Public Supports Roberts Serving on U.S. Supreme Court

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds that nearly 6 in 10 Americans say they would like the Senate to confirm U.S. Circuit Judge John Roberts Jr. to the U.S. Supreme Court. However, Americans are not convinced that the confirmation hearings will go smoothly. A slim majority expects a major fight between Republicans and Democrats. When it comes to the abortion issue, a majority of Americans say the Senate should insist that Roberts explain his views, but the public also feels that a nominee's position about whether to keep or overturn the Roe v. Wade decision should not be the lone factor that would disqualify the person from serving on the court.

Support for Roberts' Confirmation

Americans would like the Senate to confirm Roberts, according to the July 22-24 poll conducted just days after President George W. Bush nominated him to the U.S. Supreme Court. The poll finds that 59% of Americans say they would like to see the Senate vote in favor of Roberts serving on the Supreme Court, while 22% would not. Nearly one in five do not have an opinion.

Perhaps not surprisingly, support for Roberts is related to party affiliation. More than 8 in 10 Republicans say the Senate should vote in favor of Roberts, while 5% do not support his confirmation and 13% have no opinion. Among Democrats, just 42% support Roberts' confirmation, while 35% do not and 23% have no opinion.

Also, the poll finds essentially no difference in support between Catholics and Protestants, even though Roberts is Catholic. More than 6 in 10 Protestants (65%) and Catholics (62%) say the Senate should confirm Roberts. Among those who are not Christian, only 28% support this. (Forty-four percent of non-Christians oppose his confirmation, and 28% have no opinion.)

Initial support for Roberts' confirmation is similar to what Gallup has found for two other Supreme Court nominees over the past 14 years. A few weeks after President George H.W. Bush nominated Clarence Thomas in July 1991 but before the Anita Hill allegations came to light, a slight majority of Americans, 52% supported Thomas serving on the court. And, in mid-June 1993, days after her nomination, Gallup also found a slim majority of Americans, 53%, supporting confirmation for President Bill Clinton's nominee, Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Gallup also asked about another, much more controversial Supreme Court nominee in 1987. After Ronald Reagan nominated Robert Bork to serve on the court, an August/September 1987 poll found fewer than 4 in 10 Americans supporting his confirmation.

Big Political Fight on the Horizon?

While Americans support Roberts serving on the court, they are more divided about how the Senate confirmation hearings will go. A slim majority of respondents, 51%, predict there will be a major fight between Republicans and Democrats that will drag on for a long time, while 42% say it will be a relatively easy process in which both parties come to an agreement.

Forty-Six Percent of Americans View Roberts Favorably

Slightly less than half of Americans, 46%, say they have a favorable opinion of Roberts, while only 13% have an unfavorable opinion. A substantial number of Americans, 41%, do not know enough about the nominee at this point to rate him.

Again, the poll finds Republicans much more likely than Democrats to view Bush's nominee favorably; Democrats are much more likely to withhold judgment at this point. Seventy percent of Republicans view Roberts favorably, while nearly half of Democrats (49%) say they do not know enough about Roberts to have an opinion. Democrats who give an opinion of Roberts are equally divided between positive and negative evaluations.

The Abortion Issue

How important will Roberts' stance on abortion be in the confirmation process? That answer is unknown at this point, but the poll provides some clues.

Americans' positions on abortion seem to have relatively little influence on shaping support for Roberts. A majority of those who say they are pro-life (69%) as well as pro-choice (52%) on the abortion issue support Roberts' confirmation, although those who are pro-life are more likely to do so.

The American public says the Senate should insist that Roberts explain his views on abortion. Six in 10 Americans (61%) say the senators should insist that Roberts explain his views prior to confirming him to the court, while 37% say he should be allowed to refuse to answer questions on the subject.

This sentiment is somewhat stronger now than it was when Thomas was nominated in July 1991. At that time, 54% said Thomas should have to explain his views on abortion, while 39% said he should be allowed to refuse to answer.

The survey also asked Americans if a nominee's position on the Roe v. Wade decision should disqualify the nominee from serving.

Half of the respondents in the survey were asked:

If a nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court favors keeping the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion, in your view, should that alone disqualify that person from serving on the Supreme Court, or not?

And the other half of the respondents were asked this question:

If a nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court favors overturning the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion, in your view, should that alone disqualify that person from serving on the Supreme Court, or not?

The results to both questions suggest that the vast majority of Americans do not think a nominee's views about the Roe v. Wade decision should be the sole factor to disqualify that candidate. Only 13% say a nominee should be disqualified if that person favors keeping the Roe v. Wade decision. A higher percentage, but still far from a majority (25%), says a nominee should be disqualified if the person wants to overturn the decision.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 22-24, 2005. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the 497 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 509 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.