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President Bush and Roe v. Wade

Public favors restrictive view of abortion rights, but not Roe v. Wade reversal

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With President George W. Bush likely to appoint at least one new justice to the U.S. Supreme Court, possibly as early as next year, the fate of the Roe v. Wade decision establishing a constitutional right to an abortion is being debated. Clearly, religious conservatives played an important part in Bush's re-election, and now conservative political leaders are hoping to advance their policy agenda -- which could include overturning Roe v. Wade -- in Bush's second term. Gallup data show that this will be a somewhat tricky proposition for Bush: while Americans generally oppose an unrestricted right to an abortion, several polls have shown a consistent majority opposition to overturning the Roe v. Wade decision. Most conservatives and regular churchgoers are in favor of reversing Roe.

Public Opinion on Abortion

At least annually, Gallup updates its trend questions on abortion. The most recent update was in May, with 24% of Americans saying abortions should be legal under any circumstances, 55% saying they should be legal in some circumstances, and 19% saying they should be illegal in all circumstances. Those views have been relatively stable since 1996. Before that, during the early- to mid-1990s, Americans were somewhat more supportive of wide-ranging abortion rights, with about one in three favoring abortions in all circumstances. In the mid-1970s and through the 1980s, opinion was similar to what it is now.

The data show that the vast majority of Americans, about 8 in 10, favor abortion rights in at least some circumstances. However, a follow-up to the basic abortion trend question reveals that Americans who favor abortion in "some circumstances" tend to favor them in "only a few" rather than in "most" cases. Overall, 37% of Americans say abortion should be legal either "under any circumstances" (24%) or "most circumstances" (13%), while 61% say abortion should be legal in "only a few circumstances" (42%) or should be "illegal in all circumstances" (19%).

Each time Gallup has asked this follow-up question (since 1994) a majority of Americans have said abortion should be legal in only a few circumstances, or not legal at all. 

Abortion views in the United States are strongly related to one's politics and level of religious commitment. Bush's political allies -- self-identified conservatives and regular church-goers -- tend to favor limited (if any) abortion rights, while those in the middle and left of the political spectrum have more permissive views on abortion.

Specifically, 77% of conservatives believe abortion should be legal in only a few (52%) or in no (25%) circumstances. At the same time, nearly half of those who identify as liberal, 47% believe abortion should be legal in all circumstances. 

Weekly churchgoers take a more restrictive view of abortion rights than even conservatives -- 84% say it should be legal in only a few (50%) or in no (34%) circumstances. A majority of those who seldom or never attend church say abortion should be legal in all (33%) or most (19%) circumstances.

Both groups -- conservatives and regular churchgoers -- voted overwhelmingly for Bush this year -- conservatives by an 80% to 20% margin over Senator John Kerry and weekly churchgoers by a 63% to 37% margin. Given their views on abortion, most conservatives and regular churchgoers would seemingly favor judicial appointees who have a restrictive view of abortion rights, including those who might favor overturning the Roe decision. However, recent polling by Gallup and other firms shows that most Americans overall would not favor a reversal of Roe.

Public Opinion on Roe v. Wade

In January 2003, 30 years after the Supreme Court issued its Roe v. Wade decision, Gallup gauged general support for the decision by asking Americans if the "landmark decision on abortion known as Roe v. Wade" was a "good thing or bad thing" for the country. A majority, 53%, said it was a good thing, while 30% said it was a bad thing and 17% had no opinion. Looking at the results by ideology, 70% of liberals say the Roe v. Wade decision was a good thing for the country (as opposed to 11% who say it was bad). Only 38% of conservatives say it was good for the country, while 50% say it was bad. (The poll did not include a measure of church attendance).

In March 2002, Gallup asked a direct question about overturning the Roe v. Wade decision. Thirty-six percent of Americans said they would like to see the "Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe v. Wade decision," while 60% say they would not like to see it overturned. Liberals (78% to 21%) and moderates (67% to 28%) strongly opposed overturning Roe, while conservatives favored it, but by a relatively small (53% to 44%) margin.

That poll also found 60% of weekly churchgoers in favor of overturning Roe, while those who attend church less often were strongly opposed to overturning the decision (26% in favor, 70% opposed).

