GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The average American says that the price of gas will peak at $3.62 a gallon where they live this year, much higher than the $2.93 a gallon Americans report paying now. If gas does stay at those predicted levels for a while, almost two-thirds of Americans say that they will take steps to cut back on their driving, while much smaller percentages say they will have to cut back on general spending or get a more fuel-efficient vehicle.
An April 28-30 USA Today/Gallup poll asked Americans how much they currently pay for a gallon of gas:
About how much would you say you currently pay for a gallon of gasoline?
|
Less than $2.75
|
$2.75-$2.99
|
$3.00-$3.24
|
$3.25-$3.49
|
$3.50 or higher
|
No opinion
|
Mean
|
Median
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
|
|
2006 Apr 28-30
|
9
|
50
|
32
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
$2.93
|
$2.95
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 Aug 28-30
|
74
|
19
|
4
|
*
|
1
|
2
|
$2.65
|
$2.62
|
|
* Less than 0.5%
|
Americans report paying an average of $2.93 a gallon, up from the $2.65 average the public reported when Gallup last asked this question in late August 2005, during an increase in prices that worsened after Hurricane Katrina devastated parts of the Gulf Coast.
Americans living in the East and West say they are paying more than those in the South and Midwest:
|
About how much would you say you currently pay for a gallon of gasoline?
|
|
Average price per gallon
|
|
East
|
$2.98
|
|
Midwest
|
$2.86
|
|
South
|
$2.87
|
|
West
|
$3.04
|
There are no significant differences in the amount paid by people of different political orientations, suggesting that the reality of high prices affects Americans of all political persuasions equally:
|
About how much would you say you currently pay for a gallon of gasoline?
|
|
Average price per gallon
|
|
Republicans
|
$2.92
|
|
Independents
|
$2.94
|
|
Democrats
|
$2.93
|
There is little expectation on the part of Americans that the price of gas has peaked. When asked how high they think the price will get this year in the area where they live, Americans on average say $3.62.
How high do you think the price of a gallon of gasoline will go in the area where you live this year?
|
Less than $2.75
|
$2.75-$2.99
|
$3.00-$3.24
|
$3.25-$3.49
|
$3.50 or higher
|
No opinion
|
Mean
|
Median
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
|
|
2006 Apr 28-30
|
1
|
2
|
26
|
11
|
56
|
5
|
$3.62
|
$3.50
|
Putting all of this together yields the following pattern of projected increases:
|
Expected Increase in Gas Prices per Gallon From Current Price
|
|
2006 Apr 28-30
|
|
%
|
|
Current price is the high for the year
|
4
|
|
Increase of $0.01 to less than $0.25
|
18
|
|
Increase of $0.25 to less than $0.50
|
20
|
|
Increase of $0.50 to less than $0.75
|
19
|
|
Increase of $0.75 or more
|
34
|
|
|
|
No opinion
|
6
|
|
|
|
Mean
|
+$0.65
|
|
Median
|
+$0.53
|
The average difference between the price a respondent indicates they are paying now and what they predict they will be paying later this year is $0.65, with one-third of Americans saying that the price in their local area will increase as much as $0.75 or more.
Democrats are more pessimistic than Republicans about price increases, with Democrats predicting that the price of gas in their area will go up $0.77 on average, compared with a projected increase of just $0.53 among Republicans.
Americans living in the East predict, on average, that the price of gas will go up by $0.77, compared with a predicted jump of $0.65 in the West, $0.64 in the South, and $0.56 in the Midwest.
How would this projected increase in gas prices affect the behavior and lifestyle of the average American?
If the price of gasoline stays that high for awhile, what, if anything, will you have to do differently in your daily life? [OPEN-ENDED]
|
2006 Apr 28-30
|
|
%
|
|
Cut back on driving/less travel
|
33
|
|
Budget money better/less spending
|
12
|
|
Don't drive/stay at home
|
9
|
|
Get smaller/more fuel-efficient vehicle
|
8
|
|
Walk
|
5
|
|
Use public transportation
|
4
|
|
Car pool
|
4
|
|
Consolidate driving/do everything in one trip
|
3
|
|
Bike
|
3
|
|
Move closer to work/less commuting
|
2
|
|
Charge more for business to make up loss
|
1
|
|
|
|
Other
|
8
|
|
None
|
26
|
|
No opinion
|
1
|
|
|
Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.
|
All in all, 63% of Americans indicate that in one way or another, they will attempt to cut back on use of their automobile if the price of gas goes as high as they predict: driving less, walking or using a bicycle, using public transportation or car pooling, and consolidating shopping and other trips.
Some observers have noted that one salubrious benefit of the sharp increase in the price of gas is that consumption of gas will fall, which in turn may lower the price of energy (of course, if the price falls, consumption may go back up, therefore increasing the price once again). These data would suggest the real possibility of a drop in consumption if gas approaches the $3.62 per gallon that is predicted.
One other possible silver lining in the cloud of high gas prices is improved physical fitness; 8% of Americans say they will walk or bicycle more if the price of gas goes up, possibly increasing their fitness level, decreasing their weight, and in general causing good health and less of a burden on the nation's health system.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,011 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 28-30, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
