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March 28, 2006

Healthcare of Great Concern to Republicans and Democrats Alike

To mobilize party base, Democrats and Republicans likely to choose different issues

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Two-thirds of Americans say they personally worry "a great deal" about the availability and affordability of healthcare, according to the latest Gallup Poll, making that issue the most worrisome among a dozen included in the poll.

Next I'm going to read a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all? First, how much do you personally worry about -- ?

Percentage who say they worry about each item "a great deal"	2006 Mar 13-16	2005 Mar 7-10	Change 2006 - 2005
	%	%
The availability and affordability of healthcare	68	60	8
The Social Security system	51	48	3
The availability and affordability of energy	48	39	9
Drug use	48	42	6
Crime and violence	45	46	-1
The possibility of future terrorist attacks in the U.S.	45	41	4
The economy	43	38	5
Hunger and homelessness	43	37	6
Illegal immigration	43	33	10
The quality of the environment	40	35	5
Unemployment	31	27	4
Race relations	22	16	6

Other issues perceived as causing a great deal of worry by about half the public include the Social Security system (51%), the availability and affordability of energy (48%), and drug use (48%).

Several issues are mentioned as very worrisome by at least 4 in 10 Americans: crime and violence (45%), the possibility of future terrorist attacks in the United States (45%), the economy (43%), hunger and homelessness (43%), illegal immigration (43%), and quality of the environment (40%).

Two issues are of much lower worry to the public -- unemployment (31%) and race relations (22%).

The table shows that worry is higher this year on 11 of the 12 issues, with the largest increases in worry found on illegal immigration (+10 percentage points), energy (+9) and healthcare (+8).

Political Strategy in Addressing Issues

Most of these issues are likely to be debated at some point during the upcoming congressional election. Not all candidates will emphasize the same issues, of course, but a comparison of the issues by party affiliation can reveal some insights about the strategy of candidates whose strategic goals are to target specific political segments defined by partisan affiliation.

2006 Mar 13-16 % Worried a "great deal"	Repu- blicans	Indep- endents	Demo- crats
	%	%	%
The availability and affordability of healthcare	57	66	78
The Social Security system	52	45	58
The availability and affordability of energy	46	43	54
Drug use	46	43	53
Crime and violence	41	43	49
The possibility of future terrorist attacks in the U.S.	52	39	47
The economy	29	39	59
Hunger and homelessness	32	38	55
Illegal immigration	49	39	42
The quality of the environment	26	41	51
Unemployment	23	24	46
Race relations	18	17	30
Average	39	40	52

The most worrisome issue for all three partisan groups is healthcare, though the percentage of Republicans (57%) who are worried is much smaller than the percentage of Democrats (78%). In fact, Democrats are more concerned than Republicans on 11 of the 12 issues -- though the differences on some issues are minor. On average, 52% of Democrats say they are worried "a great deal" across these 12 issues, compared with 40% of independents and 39% of Republicans.

To compare the relative importance of the issues among the partisan groups, it's important to take into account the average tendency of Democrats to express more worry than Republicans on most issues. For this purpose, a "net worry" scored has been calculated by subtracting the average percentage who worry in each group from the percentage in that group who worry about each specific issue. For example, 30% of Democrats say they are worried a great deal about race relations, compared with 18% of Republicans, suggesting a big difference (of 12 points) between the two groups. But as it turns out, Democrats on average are worried more than Republicans by 13 points -- 52% vs. 39%, respectively, suggesting that race relations is relatively no more worrisome to Democrats than Republicans.

The "net worry" score takes this adjustment into account. Among Republicans the "net worry" score is 21 points, because the average percentage worry among Republicans (39%) minus the percentage who are worried about race relations (18%) is 21 percentage points. For Democrats the "net worry" score is 22 points (52% average worry minus 30% worry about race relations = 22 percentage points). These results show that relative to other issues, race relations receives about the same degree of worry among both partisan groups.

A similar calculation for the other issues yields a way off ascertaining the most partisan issues, the ones with the highest positive and the highest negative "difference" scores.

The list below is rank-ordered by the difference in the net worry scores, with positive differences indicating issues disproportionately worrisome to Democrats and the negative scores indicating issues disproportionately worrisome to Republicans.

Net Percentage Who Are Worried a Great Deal (percentage worried about each item minus average percentage worried about all items) Compared by Political Party
"Net Worry" for each item	Repub- licans	Demo- crats	Difference: % Democrats - % Republicans
	%	%
The economy	-10	7	17
The quality of the environment	-13	-1	12
Hunger and homelessness	-7	3	10
Unemployment	-16	-6	10
The availability and affordability of healthcare	18	26	8
Race relations	-21	-22	- 1
The availability and affordability of energy	7	2	-5
Crime and violence	2	-3	- 5
Drug use	7	1	-6
The Social Security system	13	6	-7
The possibility of future terrorist attacks in the U.S.	13	-5	-18
Illegal immigration	10	-10	-20

The two most partisan issues are the economy (+17) and illegal immigration (-20). The economy is relatively much more important to Democrats than to Republicans, while illegal immigration is relatively much more important to Republicans than Democrats.

In addition to the economy, the issues that may help Democratic candidates mobilize their base the most are the environment and two issues related to the poor -- the hungry and homeless, and the unemployed. All three of these issues show a net difference of at least +10 points. For Republicans, the other issue besides illegal immigration that could help mobilize their base is the possibility of another terrorist attack against the United States, with a net difference of -18 points.

