Majority Confident Bush Will Make Good Decisions on Cabinet Replacements

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Last week, two members of President George W. Bush's Cabinet resigned -- Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge and Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson. This marks eight departures from Bush's Cabinet since Election Day, with the possibility of more to come before Bush's second term begins in January.

A majority of Americans, according to a recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, are at least somewhat confident in Bush to make good choices to replace the Cabinet members who are leaving the administration before his second term in office. Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to express confidence.

At least half of all Americans have favorable opinions of four current administration officials -- Attorney General John Ashcroft, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, and Secretary of State Colin Powell. Following last month's presidential election, Gallup shows increases in the favorable ratings of Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Ashcroft, as well as modest increases in the ratings of Powell and his successor, Rice.

Will Bush Make Good Choices?

The Nov. 19-21 poll finds that more than 6 in 10 Americans say they are at least somewhat confident that Bush "will make good choices to replace the Cabinet members who leave his administration," including 34% who say they are very confident. Thirty-six percent of adults nationwide are not too (15%) or not at all (21%) confident. 

Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to express confidence in Bush's choices. Two in three Republicans (67%) say they are very confident, compared with only 6% of Democrats. 

Bush, Cheney Post-Election Ratings Up

Bush's and Cheney's favorable ratings got a boost following Bush's victory in the 2004 presidential election. Just prior to the election, 51% of Americans said they had favorable opinions of Bush, tied for the lowest rating Gallup had ever measured for Bush. After the election, Bush's favorable rating jumped to 60%. The percentage of Americans rating Cheney favorably grew seven percentage points over this time period, from 46% to 53%.

Positive Ratings for Powell, Rice, Rumsfeld, Ashcroft 

The poll was conducted after the resignations of Ashcroft and Powell, and after Rice was nominated to fill Powell's vacancy. Overall, Powell and Rice are rated more favorably than Ashcroft or Rumsfeld. Ashcroft's favorable rating has increased significantly, while those for Powell and Rice show slight increases. Rumsfeld's rating shows essentially no change.

Secretary of State Colin Powell

The poll finds 87% of Americans with favorable opinions of Powell, and only 9% with unfavorable opinions. Powell's favorable ratings have historically been among the highest that Gallup has recorded. In fact, the only person Gallup has measured in recent years using this favorable/unfavorable format who had a higher favorable rating was Tiger Woods, at 88% in a June 2000 poll. The current rating for Powell shows a slight improvement since June 2003, when 83% rated him favorably.  

Unusual for a political figure, Powell fares well among both Republicans and Democrats, with 96% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats rating him favorably.

National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice

Sixty-three percent of Americans have favorable opinions of Rice, up from 59% in April and 50% in March.

Republicans (86%) are much more likely than independents (57%) or Democrats (41%) to have favorable opinions of Rice, suggesting that Rice is perceived from a much more political perspective than is her soon-to-be predecessor, Powell.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld

Fifty-one percent of Americans say they have favorable opinions of Rumsfeld. These results show little change since September 2003, when Rumsfeld's rating was at 53%. His ratings were higher in 2002 and early 2003, ranging from 58% to 67%.           

Over the past year, Rumsfeld's ratings have remained essentially unchanged among Republicans (going from 81% in September 2003 to 79% in November 2004), but have decreased slightly among Democrats (from 31% to 25%) and independents (from 51% to 42%).

Attorney General John Ashcroft

Half of Americans (50%) have favorable opinions of Ashcroft, up eight percentage points from a February 2004 survey. Ashcroft's ratings have fluctuated greatly since the beginning of 2003, ranging from 42% to 58%.

The increase in Ashcroft's ratings comes primarily from Republicans. Currently, 78% of Republicans have favorable opinions of Ashcroft, up from 67% in February. Opinion of Ashcroft has changed little among Democrats (going from 21% in February 2004 to 25% in November 2004) and independents (from 38% to 39%).

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,015 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 19-21, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.