A poll by the Associated Press, conducted earlier this month, uncovered very similar findings to Gallup's, even though the question was asked in a different manner. Sixty-one percent of Americans in that poll say Bush should "nominate a Supreme Court justice who would uphold the Roe v. Wade decision," while 34% Bush should nominate a justice who would overturn it.

Survey Methods

Results for each poll are each based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of approximately 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

18. Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?

Legal
under any circumstances

Legal only
under certain circumstances


Illegal in all circumstances



No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2004 May 2-4

24

56

19

1

 

 

 

 

2003 Oct 24-26

26

55

17

2

2003 May 5-7

23

57

19

1

2003 Jan 10-12

24

57

18

1

2002 May 6-9

25

51

22

2

2002 Mar 22-24

27

53

19

1

2002 Feb 8-10

26

54

18

2

2001 Aug 10-12

26

56

17

1

2001 May 10-14

26

58

15

1

2001 Mar 26-28

26

51

18

5

2000 Mar 30-Apr 2

28

51

19

2

2000 Jan 13-16

26

56

15

3

1999 Apr 30-May 2

27

55

16

2

1998 Jan 16-18

23

59

17

1

1997 Nov 6-9

26

55

17

2

1997 Aug 12-13

22

61

15

2

1996 Sep 20-22

24

52

17

7

1996 Jul 25-28

25

58

15

2

1995 Sep 22-24

31

54

12

3

1995 Feb 24-26

33

50

15

2

1994 Sep 6-7

33

52

13

2

1994 Mar 28-30

31

51

15

3

1993 Mar 12-14

32

51

13

4

1992 Jul 23-24 ^

34

48

15

3

1992 Jun 29

34

48

13

5

1992 Jan 16-19

31

53

14

2

1991 Sep 5-8

33

49

14

4

1991 May 30-Jun 2

32

50

17

1

1990 Apr 5-20

31

53

12

4

1989 Jul 6-9

29

51

17

3

1989 Jul 6-7 ^

29

51

17

3

1989 Apr 12-13 ^

27

50

18

5

1988 Sep 25-Oct 1

24

57

17

2

1985 Jan 3-4 ^

21

55

21

3

1983 Jun 24-27

23

58

16

3

1981 May 8-11

23

52

21

4

1980 Jul 11-14

25

53

18

4

1979 Feb 23-26

22

54

19

5

1977 Dec 9-12

22

55

19

4

1975 Apr 4-7

21

54

22

3

 ^Gallup/Newsweek

 

 

 

 

19. (If certain circumstances) Do you think abortion should be legal in most circumstances or only in a few circumstances?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.18-19)

Legal
under any

Legal
under most

Legal only
 in a few

Illegal
in all

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

2004 May 2-4

24

13

42

19

2

 

 

 

 

 

2003 Oct 24-26

26

14

40

17

3

2003 May 5-7

23

15

42

19

1

2003 Jan 10-12

24

14

42

18

2

2002 May 6-9

25

12

39

22

2

2002 Mar 22-24

27

12

40

19

2

2001 Aug 10-12

26

12

43

17

2

2001 May 10-14

26

15

41

15

3

2001 Mar 26-28

26

13

38

18

5

2000 Mar 30-Apr 2

28

11

38

19

4

2000 Jan 13-16

26

17

39

15

3

1999 Apr 30-May 2

27

12

42

16

3

1998 Jan 16-18

23

16

42

17

2

1997 Nov 6-9

26

15

40

17

2

1997 Aug 12-13

22

12

48

15

3

1996 Jul 25-28

25

13

43

15

4

1995 Sep 22-24

31

14

39

12

4

1995 Feb 24-26

32

9

41

15

3

1994 Sep 6-7

33

13

38

13

3

34. As you may know, in 1973, the U.S. Supreme Court announced a landmark decision on abortion known as Roe versus Wade. Do you think that decision was a -- [ROTATED: good thing (or a) bad thing] -- for the country?

Good thing for
country

Bad thing for
country

No opinion

 

 

 

2003 Jan 10-12

53%

30

17

21. The 1973 Roe versus Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court COMPLETELY OVERTURN its Roe versus Wade decision, or not?

Overturn

Not overturn

No opinion

%

%

%

2002 Mar 22-24

36

60

4

 

 

 

1992 Aug 13-14

34

60

6

1989 Oct 5-8

33

61

6

1989 Jul 6-7

31

58

11


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