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Public: Early Troop Withdrawals Unlikely

Public: Early Troop Withdrawals Unlikely

Slight majority of Americans say war was a mistake

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With elections in Iraq less than two weeks away, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey shows that most Americans expect the elections to take place as planned, but they are not optimistic that the results will lead to early U.S. troop withdrawals from that war-torn country. The poll also shows that Americans are divided over the broader issue of whether U.S. troops should remain in Iraq and whether it was a mistake to send them there in the first place.

The poll, conducted Jan. 14-16, finds that 62% of Americans expect the elections in Iraq will occur as scheduled, up from 51% who felt that way two months ago.

Recently, Secretary of State Colin Powell suggested some U.S. troops might begin withdrawing from Iraq this year, though President George W. Bush declined to confirm Powell's assertion. Instead, Bush said troops would be withdrawn as soon as possible, but that "They won't be leaving until we have completed our mission." The poll shows that only 15% of Americans believe the elections will lead to the withdrawal of U.S. troops within the next few months, while another 43% say it can happen within the next few years. Thirty-eight percent don't see a withdrawal within the foreseeable future.

These views are highly related to party affiliation.

  • Eighty percent of Republicans expect troops to be withdrawn within either a few months (18%) or a few years (62%).
  • By contrast, only 51% of independents and 44% of Democrats expect troop withdrawals within that time frame.
  • Also, just 17% of Republicans say the United States will be forced to leave its troops in Iraq for the foreseeable future, compared with 45% of independents and 52% of Democrats who feel that way.

Public Divided on U.S. Troops in Iraq

Currently, 52% of Americans say the original decision to go to war in Iraq was a mistake, while 47% disagree. Last year in late June through July, there was also a majority who felt the war was a mistake, but during the final months of the election campaign, support for the war improved. From August through the election, a slight majority said the war was not a mistake. Since the election, opinion has gradually become more negative.

Again, opinions are highly related to party affiliation. Republicans overwhelmingly reject the notion that the war was a mistake, 83% to 16%. Large majorities of independents and Democrats, by contrast, say the war was a mistake -- 62% to 36% among independents, and 78% to 22% among Democrats.

Apart from whether the original decision was a mistake, half of Americans say the United States should either send more troops (24%) or keep the same number of troops as are there now (26%), while 46% want to withdraw either some or all troops.

For the past year, opinion on this issue has tended toward keeping troops in Iraq or sending more. Last May and June, opinion was almost evenly divided, but the poll in September, in the midst of the presidential campaign, showed a 17-point margin in favor of keeping troops in Iraq or sending more.

As with the other issues related to Iraq, Republicans are much more likely than either independents or Democrats to support keeping the troops in Iraq. By a 3-to-1 margin Republicans want to keep U.S. military forces there or send more, while Democrats want to withdraw some or all troops, by a 2-to-1 margin. Independents are about evenly divided.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,007 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 14-16, 2005. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

24. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?


Yes


No

No
opinion

%

%

%

Iraq

 

 

 

2005 Jan 14-17

52

47

1

2005 Jan 7-9

50

48

2

2004 Nov 19-21

47

51

2

2004 Oct 29-31 ^

44

52

4

2004 Oct 22-24

47

51

2

2004 Oct 14-16

47

52

1

2004 Oct 9-10 ^

46

53

1

2004 Oct 1-3

48

51

1

2004 Sep 24-26

42

55

3

2004 Sep 3-5 ^

38

57

5

2004 Aug 23-25 ^

48

50

2

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

47

51

2

2004 Jul 19-21

50

47

3

2004 Jul 8-11 ^

54

45

1

2004 Jun 21-23 ^

54

44

2

2004 Jun 3-6 ^

41

58

1

2004 May 7-9 ^

44

54

2

2004 Apr 16-18 ^

42

57

1

2004 Jan 12-15 ^

42

56

2

2003 Nov 3-5 ^

39

60

1

2003 Oct 6-8 ^

40

59

1

2003 Jul 7-9 ^

27

72

1

2003 Mar 24-25 ^

23

75

2

Afghanistan

 

 

 

2004 Jul 19-21

25

72

3

2002 Jan 7-9

6

93

1

2001 Nov 8-11

9

89

2

Yugoslavia

 

 

 

1999 Jun 4-5

43

53

4

1999 Apr 21

42

51

7

Persian Gulf War

 

 

 

1991 Jul 18-21

15

82

3

1991 Feb 28-Mar 3

10

87

3

1991 Feb 7-10

21

76

3

1991 Jan 30-Feb 2

18

80

2

1991 Jan 23-26

18

77

5

1991 Jan 17-20

16

80

4

1991 Jan 11-13

29

65

6

1991 Jan 3-6

30

61

9

1990 Dec 6-9

28

66

6

1990 Nov 29-Dec 2

29

66

5

1990 Nov 15-18

27

65

8

1990 Nov 8-11

27

68

5

1990 Nov 2-4

25

67

6

1990 Aug 30-Sep 2

16

76

8

1990 Aug 23-26

18

76

8

1990 Aug 16-19

17

75

6

1990 Aug 30-Sep 2

16

76

8

1990 Aug 23-26

18

76

5

1990 Aug 16-19

17

75

7

1990 Oct 25-28

24

71

5

1990 Oct 18-21

26

67

8

1990 Oct 11-14

27

68

7

1990 Oct 3-4

21

71

10

1990 Sep 27-30

20

73

5

1990 Sep 14-16

18

73

6

1990 Sep 10-11

19

76

8

Vietnam War

 

