Iran Threat Poses Leadership Crisis for Americans

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans have less than ample confidence in either the Bush administration or the United Nations to handle the seemingly dicey situation concerning Iran's nuclear aspirations. According to a Feb. 9-12, 2006 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, only 45% of Americans are either very confident or somewhat confident about the administration's ability to handle the current situation in Iran; 47% express these levels of confidence in the United Nations. Only a small handful of Americans are very confident about either entity's abilities; the majority are generally not confident about either.

The looming diplomatic crisis concerns Iran's decision to proceed with nuclear fuel production in the face of international opposition. Iran's leaders say their uranium enrichment program will only be used in conjunction with energy production, but the United States and some other countries believe it is a pretense for Iran's real goal of creating nuclear weapons.

Most Americans favor using economic and diplomatic efforts as the initial means to compel Iran to shut down its nuclear program. Only 9% would take immediate military action, while two-thirds (68%) would use sanctions and diplomacy first; another 18% would do nothing.

Americans Divided on Exercising Military Option

When those who favor sanctions and diplomacy are asked what should happen if those methods fail, 4 in 10 say they would then exercise the military option, while about half are still opposed to that course.

Altogether, 45% are amenable to the use of force in this situation -- either immediately or as a last resort. The same number (45%) say they would oppose U.S. military action against Iran even if these approaches fail.

Iran Threat Taken Seriously

The prospect of an Iranian nuclear program is highly worrisome to Americans. Fully one-half of Americans think that if Iran does develop nuclear weapons, it is "very likely" Iran would provide those weapons to terrorists to use against the United States. Another 30% think this is somewhat likely. Speculation about Iran providing nuclear weapons to terrorists to use against Israel is similar.

A majority of Americans also think it is at least somewhat likely that the Iranian government would use nuclear weapons directly against the United States and Israel, although only 30% think this is very likely in terms of the United States.

U.S. Policy a Cause for Concern

Also worrisome to Americans, however, is how the United States will achieve its goal of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. A majority are concerned that the United States will be too quick to use military force, including a third (34%) who are very concerned about this.

A majority are also concerned that the United States will not do enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including a quarter (26%) who are very concerned.

On both issues, Democrats are more concerned about the prospect of U.S. policy failure than are Republicans. Close to half of Democrats (48%) are very concerned that the United States will be too quick to use force; this contrasts with 38% of independents and 15% of Republicans. Similarly, 36% of Democrats are very concerned the United States will not do enough to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons. This drops to 25% among independents and 18% among Republicans.

Iran's Broader Image Problem

Iran has few defenders among Americans. Only 7% have a favorable impression of that country while 86% have an unfavorable impression. This makes Iran the least popular of 22 countries rated in Gallup's annual World Affairs Poll, conducted Feb. 6-9, 2006. Other countries with high unfavorable ratings include North Korea, the Palestinian Authority, Iraq, Cuba, and Libya; Iran ranks below all of these.

Iran also ranks at the top of the list of countries named when respondents were recently asked to say what country anywhere in the world they consider to be America's greatest enemy. Close to one-third of Americans (31%) name Iran, up from 14% last year. In holding the top position, Iran has displaced North Korea and Iraq, which tied for the spot last year.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-12, 2006 and a separate sample of 1,002 national adults, conducted Feb. 6-9, 2006. For results based on samples of these sizes, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

25. What do you think the United States should do to get Iran to shut down its nuclear program -- [ROTATED: take military action against Iran now, use economic and diplomatic efforts but not take military action right now, or take no action against Iran at this time]?

26. Suppose the United States does take economic and diplomatic action, but those efforts do not work. If that happens, do you think the United States should -- or should not -- take military action against Iran?

BASED ON 920 ADULTS WHO SAY THE U.S. SHOULD NOT TAKE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN NOW

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.25-26): MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN

23. How confident are you in the Bush administration's ability to handle the situation in Iran -- very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

24. How confident are you in the United Nations' ability to handle the situation in Iran -- very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

27. How concerned are you that the U.S. will be too quick to use military force in an attempt to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not concerned at all?

28. How concerned are you that the U.S. will not do enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not concerned at all?

29. Suppose Iran DOES develop nuclear weapons. Just your best guess, how likely is it that -- [RANDOM ORDER] -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

21. What one country anywhere in the world do you consider to be America's greatest enemy today? [Open-ended]

22. Next, I'd like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. First, is your overall opinion of [RANDOM ORDER] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? How about -- [INSERT NEXT ITEM]?

J. Iran