choose today? [OPEN-ENDED AND CODE; ALLOW ONE RESPONSE]

BASED ON 505 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

 

2004 Nov 7-10

%

John McCain

10

Rudy Giuliani

10

Colin Powell

7

Jeb Bush

3

Condoleezza Rice

2

Bill Frist

2

Arnold Schwarzenegger

2

 

Other candidate

12

None/No opinion

52

When asked for their preferences among the leading Republican contenders -- Giuliani, McCain, and Jeb Bush -- 47% of Republicans choose Giuliani, 27% McCain and 17% Bush.

Preferences among these three candidates vary somewhat by political ideology. Republicans who identify themselves as conservatives (about two in three Republicans) show higher levels of support for Jeb Bush and somewhat lower support for Giuliani and McCain than do moderate or liberal Republicans. Among conservative Republicans, 47% prefer Giuliani, 23% McCain, and 22% Bush. Bush's support drops dramatically -- to 8% -- among Republicans who say they are moderate or liberal, while 51% of this group prefers Giuliani and 33% McCain.

Ironically, if Hillary Clinton and Giuliani were matched up in the 2008 election, it would not be the first time the two campaigned against each other. Both were candidates for the U.S. Senate from New York in 2000. Giuliani dropped out of the race in May of that year after being diagnosed with cancer, and Clinton went on to defeat the eventual Republican candidate Rick Lazio in the general election.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,016 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 7-10, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For results based on the sample of 465 Democrats and Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 505 Republicans and Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Turning to something else,

45. OPEN-ENDED QUESTION (SEE RESULTS ABOVE)

46. Suppose the choice for the Democratic presidential nomination narrows down to New York Senator Hillary Clinton or North Carolina Senator John Edwards. Which one would you prefer the Democratic Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton (or) John Edwards]?

BASED ON 465 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

 

Hillary
Clinton

John
Edwards

No
opinion

 

 

 

2004 Nov 7-10

55%

39

6

47. OPEN-END QUESTION (SEE RESULTS ABOVE)

48. Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to Florida Governor Jeb Bush, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Arizona Senator John McCain. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Jeb Bush (or) Rudy Giuliani (or) John McCain]?

BASED ON 505 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

 

Jeb
Bush

Rudy
Giuliani

John
McCain

No
opinion

 

 

 

 

2004 Nov 7-10

17%

47

27

9


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/14053/hillary-clinton-giuliani-early-favorites-2008.aspx
Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A
+1 202.715.3030