Iraq Rates as Most Important Election Issue

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds that Americans rate Iraq as the top issue to their vote for Congress this year and see the Democrats in Congress as better able to handle it than the Republicans in Congress at this point. Corruption in government, terrorism, the economy, and healthcare are also issues rated highly in terms of their importance to the vote. Terrorism remains a relative strength for the Republicans, but is the only issue of 11 measured in the poll on which the GOP has an advantage over the Democrats.

The June 23-25 poll asked Americans to indicate how important each of 11 issues would be to their vote for Congress this year. The following graph shows the percent who rated each as extremely important.

A majority of Americans, 55%, say the situation in Iraq will be an extremely important issue in their vote. Slightly fewer than half rate corruption in government and terrorism as extremely important, and at least 4 in 10 Americans give the same rating to the economy, healthcare, and gas prices.

Only one in three Americans rate immigration as being extremely important, placing it near the bottom of the list of issues, just ahead of abortion and same-sex marriage. The low relative ranking of immigration occurs even though there has been a seven-point increase since January (from 26% to 33%) in the public's rated importance of the issue to their vote.

In addition to immigration, four other issues have shown a significant increase in ascribed importance since January -- Iraq (up 10 percentage points), gas prices (up eight points), the economy (up seven points), and corruption in government (up six percentage points). Five issues have been stable since then, including abortion, healthcare, Social Security, taxes, and terrorism. Same-sex marriage was not included in the January list.

There is broad agreement among Republicans, Democrats, and independents on the importance of many of the issues tested in the poll. For example, Iraq ranks at or near the top of the list for all three partisan groups. Also, about half of all groups view corruption as important, and taxes, abortion, and same-sex marriage rank as low priority issues for all three party groups.

Percent Rating Issues as Extremely Important to Their Vote, by Party
	Overall	Democrat	Independent	Republican
	%	%	%	%
Iraq	55	61	51	52
Corruption	49	49	50	48
Terrorism	47	42	47	54
Economy	45	51	43	38
Healthcare	44	53	40	35
Gas prices	41	48	34	40
Social Security	39	43	37	35
Immigration	33	26	34	45
Taxes	33	32	31	36
Abortion	27	29	22	31
Same-sex marriage	24	24	15	37

Nevertheless, some variation exists by party in the perceived importance of these issues. For example, Republicans are much more likely to rate immigration as an important issue than Democrats. Immigration ranks fourth in stated importance among Republicans (45% say it is extremely important to their vote), while it is the 10th most important issue among Democrats, just ahead of same-sex marriage.

On the other hand, Democrats are much more likely to rate healthcare as a key factor in their votes (53% for Democrats versus 35% for Republicans). Healthcare is only topped by Iraq among Democrats, while it places in the lower tier of issues for Republicans.

Democrats are also more likely than Republicans to rate Iraq and the economy as extremely important issues, while Republicans give a higher priority to terrorism than Democrats.

Party Better Able to Handle the Issues

The poll also asked Americans whether they thought the Republicans or Democrats in Congress would do a better job of handling each of the 11 issues.

Congressional Democrats are seen as better equipped than Congressional Republicans to handle all but one issue -- terrorism. This could be a general reflection of Democratic strength (or perhaps more accurately, Republican weakness) Gallup has observed this year on a variety of measures including Congressional voting preference and party favorability ratings.

On the key Iraq issue, 47% of Americans think the Democrats in Congress would do a better job, while 37% say the Republicans. Democrats are also favored on corruption by 20 points (44% to 24%), but a significant percentage of Americans (32%) volunteer that neither party is better on the issue. Meanwhile, Republicans have an 11-point advantage on terrorism (46% to 35%). Terrorism has typically been a strong issue for President Bush and the Republican Party more generally, and many credit the Republicans' use of the issue for their gains in the 2002 elections.

The accompanying table summarizes the data on importance and party performance.

