More Americans Seeing Vulnerability in U.S. Defense

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In mid-May, the Pentagon announced a proposal for downsizing military bases, including shutting down 33 large bases within the United States. President George W. Bush supports the measure to close these military bases in an effort to make the military more efficient in fighting the war on terrorism. By September, the Base Realignment and Closure Commission will submit to Bush a list of bases that would be closed, for his approval or disapproval. If the president approves, Congress would have to pass a joint resolution to keep the base closures from happening. Although it is not a cost-cutting measure per se, this reallocation of resources does raise the issue of defense spending, more generally.

Gallup's February World Affairs survey found a plurality of Americans believing the federal government was spending the right amount on the military and defense. The rest of the public was evenly divided as to whether the government is spending too little or too much on national defense. Nearly half of Americans said the country's national defense is as strong as it should be, while 4 in 10 said it is not strong enough and 1 in 10 said it is stronger than it needs to be. Since last year, both the percentage of Americans saying the government is spending too little on the military and the percentage saying the military is not strong enough have increased. (It is important to note that this poll was conducted before the announcement of military base closings.)

Military Spending

The latest update, conducted Feb. 7-10, found Americans evenly split as to whether the government is spending "too little" (30%) or "too much" (30%) on national defense. A plurality, 38%, says the government is spending "about the right amount." While the percentage of Americans saying the government is spending too much shows little change since last year, the percentage saying "too little" increased by eight points and the percentage saying "about the right amount" decreased by seven points.

Since Gallup first asked this question in 1969, the results have fluctuated significantly. Throughout the late 1960s and 1970s, a majority or a plurality of Americans said the government was spending too much on the military, although this percentage showed a gradual decline over this time period. There was a brief shift in opinion following Ronald Reagan's inauguration in 1980, when about half of Americans said the government was spending too little on defense. In the remaining years of Reagan's administration, though, Americans were most likely to say the government was spending too much on defense. This sentiment reached a high of 47% in 1986.

By 1998, opinions had shifted once again, with a plurality of Americans saying the government was spending the right amount on the military. That poll found the rest of the public divided as to whether the government was spending too much (22%) or too little (26%) on defense.

Then, in 2000, as the presidential race between Democratic candidate Al Gore and Republican candidate George W. Bush headed into the heat of the fall campaign season, 40% of Americans said the government was spending too little on defense, while 34% said the right amount and 20% said too much. This sentiment persisted through the initial days of Bush's presidency in 2001. But since the Sept. 11 attacks, Gallup has found that a plurality of Americans feel the government is spending the right amount on defense.

Over the past several years, Gallup has found substantial partisan differences about government spending on the military. Among Republicans in the most recent poll, just 9% say the government is spending too much, while 39% say too little. A slim majority of Republicans, 51%, say the government is spending the right amount for military and defense purposes. Among Democrats, 41% say the government is spending too much, 25% say too little, and 33% say the right amount.

Military Strength

The Feb. 7-10 poll found that nearly half of Americans, 49%, said that in terms of its strength, the country's national defense is "about right" at the present time. Forty percent said it is not strong enough, up six points from last year. Nine percent felt it is stronger than necessary.

Since this question was first asked in 1984, few Americans have ever told Gallup that the country's defense is stronger than necessary, but there have been significant variations in the percentages of Americans saying it is not strong enough or about right.

Before the start of the current Bush administration, Americans consistently said the strength of the country's defense was about right, with percentages ranging from 46% to 64%. The percentages of Americans who said the country's defense was not strong enough ranged from 17% to 42% during this same period.

When Bush first took office in 2001, Americans were almost evenly divided as to whether the national defense was about right (48%) or not strong enough (44%). Over the next three years, after the Sept. 11 attacks and then the war in Iraq, increasing numbers of Americans said the country's defense was about right. Last year, a majority of Americans, 54%, said the national defense was about right, while only a third (34%) said it was not strong enough.

Republicans and Democrats differ slightly in their views about the strength of the country's military. Five percent of Republicans say the military is stronger than it needs to be, while 40% say it is not strong enough, and a majority (55%) says it is about right. Among Democrats, 11% say it is stronger than necessary, 41% say it is not strong enough, and 45% say about right.

Another question, from Gallup's January Mood of the Nation poll, asked Americans how satisfied they were with the "nation's military strength and preparedness." The results showed that two in three Americans said they were "very" (28%) or "somewhat" satisfied (38%). This sentiment is down considerably this year -- roughly 8 in 10 Americans said they were satisfied with the strength and preparedness of the military in polls conducted from 2002 through 2004.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,008 adults, aged 18 older, conducted Feb. 7-10, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

There is much discussion as to the amount of money the government in Washington should spend for national defense and military purposes. How do you feel about this? Do you think we are spending too little, about the right amount, or too much?

Do you, yourself, feel that our national defense is stronger now than it needs to be, not strong enough, or about right at the present time?