Most Seniors Expect to Skip Medicare Prescription Drug Program

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey suggests that enrollment for the federal government's new Medicare prescription drug benefit program, scheduled to go into effect on Jan. 1, 2006, may fall well short of government projections.

Health and Human Services projects that some 29.3 million out of 43.1 million Medicare beneficiaries will join the program. But the poll suggests that only about one-third of the people who are expected to enroll will actually do so. The poll also suggests that few seniors (people 65 and older) understand the program, and in the past three months there has been little progress in educating them about it.

The survey of 760 seniors occurred in three stages -- July 22-24, Aug. 5-7, and Sept. 26-28, with about 250 interviewed in each group. Overall, only 12% of seniors say they understand the program "very" well, and another 24% say "somewhat" well. Sixty-one percent understand little or nothing at all about the program.

As you may know, the government is instituting an optional prescription drug benefit program for Medicare recipients. How well do you, personally, understand the prescription drug benefit program that will be offered to Medicare recipients -- very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not at all?

During the past few months the percentages have remained stable, suggesting that there has been no increase in understanding, despite the fact that the deadline for joining the program has moved much closer.

Intentions to join the program have also remained stable, with just about one in five seniors (22%) saying they will join, and the rest either saying they will not join (61%) or that they do not know if they will (17%).

Do you plan to join the new prescription drug benefit program for Medicare recipients, or not?

That 22% enrollment expectation contrasts with the much more optimistic projection by Health and Human Services of 68% of eligible Medicare recipients. It is possible that the 17% of poll respondents claiming no opinion will eventually enroll, but that would still make the total far short of the government's projection. Clearly, the government has a major challenge of persuasion if it is to meet its enrollment expectations.

As an incentive to join the program, there are severe penalties for most eligible recipients who do not enroll within the enrollment period. But so far this fact either is not well known, or it is not affecting intentions. The poll shows that seniors who say they understand the program "very" or "somewhat" well are about as likely to join as people who understand the program less well.

Do you plan to join the new prescription drug benefit program for Medicare recipients, or not?

Among seniors who do not understand the program well, there is more uncertainty than among those who say they understand the program very or somewhat well, with about one in five of the less informed groups expressing no opinion. But the percentage saying they will join varies little among the four groups.

There are few differences in the intentions between men and women, but the poll shows that higher income respondents are somewhat less likely to say they will join the program than lower income respondents.

Thirty-one percent of seniors in households with less than $20,000 in annual income expect to enroll, compared with just 18% of seniors in households with annual incomes of $50,000 or more. About one in five of the middle income groups expect to enroll.

Do you plan to join the new prescription drug benefit program for Medicare recipients, or not?

It is worthwhile noting that half of even the lowest income seniors say they will not join, suggesting that Americans do not necessarily see the program as the economic benefit it was intended to be. Perhaps with additional information, more seniors will become persuaded of the program's benefits. But at this stage, enrollment in the Medicare program is likely to be far short of what the government expects.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 760 adults, aged 65 and older, conducted July 22-24, 2005, Aug. 5-7, 2005, and Sept. 26-28, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.