Nearly Half of Americans Think U.S. Will Soon Have a Woman President

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The success of the recent television show "Commander in Chief," with actress Geena Davis playing the role of the president, has intensified discussion about the likelihood of having a woman as the nation's chief executive. Speculation about a female president is already high, given the expectation that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton will likely seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds that the vast majority of Americans say they would personally vote for a qualified woman for president. Slightly less than half the public thinks that the United States will have a female president within the next 10 years, but most think there will be a female president within 25 years.

The Sept. 8-11 poll finds nearly half of Americans, 46%, think the United States will have a female president within the next 10 years, and an additional 41% say within the next 10 to 25 years. In 2001, 40% of Americans said there would be a female president within the next 10 years.

Women (51%) are more likely than men (40%) to believe that there will be a female president within the next 10 years. A majority of Democrats, 52%, think the United States will have a female president within the next 10 years, compared with 40% of Republicans.

Eighty-six percent of Americans say that they, personally, would vote for a qualified woman for president. Democrats (94%) are more likely than Republicans (76%) to say they would vote for a woman, though the vast majority of each political group is supportive.

One issue with asking people whether they would vote for a female president is that some respondents may tell the interviewer they would do so even if in reality they would not, to avoid expressing a view about women that could be considered prejudicial. At times, survey researchers will ask respondents to assess their neighbors' intentions. This allows respondents to express a seemingly gender-biased view without appearing to be biased themselves. Using this approach, support for a female president is significantly lower, but still registers as a majority -- 61% of Americans say their neighbors would vote for a qualified woman, while 34% say their neighbors would not.

The direct and indirect results taken together suggest that most Americans would vote for a female president, though the actual percentage of who would do so is unclear. Interestingly, less than half of Republicans, 47%, believe their neighbors would vote for a qualified woman for president, compared with 72% of Democrats who share this view. For both parties, the percentage who believe their neighbors would vote for a woman is more than 20 percentage points lower than the percentage who say that they, personally, would vote for a woman.

The poll also attempted to assess if Americans saw a difference in a male or female president in the dominant policy spheres -- national security and domestic policy. Americans are more inclined to say that a male president is better able to handle national security, and a female domestic policy. But a substantial proportion volunteers that the gender of the president makes no difference in either arena.

Democrats' and Republicans' views diverge in their assessment of both policy areas, with Democrats saying a female president would better handle both, while Republicans say a male president would do a better job in both.

By a 57% to 8% margin, Republicans say that a man would better handle national security than a woman. Democrats show a slight preference for a female (37%) than a male (31%) president in this arena.

The reverse is true in regards to domestic policy -- Democrats overwhelmingly believe a female (62%) president is preferable to a male (13%), while Republicans show a slight preference for a man (34%) over a woman (30%) to handle domestic policy.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 8-11, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Q.40-41 SPLIT SAMPLED

40. Would you, personally, vote for a qualified woman for president, or not?

BASED ON 533 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

41. Do you think most of your neighbors would vote for a qualified woman for president, or not?

BASED ON 472 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

42. Overall, how long do you think it will be before a woman is elected president -- within the next 10 years, within the next 25 years, within the next 100 years, sometime longer than that, or never?

43. Do you think a -- [ROTATED: man (or a) woman] -- president would better handle -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

National security

Domestic policy