No Change in Strong Democratic Tilt Among Blacks and Hispanics

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's annual Survey on Minority Rights and Relations finds that two in three Hispanic registered voters and more than 8 in 10 black voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district in the November midterm elections. There has been little change in these attitudes compared with two years ago.

Congressional Vote Among Blacks

President George W. Bush's staff is reportedly negotiating arrangements for the president to speak to the annual national convention of the NAACP in Washington this week for the first time since he took office as president in 2001. The speech would come amidst continuing efforts on the part of the Republican Party to reach out to black voters -- a constituency which has traditionally been exceptionally Democratic in its voting orientation.

Gallup's recent Minority Rights and Relations Poll, however, finds little evidence that the Republicans have made any headway in the black community to date.

The poll, conducted June 8-25, 2006, included special oversamples of blacks and Hispanics (with Spanish language interviewing) to provide stable and reliable estimates of their attitudes. More than 8 in 10 black registered voters (83%) say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in the congressional district; only 13% would vote for the Republican candidate. Views among black voters are essentially the same as they were in the 2004 election.

The survey also shows that very few blacks in the U.S. today identify themselves as Republicans: Sixty-two percent of blacks interviewed identified themselves as Democrats, 31% as independents, and just 7% as Republicans. Along these same lines, the survey shows that only 15% of blacks say they approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president, while 78% disapprove.

Congressional Vote Among Hispanics

There has been a good deal of speculation about the impact of the ongoing debate over illegal immigration policies on the fortunes of the Republican Party among Hispanics.

The poll shows no signs of change in the voting intentions of Hispanics at this point compared to two years ago in either direction. Hispanics who are registered voters still break strongly for the Democrats in their congressional districts.

Sixty-three percent of Hispanic registered voters indicated that they will vote for the Democratic candidate in the midterm elections for Congress, while a third (32%) would vote for the Republican candidate. During the 2004 campaign season, Gallup found similar results among Hispanic registered voters, with 60% opting for the Democratic candidate and 35% for the Republican candidate.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 2,032 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 8-25, 2006, including oversamples of blacks and Hispanics that are weighted to reflect their proportions in the general population. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 872 non-Hispanic whites, aged 18 and older, are based on telephone interviews conducted June 8-25, 2006. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 500 blacks, aged 18 and older, are based on telephone interviews conducted June 8-25, 2006. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 506 Hispanics, aged 18 and older, are based on telephone interviews, conducted June 8-25, 2006. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points. (167 out of the 506 interviews with Hispanics were conducted in Spanish.)

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district -- [ROTATED: the Democratic Party's candidate (or) the Republican Party's candidate]?

2A. (Asked of those who are undecided:) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: the Democratic Party's candidate (or) the Republican Party's candidate]?