Candidates who want to take a broader approach -- by appealing to voters who are not necessarily part of their party base -- may be likely to choose issues in the middle of the spectrum, all of which have difference scores that are less than 10 points. Three such issues include healthcare (the most worrisome among all three partisan groups), energy, and drug use. The net worry scores for all three issues are positive for both Republicans and Democrats. Worry about crime is a little above average for Republicans and a little below average for Democrats, suggesting that this issue is not dominant for either group -- but still somewhat worrisome to both groups.

In congressional districts that are heavily dominated by one party, one might expect the majority party candidate to campaign primarily on issues that mobilize the base. The minority party candidate in that district is more likely to emphasize issues that both appeal to the party base and have a broader appeal to other partisan groups.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 13-16, 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

12. Next I'm going to read a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all? First, how much do you personally worry about -- [ITEMS A-J READ IN RANDOM ORDER, ITEM L READ LAST]?

2006 Mar 13-16 (sorted by "a great deal")	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little/ Not at all
	%	%	%
The availability and affordability of healthcare	68	21	11
The Social Security system	51	29	20
The availability and affordability of energy	48	35	17
Drug use	48	25	27
Crime and violence	45	36	19
The possibility of future terrorist attacks in the U.S.	45	31	24
The economy	43	37	19
Hunger and homelessness	43	34	23
Illegal immigration	43	29	28
The quality of the environment	40	37	23
Unemployment	31	34	35
Race relations	22	36	42

Full Trends: Concern about Problems Facing the Country

A. Hunger and homelessness

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	43	34	18	5	*

2005 Mar 7-10	37	27	27	8	1
2004 Mar 8-11	35	29	28	8	--
2003 Mar 24-25	37	33	22	8	--
2002 Mar 4-7	37	30	26	7	*
2001 Mar 5-7	45	34	16	5	*
* Less than 0.5%

B. Crime and violence

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	45	36	15	4	*

2005 Mar 7-10	46	25	26	3	*
2004 Mar 8-11	46	26	24	4	*
2003 Mar 24-25	45	31	18	5	1
2002 Mar 4-7	49	27	20	4	0
2001 Mar 5-7	62	26	9	3	*
* Less than 0.5%

C. The quality of the environment

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	40	37	18	5	*

2005 Mar 7-10	35	30	28	6	1
2004 Mar 8-11	35	27	31	7	*
2003 Mar 24-25	34	34	21	10	1
2002 Mar 4-7	35	31	27	6	1
2001 Mar 5-7	42	35	17	5	1
* Less than 0.5%

D. The availability and affordability of healthcare

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	68	21	7	4	*

2005 Mar 7-10	60	19	14	6	1
2004 Mar 8-11	62	18	13	7	*
2003 Mar 24-25	55	24	12	8	1
2002 Mar 4-7	56	23	14	7	*
2001 Mar 5-7	60	24	11	5	*
* Less than 0.5%

E. Drug use

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	48	25	18	9	*

2005 Mar 7-10	42	23	24	11	*
2004 Mar 8-11	46	19	20	14	1
2003 Mar 24-25	42	26	20	12	*
2002 Mar 4-7	49	22	19	9	1
2001 Mar 5-7	58	22	13	7	*
* Less than 0.5%

F. Race relations

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	22	36	23	19	*

2005 Mar 7-10	16	21	36	26	1
2004 Mar 8-11	19	23	34	23	1
2003 Mar 24-25	22	31	26	21	*
2002 Mar 4-7	23	25	30	21	1
2001 Mar 5-7	28	34	23	15	*
* Less than 0.5%

G. Illegal immigration

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	43	29	18	10	*

2005 Mar 7-10	33	23	29	14	1
2004 Mar 8-11	37	22	25	15	1
2003 Mar 24-25	37	26	23	13	1
2002 Mar 4-7	33	25	26	16	*
2001 Mar 5-7	28	24	29	18	1
* Less than 0.5%

H. The availability and affordability of energy

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	48	35	12	5	*

2005 Mar 7-10	39	26	26	8	1
2004 Mar 8-11	35	28	25	11	1
2003 Mar 24-25	27	36	25	11	1
2002 Mar 4-7	32	30	29	9	*
2001 Mar 5-7	46	31	16	6	1
* Less than 0.5%

I. The economy

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	43	37	14	5	*

2005 Mar 7-10	38	31	24	6	1
2004 Mar 8-11	41	29	24	6	*
2003 Mar 24-25	44	35	15	6	*
2002 Mar 4-7	37	36	21	6	*
2001 Mar 5-7	35	42	19	4	*
* Less than 0.5%

J. Unemployment

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	31	34	24	11	1

2005 Mar 7-10	27	26	31	15	1
2004 Mar 8-11	36	25	29	10	*
2003 Mar 24-25	36	29	22	13	*
2002 Mar 4-7	33	30	25	12	*
2001 Mar 5-7	30	33	24	13	*
* Less than 0.5%

K. The Social Security system

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	51	29	14	6	*

2005 Mar 7-10	48	24	20	7	1
* Less than 0.5%

L. The possibility of future terrorist attacks in the U.S.

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 13-16	45	31	18	6	*

2005 Mar 7-10	41	27	25	7	*
2004 Mar 8-11	42	28	22	8	*
2003 Mar 24-25	49	30	16	5	*
2002 Mar 4-7	49	26	20	5	*
* Less than 0.5%

Majority of Americans Satisfied With Their Healthcare Plans

November 29, 2007

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