Alito's Experience a Plus With Public

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the nomination of Judge Samuel Alito to replace Sandra Day O'Connor on the Supreme Court, President George W. Bush has found a candidate who apparently pleases most prominent conservatives. A description of Alito's record suggests that the American public will find the candidate generally acceptable on some qualifications, although the issue of abortion could be a source of contention.

The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted Oct. 28-30, finds that 50% of Americans say it is essential that the nominee has experience as a judge, and another 36% say such experience is a "good idea," even if not essential. On this mark, Alito clearly qualifies. He has been a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit since 1990.

Next, as you may know, President Bush will soon announce another nominee to the Supreme Court to fill the seat of retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.

10. Which of the following best describes your view about whether the next Supreme Court justice is [RANDOM ORDER] -- do you think it is -- [RANDOM ORDER: essential that the next justice is (a woman/someone who has experience judge/a conservative/someone who would vote to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision), is it a good idea, but not essential, does it not matter to you, (or do you think it is) a bad idea]?

Someone who has experience as a judge

Alito would replace O'Connor, the first woman ever appointed to the Supreme Court. However, Americans appear divided on the importance of replacing her with another woman. Fourteen percent say it is essential that the nominee be a woman, while 33% say it is a good idea to nominate a woman, but not essential. And 50% of Americans say it doesn't matter to them.

A woman

A key factor to Bush's most vocal supporters is that the nominee be conservative, and there is little doubt that Alito is regarded that way. Only 21% of Americans say that it is essential that the nominee be conservative, however, while 24% say it is a good idea but not essential. Twenty percent say that nominating a conservative is a bad idea, while 32% say it doesn't matter.

A conservative

One of the key issues dividing Republicans and Democrats is a potential nominee's position on abortion. Many prominent Christian conservatives have expressed a desire to reverse Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court ruling that says a woman has a constitutional right to an abortion at least within the first three months of conception. And Americans have consistently indicated that they do not want to see Roe reversed.

In the current poll, only 16% of Americans say it is essential that a nominee be a person who would overturn Roe, and another 16% think it would be a good idea, but not essential. Forty-two percent say it would be a bad idea to have a justice who would overturn Roe, and 20% say it doesn't matter.

Someone who would vote to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion

The results show that even Republicans are not especially intense on this issue, with 19% saying it's essential, compared with 17% of Democrats. But Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to say it is a bad idea -- 52% vs. 31%, respectively.

Conservatives are more likely than moderates or liberals to say it is essential to have a justice overturn Roe v. Wade, 26% vs. 12% and 11%, respectively. Still, 47% of conservatives say it either doesn't matter (21%) or it's a bad idea (26%). Sixty-five percent of liberals say it is a bad idea.

The last time Gallup asked the public's views of overturning Roe v. Wade was in July. The public opposed reversing the decision by greater than a two-to-one margin.

The 1973 Roe versus Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court COMPLETELY OVERTURN its Roe versus Wade decision, or not?

Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its 1973 Roe versus Wade decision concerning abortion, or not?

ASKED OF A HALF SAMPLE

The purpose of asking two different versions was to see if the wording made a difference in the responses. The results show that with either wording, there is little support for overturning Roe v. Wade.

While it is difficult to predict how a judge will rule on a case, Alito's record suggests the nominee is at least more strongly anti-abortion than the justice he would replace. In 1991, he was the lone dissenter in a 3rd Circuit court decision that struck down a law requiring wives to tell their husbands before having an abortion. The Supreme Court upheld the 3rd Circuit court's decision by a 6-3 vote, including that of Justice O'Connor.

Despite its support for Roe v. Wade, the public itself is ambivalent about abortion. While a majority supports a woman's right to an abortion in the first three months, the public has also indicated majority support for requiring parental notification before a minor can have an abortion, and for prohibiting late-term abortions except if a woman's health is at risk.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 28-30, 2005. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.