(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Democratic primary for president. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008, or if you would support someone else.
[ROTATED: New York Senator, Hillary Clinton; Former Alaska Senator, Mike Gravel; Illinois Senator, Barack Obama]
Democratic Presidential Nomination Preference:
(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Republican primary for president. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in 2008, or if you would support someone else.
[ROTATED: Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Texas Congressman, Ron Paul; Former ambassador, Alan Keyes]
Republican Presidential Nomination Preference:
Suppose the election were being held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Barack Obama, the Democrat (or) John McCain, the Republican]?
(Asked of those who are undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Obama, the Democrat (or) McCain, the Republican]?
|
Obama
|
McCain
|
Other
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Likely voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
47
|
48
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
|
2008 Apr 18-20
|
49
|
44
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
|
2008 Mar 14-16
|
49
|
47
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
47
|
48
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
|
2008 Feb 8-10
|
50
|
46
|
*
|
2
|
1
|
|
2008 Jan 10-13
|
45
|
50
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Registered voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
45
|
47
|
1
|
5
|
2
|
|
2008 Apr 18-20
|
47
|
44
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
|
2008 Mar 14-16
|
48
|
47
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
49
|
45
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
|
2008 Feb 8-10
|
49
|
46
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
|
2008 Jan 10-13
|
44
|
50
|
*
|
2
|
3
|
|
2007 Nov 11-14
|
47
|
44
|
*
|
6
|
4
|
|
2007 Jun 11-14
|
48
|
46
|
*
|
3
|
2
|
|
2007 Feb 9-11
|
48
|
48
|
*
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
46
|
45
|
1
|
5
|
3
|
|
2008 Apr 18-20
|
48
|
42
|
2
|
5
|
3
|
|
2008 Mar 14-16
|
47
|
46
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
51
|
43
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
|
2008 Feb 8-10
|
49
|
45
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
|
2008 Jan 10-13
|
46
|
48
|
*
|
3
|
2
|
|
2007 Nov 11-14
|
47
|
42
|
*
|
7
|
5
|
|
2007 Jun 11-14
|
48
|
45
|
*
|
4
|
3
|
|
2007 Feb 9-11
|
47
|
48
|
*
|
2
|
3
|
|
* Less than 0.5%
|
|
(vol.) = Volunteered response
|
Suppose the election were being held today. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat (or) John McCain, the Republican]?
(Asked of those who are undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Clinton, the Democrat (or) McCain, the Republican]?
|
Clinton
|
McCain
|
Other
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Likely voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
46
|
49
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
|
2008 Apr 18-20
|
49
|
45
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
2008 Mar 14-16
|
51
|
46
|
*
|
1
|
1
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
46
|
50
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
2008 Feb 8-10
|
48
|
49
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
2008 Jan 10-13
|
47
|
50
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Registered voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
46
|
48
|
1
|
4
|
1
|
|
2008 Apr 18-20
|
50
|
44
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
|
2008 Mar 14-16
|
48
|
47
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
47
|
49
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
2008 Feb 8-10
|
48
|
48
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
|
2008 Jan 10-13
|
47
|
50
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
2007 Nov 11-14
|
50
|
44
|
*
|
3
|
2
|
|
2007 Jun 11-14
|
49
|
46
|
*
|
3
|
2
|
|
2007 Feb 9-11
|
50
|
47
|
*
|
1
|
1
|
|
2005 Oct 21-23
|
43
|
53
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
2005 Jul 25-28
|
45
|
50
|
--
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
48
|
45
|
1
|
4
|
2
|
|
2008 Apr 18-20
|
51
|
42
|
1
|
4
|
3
|
|
2008 Mar 14-16
|
49
|
46
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
48
|
47
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
|
2008 Feb 8-10
|
47
|
48
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
|
2008 Jan 10-13
|
48
|
48
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
2007 Nov 11-14
|
50
|
42
|
*
|
4
|
3
|
|
2007 Jun 11-14
|
50
|
45
|
*
|
3
|
2
|
|
2007 Feb 9-11
|
52
|
46
|
*
|
1
|
1
|
|
2005 Oct 21-23
|
43
|
53
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
2005 Jul 25-28
|
45
|
50
|
--
|
2
|
3
|
|
* Less than 0.5%
|
|
(vol.) = Volunteered response
|
(Asked of Democratic and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) If -- [RANDOM ORDER] -- wins the Democratic nomination for president, which would best describe your reaction -- you would vote for him/her enthusiastically in November 2008, you would vote for him/her, but mainly as a vote against the Republican, you would vote for the Republican, or you would stay home on Election Day and not vote?
