Most Americans Do Not Expect Significant Decrease in Gas Prices

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- More than half of Americans expect gas prices in their local areas to increase between now and the fall, according to a recent Gallup Panel poll. That poll was taken before crude oil prices reached a record high on Wednesday. Only about one in four Americans believe gas prices will ever go down by 50 cents from their current level; only a tiny minority thinks prices will ever drop by a dollar. Republicans are more optimistic than independents or Democrats about the current situation involving gasoline prices.

The poll was conducted June 26-29 of a nationally representative sample of 1,002 adult members of Gallup's household panel.

Overall Results

Just one in six Americans expect gas prices to decrease between now and the fall. The vast majority expect prices to increase (54%) or stay about the same as now (28%). Fifteen percent expect prices to "increase a lot," and 39% think they will "increase a little."

The poll asked Americans to think about gas prices in the long term to get a sense of whether they believe the current prices are temporary or if current prices near $3.00 a gallon nationally are the new reality for consumers. Respondents were asked first if they thought the price of gas would ever drop by 50 cents from what they are currently paying. Those who thought they would drop 50 cents were then asked if they thought prices would ever drop by a dollar. The results clearly show that most Americans expect high gas prices are here to stay.

Twenty-three percent of Americans believe the price of a gallon of gasoline will drop by 50 cents below today's price, while 76% do not expect this to happen. Only 6% of Americans express optimism that the price of a gallon of gasoline will decrease by one dollar in the future; 93% do not think this will ever happen.

Views of Gas Prices by Subgroup

Most Americans, regardless of demographic subgroup, do not think gas prices will ever drop significantly from the current levels, but it's still important to look at the results to these questions among different groups of Americans. The most pronounced differences are found between Republicans, independents, and Democrats.

Region

Americans residing in the East are slightly more negative in their belief that the price of a gallon of gasoline will ever drop by 50 cents than those living elsewhere. Americans in any region are similarly likely to believe that gas prices will rise over the next few months.

Age

The poll finds few differences between respondents in different age groups on views of gas prices in the nation at the present time.

Income

Americans in higher-income households (those earning $75,000 or more per year) are slightly more optimistic than those in lower-income households that the price of gasoline will ever go down by 50 cents. Those in the middle-income category (earning between $35,000 and $75,000 per year) are more likely to say gas prices will go up over the next few months than those in lower- or higher-income households.

Party Affiliation

Republicans are more optimistic about the current situation involving gas prices than are independents or Democrats -- fewer than half of Republicans (41%) say the price of gasoline in their local areas will increase between now and the fall, compared with a majority of both Democrats (58%) and independents (65%). Most Republicans believe gas prices will either remain at their current level (34%) or go down (24%).

Republicans are also more optimistic about gas prices in the long run than are independents or Democrats. Even though a majority of all three party groups do not expect gas prices to ever drop by 50 cents per gallon, Republicans (31%) are significantly more likely to believe this will happen than are Democrats (16%) or independents (22%).

Survey Methods

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,002 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 26-29, 2006. Respondents were randomly drawn from Gallup's nationally representative household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

17. Between now and the fall, do you think gas prices in your local area will -- [ROTATED: increase a lot, increase a little, stay about the same, decrease a little, (or) decrease a lot]?

18. In the future, do you think the price of a gallon of gasoline will ever drop by 50 cents from what you are paying now, or not?

19. (Asked of those who think price will drop fifty cents) Do you think the price of a gallon of gasoline will ever drop by one dollar in the future, or not?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.18-19): BASED ON A FULL SAMPLE