Speech Watchers React Favorably to Bush's Proposals

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Tuesday night's instant-reaction poll of speech watchers, who tilted Republican by nearly a 2-1 ratio, found President George W. Bush receiving high marks for his State of the Union address. The audience came with a mostly positive view of the president and left with an even more positive one, both generally and about specific policies. Still, Bush's ratings this year are lower than his ratings last year, but about the same as in 2004.

The major findings of the CNN/USA Today/Gallup instant-reaction poll:

• Overall, 75% of speech watchers say their reaction to Bush's address was positive, including 48% who say "very" positive.

o Last year, 86% said positive, with 60% very positive.

o Four years ago, a few months after 9/11, 94% were positive and 74% very positive.

• Sixty-eight percent of speech watchers say Bush's proposed policies in general will move the country in the right direction, while 28% say the wrong direction. Last year, the figures were more positive -- 77% said the right direction, and just 20% said the wrong direction.

o In Bush's first two State of the Union speeches, one before and the other after 9/11, speech watchers were more positive -- 91% said the right direction in 2002, and 84% said so in 2001.

o When this sentiment was measured after President Bill Clinton's State of the Union speeches in 1994 and 1995, 83% and 84% of speech watchers, respectively, said the president's policies would move the country in the right direction.

• In the pre-speech interview, 52% of people who intended to watch the speech said Bush's policies would move the country in the right direction, compared with 68% who said that after the speech. Last year, the before-and-after figures were 67% and 77%, respectively.
  
  
• Bush's comments about the economy and Iraq apparently persuaded many speech watchers that things are better than they thought.

o Before the speech, the audience was slightly more inclined to think the economy was getting worse (40%) than getting better (36%). After the speech, these same people tilted toward a more optimistic view, with 44% saying the economy is getting better, and 31% saying worse -- a 17-point positive swing in opinion.

o Similarly, by a 36% to 30% margin, speech watchers initially said the situation in Iraq was getting worse rather than better. After Bush's speech, they were more likely to say the situation was getting better than worse, by a 40% to 28% margin -- an 18-point positive swing in opinion.

• When asked to evaluate how effective Bush's proposals for healthcare and energy consumption would be, speech watchers were mostly optimistic.

o Sixty-four percent expect Bush's new healthcare proposal to be effective, including 18% who say "very" effective. Thirty-three percent say it won't be effective.

o Speech watchers reacted more enthusiastically to Bush's proposal to deal with energy consumption in this country. By a margin of 75% to 21%, they expect his proposal to be effective.

• Finally, a solid majority of speech watchers express cautious optimism that most of Bush's policies will be enacted into law. Sixty-six percent say it is likely to happen, but that includes only 5% who say it is "very" likely. Another 33% say it's not likely to happen.

Republicans Outnumbered Democrats by Nearly 2-to-1 Among Speech Watchers

Typically, presidential speech watchers disproportionately identify with the party of the president. Tuesday night, there were almost twice as many Republicans as Democrats watching the address. Republicans constituted 43% of the audience, Democrats 23%, and independents 33%. Last year, the margin was tilted even more toward the Republicans -- with GOP viewers outnumbering Democrats by 52% to 25%. Only 22% were independents.

The 20-point difference between the two major parties this year is the same as the difference in 2004. In 2003, the gap was just 12 points, but it was 25 points in 2002, shortly after 9/11. Among those who watched Clinton's speeches, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by margins that ranged from 7 to 15 percentage points. When the senior Bush gave his last State of the Union address in 1992, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the post-speech poll by just six percentage points, 37% to 31%.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 464 speech watchers, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 31, 2006. For results based on the total sample of speech watchers, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Survey respondents were first interviewed as part of random national adult samples by Gallup Jan. 29-30, 2006, at which time they indicated they planned to watch the president's State of the Union address and were willing to be re-interviewed by Gallup after the speech. Respondents' pre- and post-speech answers are shown for those questions that were asked on both surveys.

The sample consists of 43% of respondents who identify themselves as Republicans, 23% who identify themselves as Democrats, and 33% who identify themselves as independents.

Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

101. What was your overall reaction to Bush's speech tonight -- [ROTATED: very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, (or) very negative]?

102. Overall, would you describe -- [ITEMS ROTATED] -- as -- [ROTATED: getting better, staying about the same, or is getting worse]?

A. The state of the nation's economy today

B. The situation in Iraq for the United States today

103. Do you think the policies being proposed by George W. Bush will move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction?

104. Do you think the proposals Bush outlined in tonight's speech to deal with -- [ITEMS ROTATED] -- will be very effective, somewhat effective, not too effective, or not at all effective?

A. Healthcare

B. Energy consumption

105. How likely do you think it is that most of the programs Bush outlined in tonight's speech will be passed into law -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?