Issue Importance and Party Ability to Handle Issue
	Importance (% Rating Extremely Important)	Democratic advantage (% Dem Better Minus % Rep Better)
	%	%
Iraq	55	+10
Corruption	49	+20
Terrorism	47	-11
Economy	45	+15
Healthcare	44	+34
Gas prices	41	+30
Social Security	39	+27
Immigration	33	+2
Taxes	33	+14
Abortion	27	+15
Same-sex marriage	24	+13

All in all, Democrats have their strongest positioning compared with Republicans on healthcare, gas prices, and Social Security -- three issues that are of mid-level importance to voters. Republicans have their one absolute advantage on terrorism and are close to being tied with Democrats on immigration.

At this point, it appears Republicans' best chances for improving their electoral prospects would come from 1) improving their perceptual standing on the Iraq issue or 2) trying to increase the perceived importance of the terrorism issue. Republicans can take solace in the fact that terrorism is one of the more highly rated issues on the importance scale, but whether it could eventually eclipse Iraq in importance remains to be seen. Both parties seem intent on using the Iraq issue to their advantage this year -- with Republicans using it to burnish their usually strong foreign policy credentials, while Democrats attempt to use the lack of progress in the war as an indication of failed Republican policies and leadership on the issue.

Even though immigration has been one of the top issues Congress has dealt with this year, the public still does not view it as a top priority. Its main utility to the Republican electoral strategy may come in its ability to potentially rally the party's base to the polls this fall.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, aged18 and older, conducted June 23-25, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

15. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for Congress this year -- will it be -- extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. Abortion

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	27	24	24	24	1

2006 Jan 6-8	27	25	25	21	1
2002 Sep 20-22	18	28	24	28	2

B. Corruption in government

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	49	36	12	3	1

2006 Jan 6-8	43	38	15	3	1
2005 Oct 21-23	45	36	15	3	1

C. The economy

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	45	40	13	2	1

2006 Jan 6-8	38	45	14	1	1
2005 Oct 21-23	43	41	15	1	*
2002 Sep 20-22 ^	37	44	17	2	*
2002 Aug 19-21 ^	34	44	17	3	2

* Less than 0.5%
^ WORDING: Economic conditions

D. Gas prices

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	41	32	19	8	*

2006 Jan 6-8	33	33	26	8	1
2005 Oct 21-23	41	29	22	8	*

* Less than 0.5%

E. Healthcare

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	44	36	17	3	*

2006 Jan 6-8	43	39	15	2	1
2005 Oct 21-23	42	37	18	3	*
2002 Sep 20-22 ^	35	39	22	4	*

* Less than 0.5%
^ Asked of a half sample.

F. Immigration

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	33	32	23	11	1

2006 Jan 6-8	26	35	29	9	1

G. The situation in Iraq

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	55	34	8	3	1

2006 Jan 6-8	45	40	11	3	1
2005 Oct 21-23	44	37	13	4	2

H. Same-sex marriage

Extremely
important

Very
important

Moderately
important

Not that
important

No
opinion

2006 Jun 23-25

I. Social Security

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	39	37	21	4	*

2006 Jan 6-8	36	43	18	3	1
2005 Oct 21-23	38	37	20	5	*
2002 Sep 20-22 ^	34	37	24	5	*
2002 Aug 19-21	34	36	21	7	2

^Asked of a half sample.
* Less than 0.5%

J. Taxes

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	33	36	26	5	*

2006 Jan 6-8	33	38	24	4	1
2005 Oct 21-23	35	38	23	3	1
2002 Sep 20-22 ^	27	33	32	7	1

^Asked of a half sample.
* Less than 0.5%

K. Terrorism

	Extremely important	Very important	Moderately important	Not that important	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Jun 23-25	47	34	15	4	*

2006 Jan 6-8	45	35	16	3	1
2005 Oct 21-23	45	32	19	4	*
2002 Sep 20-22 ^	47	36	13	3	1

^ Asked of a half sample.
* Less than 0.5%

16. Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?