State of the Union Addresses Typically Do Not Boost Presidential Popularity

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- An annual rite of the winter months is a nationally televised and constitutionally prescribed address from the president of the United States to Congress about the state of the union. Political pundits take to the airwaves in the days surrounding the event to discuss whether the president can or did enhance his public standing with the speech. Historical Gallup findings dating back to President Jimmy Carter's administration indicate that presidents rarely are able to increase their popularity following a State of the Union address. George W. Bush may have done so temporarily with his speech last year, but his public standing was largely unchanged following his three prior State of the Union addresses.

The following table shows the pre-State of the Union approval ratings for each president in the Gallup Poll prior to each address, and his approval ratings in the first poll conducted after the address (this does not include addresses given by presidents in their first year in office; though many typically give such speeches, it is usually not under the rubric of a State of the Union address).

In the 24 cases shown here, there are 10 instances in which a president's post-State of the Union approval rating was higher than his rating before the speech, 12 when it was lower, and 2 when there was no change. For the most part, those changes are small enough to fall within the poll's margin of sampling error. In only four cases did a president's post-State of the Union approval rating exceed his pre-speech rating by four or more percentage points, which would suggest a change beyond what would be expected due to sampling error.

The Bush Record

One of those cases where a president's approval rating increased significantly occurred in 2005. Bush's pre-State of the Union approval rating, measured Jan. 14-16, 2005, was 51%. Following the speech, a Feb. 4-6 poll showed his approval rating at 57%.

It is unclear if that six-percentage-point increase was due largely to the speech or to other factors. On one hand, Bush's 2005 speech was well-received according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll taken immediately after the speech of Americans who had watched the address live. Sixty percent of those who watched the speech rated it "very positive," one of Bush's better marks (his best was a 74% "very positive" rating following his 2002 address). However, in between the Jan. 14-16 and Feb. 4-6 measurements of Bush's approval ratings, Iraqi citizens participated in the first democratic elections in Iraq following the toppling of Saddam Hussein's regime. These elections were widely regarded as being successful, and are the type of event that often causes a rally in a president's approval rating.

Regardless of the causes of the increase in Bush's approval rating in February 2005, it proved to be short-lived. Gallup's next measurement showed Bush's approval rating down to 49%, and his subsequent ratings in February were in the low 50s.

It is also hard to get a good read on the impact of Bush's 2004 State of the Union address. Bush gave his 2004 State of the Union speech on Jan. 20, the day after the Iowa caucuses and a week before the New Hampshire primary, both of which helped determine his Democratic Party challenger in that year's presidential election. Gallup's post-State of the Union reading that year came nearly two weeks after the speech, in a Jan. 29-Feb. 1 poll. That poll reflected the public's high amount of interest in the Democratic nomination contest, and consequently represented one of the lower points in Bush's support for the year (49%). So while Bush's post-State of the Union reading in 2004 was significantly lower than his pre-State of the Union measure, the drop was probably not due to the speech as much as to other events occurring at the same time.

In his first two State of the Union addresses, Bush's approval ratings barely budged. In both instances, however, his approval ratings were comparatively high to begin with (84% in 2002 and 60% in 2003), but even some dramatic pronouncements, such as terming Iraq, Iran, and North Korea as an "axis of evil," did not cause much change in Bush's job ratings.

The Carter to Clinton Records

Of the most recent presidents, Bill Clinton seemed most adept at using a State of the Union speech to help boost his public standing. His approval rating showed significant improvement after three of his seven speeches, including a dramatic increase of 10 percentage points in 1998. That speech was delivered just days after allegations about an affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky became publicized. Clinton made no mention of that controversy in the 1998 speech, but rather touted the first balanced federal budget in nearly three decades and proposed a variety of new and popular programs in the areas of education, welfare, and Social Security. The 69% approval rating Clinton received following that speech was the second highest of his term, bettered only by a 73% rating immediately after the House of Representatives voted to impeach him (as a result of the Lewinsky scandal) in December 1998.

Clinton also used his 1996 speech, in which he announced an end to the "era of big government," as a springboard to a successful re-election bid. Following that speech, his job approval rating edged past the 50% mark, where it stayed for the remainder of his presidency. Clinton also showed a slight improvement in his approval ratings following his 1994 State of the Union speech.

The elder George Bush was far less successful than Clinton in getting a boost from his State of the Union speeches. However, that probably resulted from the fact that Bush's pre-State of the Union approval ratings in 1990 (80%) and 1991 (83%) were already very high to begin with; both were among the highest Gallup has ever recorded for a president. Bush gave the 1990 address shortly after the United States invaded Panama and successfully captured Manuel Noriega. Also, several Eastern European countries withdrew from the Soviet bloc around that time. Bush gave the 1991 address during the early stages of the Persian Gulf War with Iraq.

Bush's 1992 address, though, was seen as an important opportunity for him to address Americans' concerns about a poor economy, and thus to improve his sagging popularity as he began his re-election bid. Prior to the speech, Bush's job approval rating was 46%, and presidents typically need an approval rating above 50% to ensure re-election. However, Bush's State of the Union speech did not do much to change the public's view of him, as his post-State of the Union approval rating was 47%. Bush's approval rating subsequently continued the downward trend that had begun after the Persian Gulf War -- falling below 40% by June 1992 -- and staying in the 30s until after Clinton defeated him.

Like the elder Bush, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan also saw little improvement in their approval ratings following their State of the Union speeches in the years in which they ran for second terms. Carter's 1980 pre-speech rating of 56% was already somewhat high following rallies in support because of the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Reagan's 52% approval rating showed a slight increase to 55% following his 1984 State of the Union address. Surprisingly, his 1984 approval ratings reached only into the high 50s despite his winning 98% of the electoral votes in the election, the most since the awarding of electoral votes was tied to the popular vote in 1828.

Reagan's five-point drop in 1987 probably does not reflect much upon his State of the Union address that year, as the first poll following his address came more than a month after his speech. However, a four-point drop in 1985 may suggest a slight loss of public support following that State of the Union speech.

Partisan Audiences

Gallup has conducted reaction polls in conjunction with CNN and USA Today with those who say they watched the speech immediately following several recent State of the Union addresses. Most of these reaction polls show a viewing audience heavily tilted toward the president's natural supporters. For example, the audience for last year's speech consisted of a majority of Republican identifiers (52%), along with 25% Democrats and 22% independents. That compares with a roughly even division in party support among the general public.

The following table shows the partisan composition of Gallup's State of the Union-night poll samples, which give a good indication of the political makeup of the viewing audience. The 1995 address, given shortly after Republicans took control of Congress, is the only recent speech in which the viewing audience roughly approximated national party support. In most other speeches, those from the president's party comprised a much greater percentage of the viewing audience.

In general, then, the president is largely addressing an audience which is likely to support him, making it harder to move the needle on his approval rating. The audiences for Bush's State of the Union addresses are even more partisan than those for Clinton's. As a result, it would be unlikely -- but not unprecedented -- for Bush to see his public standing improve after tonight's speech.

Survey Methods

Results for pre- and post-State of the Union approval ratings are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of approximately 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted between 1990 and 2004, and in-person interviews with approximately 1,500 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted between 1978 and 1988. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Results for the party breakdown of the State of the Union audiences are based on telephone interviews with pre-recruited respondents who indicated they planned to watch the State of the Union, and confirmed that they had done so when Gallup called immediately following the speech. The polls represent between 380 and 500 speech watchers, and have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.