Americans Still Dour on U.S. Economy

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans remain quite dour on the U.S. economy. Almost two-thirds say the U.S. economy is getting worse, not better, and well less than half are willing to rate the economy as excellent or good. A slight majority of Americans say now is a bad time to find a quality job, although views of the job market have gradually improved this year, and are markedly more positive than in the earlier years of this decade. On a personal level, Americans say the most important financial problems facing their families are healthcare costs, basic lack of money, and energy costs.

Gallup's monthly tracking of economic perceptions for July shows scant signs of sustained improvement in Americans' views of the economy.

Asked to assess the current state of the U.S. economy, just 38% say it is excellent or good, while 42% say it is only fair and 19% say it is poor.

How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

More importantly, there is no sign that Americans see light at the end of the economic tunnel:

Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?

Almost two-thirds say the U.S. economy is getting worse, which remains a more negative assessment than was evident in the first two months of the year.

Responses to these two basic questions can be combined into a broad economic attitudes index. Those saying the economy is excellent or good and who also say the economy is either staying the same or getting better are labeled as "positive." Those who rate the economy as only fair or poor and say it is either staying the same or getting worse are labeled as "negative." The remainder of respondents are placed in the "mixed" category.

Here are the trends so far this year:

Basically, although there have been some fluctuations during the year, Americans are more negative now than at the beginning of the year. Americans were most negative in May, and although they became slightly less so in June and July, the public is still more negative about the economy now than in January. There was a 13-point gap between the negatives and the positives in Gallup's first poll of the year; now that gap has expanded to 30 points.

As usual, Democrats are significantly more negative on the economy than are Republicans, and those making less money are more negative than are those with higher incomes.

Good Time to Find a Job?

There continues to be a more positive note on the economic front, however. The percentage of Americans who say that now is a good time to find a quality job has been edging up over the last several years, while the percentage who say it is not a good time to be looking has now declined to its lowest point since Gallup first began asking this question in August 2001.

The numbers are still not strongly robust. A slight majority (51%) say it is a bad time to find a quality job and just 42% say it is a good time. But these numbers are dramatically different from the low point reached in March 2003, when only 16% said it was a good time and 81% said it was not.

The questions reviewed in this article ask Americans to assess the economic situation "out there" in the broad U.S. economy. There is little doubt, however, that Americans generalize from their own personal situations when asked to assess the economy at any level. And with that in mind, it is important to note the wide variety of problems that Americans mention when asked to name the most important financial problem facing their families today:

What is the most important financial problem facing your family today? [OPEN-ENDED]

No one problem dominates:

• The mention of the price of energy as the top problem has decreased to 10%, half of where it was in May.

• Healthcare costs remain at the top of the list.

• Many Americans complain about simply not having enough money or being too much in debt.

• Other complaints include the cost of owning or renting a home, retirement worries, college expenses, inflation, and taxes.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 6-9, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.