Public Sees Alternative Fuels as Wave of Future

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With worldwide demand for oil increasing, there are questions about whether the world's oil supply will be able to meet future demand. A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that most Americans expect oil supplies to eventually run short. The public's expectation is that, within 30 years, most U.S. automobiles will primarily run on alternative sources of fuel rather than gasoline. Americans lack consensus over whether the government, automobile companies, or oil companies should have the primary responsibility for developing fuel alternatives.

Oil Supply and Demand

The March 10-12 poll finds that 77% of Americans think the world will eventually run short of oil, while 20% believe the global oil supply will always be able to keep up with demand. Most of the people who think the oil supply is limited believe it will be depleted in the next generation or two -- 39% say it will happen in less than 25 years, and another 16% say between 25 years and 50 years. Thirty-six percent believe the supply will run short in 50 years or more, including 14% who believe it will not happen for at least another century.

When the views of all Americans are analyzed -- including those who do not think the world will run short of oil -- the median estimate of when the supply will run short is 50 years. That means half of Americans think the oil supply will run short in 50 years or less, and half think it will be more than 50 years or will never run out.

Just your best guess, how many years do you think it will be before the world runs short of oil?

Finding Alternative Fuels

Looking ahead, only 21% of Americans believe most cars will still be powered by gasoline in 30 years, while 76% say most cars will largely run on other types of fuels.

The public is largely divided as to who has the primary responsibility for developing alternatives to gasoline -- 38% say the government, 33% energy and oil companies, and 24% automobile companies. There are partisan differences here -- the plurality of both independents and Democrats believe the government should have the main responsibility, followed by energy and oil companies and automobile companies. Republicans are much more divided, but more say oil companies should mainly be responsible than say automobile companies or the government.

Prior Gallup polling has shown widespread public support for proposals that involve government spending to develop new energy sources. In Gallup's March 13-16 Environment poll, for example, 85% say they favor "spending government money to develop alternate sources of fuel for automobiles."

The lack of consensus on government as the primary actor suggests that many Americans are also looking for non-governmental solutions.

Americans would apparently not favor a steep gas tax that would raise revenue to develop new types of fuel. Only 29% of Americans favor a hypothetical proposal to institute a federal gas tax of $1 per gallon if the dollar went toward developing new fuel types. Sixty-nine percent are opposed.

Support for the proposal is generally low even among those who think the United States is currently facing an energy crisis (34%) and among those who think the global oil supply will run out (34%).

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,001 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 10-12, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now, thinking about the price of gasoline,

29. Suppose you currently paid $2.35 for a gallon of gasoline.Would you favor or oppose a federal tax that would raise the price to $3.35 per gallon, with the extra dollar going to the development of new types of fuel?

40. Looking ahead, do you think -- [ROTATED: the global supply of oil will always be able to keep up with the demand for oil around the world, (or do you think) the world will eventually run short of oil sometime in the future]?

41. Just your best guess, how many years do you think it will be before the world runs short of oil?

RESULTS SHOWN IN STORY

43. Now, I have a question about the forms of fuel that Americans will be using 30 years from now. Do you think -- [ROTATED: gasoline will still fuel most of the cars Americans drive in 30 years, (or) most of the cars Americans drive will use some other type of fuel in 30 years]?

44. Who do you think should have the primary responsibility for spending money to develop alternative sources of energy to gasoline -- [ROTATED: the government, the automobile companies, (or) energy or oil companies]?