 

 

2000 Nov 13-15

69

24

7

1995 Apr 21-24

71

23

6

1990 Mar 15-18

74

22

4

1973 Jan 12-15

60

29

11

1971 May 14-17

61

28

11

1971 Jan 8-11

60

31

9

1970 May 21-26

56

36

8

1970 Apr 2-7

51

34

15

1970 Jan 15-20

57

32

11

1969 Sep 17-22

58

32

10

1969 Jan 23-28

52

39

9

1968 Sep 26-Oct 1

54

37

9

1968 Aug 7-12

53

35

12

1968 Apr 4-9

48

40

12

1968 Feb 22-27

49

42

9

1968 Feb 1-6

46

42

12

1967 Dec 7-12

45

46

9

1967 Oct 6-11

47

44

9

1967 Jul 13-18

41

48

11

1967 Apr 19-24

37

50

13

1967 Jan 26-31

32

52

16

1966 Nov 10-15

31

52

17

1966 Sep 8-13

35

48

17

1966 May 5-10

36

49

15

1966 Mar 3-8

26

59

15

1965 Aug 27-Sep 1

24

60

16

Korean War

 

 

 

2000 Jun 6-7

34

47

19

1953 Jan 11-16

36

50

14

1952 Oct 17-22

43

37

19

1952 Oct 9-14

43

37

20

1952 Feb 28-Mar 5

51

35

14

1951 Aug 3-8

42

48

11

1951 Jun 16-21

43

40

17

1951 Apr 16-21

37

45

18

1951 Mar 26-31

45

43

12

1951 Feb 4-9

49

41

9

1951 Jan 1-5

49

38

13

1950 Aug 20-25

20

65

15

AFGHANISTAN WORDING: Do you think the United States made a mistake in sending military forces to Afghanistan, or not?

YUGOSLAVIA WORDING: In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Yugoslavia, do you think the United States made a mistake sending military forces to fight in Yugoslavia?

PERSIAN GULF WAR WORDING (Feb. 28-Mar 3, 1991-Jul. 18-21, 1991):  In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to the Persian Gulf region, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to the Persian Gulf region, or not?

PERSIAN GULF WAR WORDING (Aug. 16-19, 1990-Feb. 7-10, 1990): In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Saudi Arabia, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Saudi Arabia, or not?

VIETNAM WAR WORDING (1990-2000): Looking back, do you think the United States made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?

VIETNAM WAR WORDING (1965-1973): In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Vietnam, do you think the U.S. made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?

KOREAN WAR WORDING (2000): Based on what you have heard or read, do you think the United States made a mistake in going into the war in Korea, or not?

KOREAN WAR WORDING (Feb. 1951-Jan. 1953): Do you think the United States made a mistake in going into the war in Korea, or not?

KOREAN WAR WORDING (Aug. 1950-Jan. 1951): In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Korea, do you think the United States made a mistake in deciding to defend Korea, or not?

25. Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should now do about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq -- [ROTATED: the U.S. should send more troops to Iraq, the U.S. should keep the number of troops as it is now, the U.S. should withdraw some troops from Iraq, (or) the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq]?

Send more
troops

Keep as
now

Withdraw
some troops

Withdraw
all troops

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

2005 Jan 14-16

24

26

21

25

4

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Sep 24-26

21

35

21

18

5

2004 Jun 3-6

18

30

23

27

2

2004 May 7-9

25

24

18

29

4

2004 Apr 16-18

33

25

16

21

5

2004 Apr 5-8

20

29

18

28

5

2004 Jan 2-5

11

40

29

16

4

2003 Dec 15-16

14

40

27

15

4

2003 Dec 5-7

22

33

25

17

3

2003 Nov 3-5 ^

17

32

29

19

3

2003 Oct 24-26 ^

14

27

39

18

2

2003 Aug 25-26 ^

15

36

32

14

3

^ WORDING: Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should now do about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq -- [ROTATED: the U.S. should send more troops to Iraq, the U.S. should keep the number of troops as it is now, the U.S. should begin to withdraw some troops from Iraq, (or) the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq]?

26. Just your best guess, do you think elections in Iraq will -- or will not -- be held at the end of January as scheduled?

Yes, will

No, will not

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 14-16

62

33

5

 

 

 

2004 Nov 19-21 ^

51

42

7

^ WORDING: Just your best guess, do you think elections in Iraq will -- or will not -- be held on January 31, 2005 as scheduled? (After the poll was put into the field, the scheduled date was moved to January 30, 2005).

27. Suppose the elections in Iraq are held as scheduled at the end of January. Do you think these elections will allow the U.S. to significantly reduce the number of troops it has in Iraq -- in the next few months, in the next few years, or will they not allow the U.S. to significantly reduce the number of troops it has in Iraq for the foreseeable future?


Next few
months


Next
few years

Not for the
foreseeable
future


No
opinion

2005 Jan 14-16

15%

43

38

4


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/14629/Public-Early-Troop-Withdrawals-Unlikely.aspx
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