A. Barack Obama
|
|
Vote for
enthus-
iastically
|
Vote for,
mainly
against
the
Repub-
lican
|
Vote for
the
Repub-
lican
|
Stay home,
not vote
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
| 2008 May 1-3 |
54
|
20
|
12
|
12
|
2
|
| 2008 Jan 30-Feb 2 |
55
|
20
|
7
|
13
|
5
|
| 2007 Oct 12-14 |
49
|
31
|
6
|
8
|
6
|
B. Hillary Clinton
|
|
Vote for
enthus-
iastically
|
Vote for,
mainly
against
the
Repub-
lican
|
Vote for
the
Repub-
lican
|
Stay home,
not vote
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
| 2008 May 1-3 |
55
|
26
|
9
|
9
|
1
|
| 2008 Jan 30-Feb 2 |
53
|
24
|
9
|
10
|
4
|
| 2007 Oct 12-14 |
64
|
22
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
(Asked of Democrats and Democratic leaners) Next, thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Hillary Clinton or more to Barack Obama. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
A. Cares about the needs of people like you
|
|
Clinton
|
Obama
|
Both
equally
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
47
|
43
|
7
|
2
|
1
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
41
|
48
|
9
|
2
|
1
|
B. Has the best chance of beating John McCain in November
|
|
Clinton
|
Obama
|
Both
equally
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
48
|
43
|
5
|
*
|
4
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24 ^
|
30
|
63
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
|
^ WORDING: Has the best chance of beating the Republican in November
|
C. Is honest and trustworthy
|
|
Clinton
|
Obama
|
Both
equally
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
34
|
48
|
10
|
6
|
2
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
37
|
50
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
D. Is a strong and decisive leader
|
|
Clinton
|
Obama
|
Both
equally
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
53
|
37
|
7
|
3
|
*
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
49
|
42
|
5
|
1
|
2
|
|
* Less than 0.5%
|
E. Shares your values
|
|
Clinton
|
Obama
|
Both
equally
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
47
|
42
|
6
|
3
|
2
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
40
|
48
|
8
|
2
|
2
|
F. Can get things done
|
|
Clinton
|
Obama
|
Both
equally
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
40
|
53
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G. Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems
|
|
Clinton
|
Obama
|
Both
equally
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
39
|
49
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
H. Has a vision for the country's future
|
|
Obama
|
Clinton
|
Both
equally
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
50
|
40
|
7
|
*
|
3
|
|
* Less than 0.5%
|
I. Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives
|
|
Obama
|
Clinton
|
Both
equally
(vol.)
|
Neither
(vol.)
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 Feb 21-24
|
47
|
43
|
7
|
2
|
1
|
(Asked of Democrats and Democratic leaners) In your view, what should happen now in the Democratic presidential nomination campaign -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race and concede the nomination to Barack Obama, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama should continue to campaign, (or) Barack Obama should drop out of the race and concede the nomination to Hillary Clinton]?
|
|
Clinton
should
drop out
|
Both should
continue to
campaign
|
Obama
should
drop out
|
No
opinion
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
23
|
60
|
15
|
2
|
(Asked of Democrats and Democratic leaners) As you may know, a large number of Democratic superdelegates have yet to decide who they will support for the Democratic presidential nomination. When do you think these uncommitted superdelegates should make their decision -- [ROTATED: after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries next week, right after all the state primaries and caucuses are completed in early June, (or) at the Democratic convention in late August]?
