As countries march toward modernization, the growth in ownership
of various "labor-saving" consumer goods becomes a key signal of
societal development. Such goods include the major durables that
manufacturers commonly refer to as "white goods" (refrigerators,
washers, and dryers) as well as certain other household appliances
that appear to define a modern lifestyle (vacuum cleaners, for
example).
These fairly standard modernization trends can certainly be seen
in China over the last decade of Gallup's polling in that country.
Yet, in examining the changes that have taken place, it's apparent
that some products are rapidly sprinting while others are merely
strolling along. The "sprinters" are products that appear to
promise more than just an easing of effort -- those in the more
"cutting-edge," higher-technology categories. These products
represent -- and perhaps symbolize -- the new millennium, replete
with the promise and prospect of tomorrow's technology.
While China's formidable capabilities in technology production
are well-recognized, it's now equally clear the Chinese have an
as-yet-unslaked thirst for the technology their country is
producing. The world/export markets and China's biggest cities
(Beijing, Shanghai) are not the only entities with an apparent need
and desire for the advanced consumer electronics China is aiming to
produce. The entire nation is embracing what amounts to a great
leap forward into technology.
Modern Technology Is on the Rise in China
Consider the increase in the percentage of households owning
refrigerators, which crept up from 39% in 1999 to 41% in 2004.
Growth in clothes washer ownership is also up slightly from 51% in
1999 to 54% in 2004, and vacuum cleaners are now in 8% of homes
versus 5% in 1999.
But contrast that slow-and-steady growth with the apparent jump
in DVD/VCD (video compact disc) ownership, which rocketed from 26%
to 52% in the same span. Ownership of stereo systems and home
theaters more than doubled in prevalence from 12% to 26%, and
microwave oven ownership grew from 6% to 18%. And, since 1999,
computer ownership has more than tripled from 4% to 13%. Computers
are now found in more Chinese homes than are vacuum
cleaners.
As reported earlier, access to (and use of) the Internet has
virtually exploded to the point which China is on its way to
becoming the world's largest Internet community (see "Internet Use:
Behind "The Great Firewall of China" in Related Items). These
explosions are being felt not just in the world of computers, but
wherever new technologies promise large advantages -- in image as
well as performance -- over more traditional technologies.
For example, there has been no growth in ownership of still/film
cameras in the past five years; ownership has remained at 24%.
Instead, ownership of video cameras has grown slightly from 3% to
5%, and 4% of the population now owns digital cameras. These
products have emerged, admittedly from a low starting base, and now
appear poised for real growth. About 1 in 10 Chinese consumers say
they plan to buy a video camera (10%) or digital camera (9%) in the
next two years, while 7% of Chinese intend to purchase a still/film
camera (an apparent decline from the 14% who were planning to buy
still cameras back in 1999). In China, it appears the digital world
may be bypassing the analog world.
There is a seemingly similar trend in the area of
telecommunications, where penetration of in-home, fixed-line
telephones grew from 39% in 1999 to 63% in 2004. But an even more
impressive growth rate is evident for mobile phone ownership, which
has leaped from only 10% in 1999 to 48% in 2004. Almost half of
Chinese now own mobile phones. And more consumers now plan to buy a
mobile phone (24%) than report planning to buy a fixed-line phone
(21%).
The promise of tomorrow's technology isn't merely a promise. In
China, it's an apparent reality, and a clearly desirable one at
that. China may well value its traditions, but its march into the
new millennium is anything but traditional. The real signs of
modernization in today's China are less likely to be clothes
washers and vacuum cleaners, and far more likely to be mobile
phones and computers.