|
|
After
Indiana/N.C.
primaries
|
After all
primaries/
caucuses
|
At the
convention
|
No
opinion
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
24
|
45
|
26
|
5
|
(Asked of those following the Jeremiah Wright controversy very, somewhat or not too closely) Which comes closer to your view -- [ROTATED: Barack Obama's association with Jeremiah Wright is a meaningful reflection on Obama's character and judgment that should be discussed in the campaign, (or) Barack Obama's association with Jeremiah Wright should not be discussed in the campaign because it is not a meaningful reflection on Obama's character and judgment]?
|
2008 May 1-3
|
Meaningful
reflection/
Should be
discussed
|
Not meaningful/
Should not
be discussed
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Following controversy ^
|
43
|
52
|
5
|
|
National adults
|
34
|
42
|
24
|
|
|
|
^ Based on 855 following the controversy
|
Does Barack Obama's association with Reverend Jeremiah Wright make you -- [ROTATED: more likely to vote for Obama, does it not affect your vote either way, (or) does it make you less likely to vote for Obama]?
|
|
More
likely
|
Not
affect vote
|
Less likely
|
No opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Likely voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
1
|
64
|
33
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Registered voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
2
|
65
|
30
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
2
|
66
|
29
|
3
|
Does Hillary Clinton's association with Bill Clinton make you -- [ROTATED: more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton, does it not affect your vote either way, (or) does it make you less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton]?
|
|
More
likely
|
Not
affect vote
|
Less likely
|
No opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Likely voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
18
|
48
|
33
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Registered voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
18
|
52
|
29
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
19
|
52
|
28
|
1
|
Does John McCain's association with George W. Bush make you -- [ROTATED: more likely to vote for John McCain, does it not affect your vote either way, (or) does it make you less likely to vote for John McCain]?
|
|
More
likely
|
Not
affect vote
|
Less likely
|
No opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Likely voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
7
|
54
|
38
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Registered voters
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
7
|
54
|
38
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 May 1-3
|
7
|
52
|
39
|
2
|
(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Which comes closer to your view-- [ROTATED: the continuing Democratic nomination campaign is hurting the Democratic Party and party leaders should get together and back one of the candidates (or) the continuing Democratic nomination campaign is not hurting the Democratic Party and it should continue until one of the candidates has clinched the nomination]?
|
|
Hurting party/
Back one
candidate
|
Not hurting
party/
Continue
campaign
|
No
opinion
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2008 Apr 18-20
|
48
|
48
|
4
|
(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Do you think the Democratic campaign for president has become too negative, or is it not too negative?
(Asked of those who think campaign has become too negative) Who do you blame more for the negative campaigning -- [ROTATED: the Clinton campaign, the Obama campaign], or both equally?
COMBINED RESULTS: BASED ON DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
2008 Apr 18-20
|
|
%
|
|
|
|
Campaign has become too negative
|
47
|
|
(Mostly blame Clinton campaign)
|
(20)
|
|
(Mostly blame Obama campaign)
|
(1)
|
|
(Blame both equally)
|
(25)
|
|
(Unsure)
|
(1)
|
|
|
|
Campaign has not become too negative
|
49
|
|
|
|
No opinion
|
4
|
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each applies or doesn't apply to Hillary Clinton. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
Cares about the needs of people like you
Is a strong and decisive leader
Is honest and trustworthy
Shares your values
Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems
Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives
Is someone you would be proud to have as president
Can manage the government effectively
Has a vision for the country's future
Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each applies or doesn't apply to John McCain. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
Cares about the needs of people like you
Is a strong and decisive leader
Is honest and trustworthy
Shares your values
Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems
Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives
Is someone you would be proud to have as president
Can manage the government effectively
Has a vision for the country's future
Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each applies or doesn't apply to Barack Obama. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
Cares about the needs of people like you
Is a strong and decisive leader
Is honest and trustworthy
Shares your values
Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems
Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives
Is someone you would be proud to have as president
Can manage the government effectively
Has a vision for the country's future
Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington
