GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- To better examine how different groups of registered voters in the country plan to vote this November, Gallup has combined the results of interviews conducted from late July through early September of 2006 into a large aggregated sample of more than 3,000 registered voters.
The overall results on the generic ballot for this aggregated sample are a 50% to 42% preference among registered voters for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their local Congressional district. The results also show the expected partisan differences in predicted vote choice, with more than 9 in 10 voters who identify with each major party saying they would vote for their party's candidate if the elections were being held today. Among independents, voting Democrat (48%) has the decided edge over voting Republican (34%).
In addition to these partisan variations, however, there are other significant differences in preferences in this year's election, particularly by church attendance, race, gender, and region.
Here is a look at how different groups of voters would vote if the elections for Congress were being held today:
|
Congressional Generic Ballot |
||||
|
Registered |
Democratic |
Republican |
Democratic |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
All registered voters |
100 |
50 |
42 |
+8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republicans |
33 |
7 |
91 |
-84 |
|
Independents |
30 |
48 |
34 |
+14 |
|
Democrats |
37 |
92 |
5 |
+87 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservatives |
37 |
24 |
70 |
-46 |
|
Moderates |
42 |
57 |
34 |
+23 |
|
Liberals |
21 |
84 |
9 |
+75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative Republicans |
26 |
4 |
93 |
-89 |
|
Moderate/liberal Republicans |
16 |
14 |
81 |
-67 |
|
Pure independents |
7 |
27 |
19 |
+8 |
|
Conservative Democrats |
9 |
83 |
13 |
+70 |
|
Moderate Democrats |
24 |
88 |
7 |
+81 |
|
Liberal Democrats |
18 |
94 |
3 |
+91 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
White frequent churchgoers |
35 |
34 |
60 |
-26 |
|
White infrequent churchgoers |
49 |
55 |
38 |
+17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-Hispanic whites |
81 |
45 |
47 |
-2 |
|
Blacks |
10 |
82 |
11 |
+71 |
|
All others |
10 |
57 |
33 |
+24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
47 |
46 |
48 |
-2 |
|
Women |
53 |
54 |
37 |
+17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18- to 29-year-olds |
14 |
54 |
39 |
+15 |
|
30- to 49-year-olds |
40 |
48 |
44 |
+4 |
|
50- to 64-year-olds |
26 |
50 |
43 |
+7 |
|
65 years and older |
20 |
51 |
41 |
+10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
East |
22 |
57 |
33 |
+24 |
|
Midwest |
23 |
49 |
43 |
+6 |
|
South |
32 |
45 |
48 |
-3 |
|
West |
23 |
52 |
41 |
+11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Urban |
28 |
60 |
35 |
+25 |
|
Suburban |
50 |
47 |
44 |
+3 |
|
Rural |
23 |
45 |
46 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Less than $30,000 per year |
22 |
55 |
32 |
+23 |
|
$30,000-$74,999 per year |
45 |
52 |
41 |
+11 |
|
$75,000 or more per year |
33 |
46 |
50 |
-4 |
Politics
In addition to the party differences discussed above, vote choice varies significantly by self-described political ideology. Conservative voters are much more likely to choose the Republican candidate in their district than the Democratic candidate, by a 70% to 24% margin. Most liberal voters would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district if the elections were held today, while self-described moderates heavily skew towards the Democratic candidate.
Democratic and Republican voters at opposing ends of the ideological spectrum show the greatest party loyalty. Ninety-three percent of conservative Republicans and 94% of liberal Democrats plan to support their party's candidate in the House elections. But, moderate Democrats show as nearly as much party loyalty as liberal Democrats, with 88% planning to vote for the Democratic candidate this fall. Moderate and liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats still demonstrate high degrees of party loyalty, but not quite to the same extent as the other groups.
The results underscore how dominant party affiliation is as a predictor of the vote, and most of the group differences discussed below are largely a product of differences in party affiliation -- rather than vote choice -- among the groups.
Race
Non-Hispanic whites who are registered to vote in the midterm elections this year are divided in their vote for the House, with 45% saying they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate and 47% for the Republican candidate. This compares with more than 8 in 10 black registered voters who plan to vote for the Democratic candidate and only 11% who plan to vote for the Republican candidate. (This aggregated analysis is based on interviewing conducted solely in English and therefore does not include an estimate of the Hispanic vote.)
Religiosity
Voters' religious intensity has been an increasingly important factor in elections in recent history. Historically (and as shown above), the overwhelming majority of black voters cast their votes for Democratic candidates in elections. So, for analytic purposes, Gallup looks at voting preferences among white registered voters who attend church weekly or almost weekly, and white registered voters who attend church less often.
Among white frequent churchgoers, Republican candidates fare much better than Democratic candidates, by a 60% to 34% margin. Among white infrequent churchgoers, Democrats do better than the Republicans, at 55% to 38%, respectively.
Gender and Age
There is a decided gender gap in this year's projected congressional vote. Women voters are much more likely to say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate rather than the Republican candidate in their district this year, by a 54% to 37% margin. Men voters are more divided, with 46% opting for the Democratic candidate and 48% for the Republican candidate.
Democratic candidates fare best among young adults and senior citizens. Among 18- to 29-year-old registered voters, Democratic candidates have a 15-point lead over Republican candidates (54% to 39%); among registered voters aged 65 and older, the Democrats have a 10-point advantage over the Republicans (51% to 41%). Democrats have a more modest advantage among registered voters between the ages of 30 and 64, with a 48% to 44% lead among 30- to 49-year-olds and a 50% to 43% lead among 50- to 64-year-olds.
Region
Democratic candidates have the greatest advantage among registered voters in the East, with a 24-point lead over the Republicans in that region. Democrats also have an 11-point lead among voters in the West. Vote preferences are much more closely divided among voters in the Midwest (49% for Democrats vs. 43% for Republicans) and the South (45% vs. 48%, respectively).
Democrats do much better than Republicans among registered voters living in urban areas, at 60% to 35%. But in suburban and rural communities, the vote choice is much more closely divided. In suburban areas, Democrats are favored with a 47% Democrat to 44% Republican advantage. In rural areas, there is an almost even split -- 45% for the Democrat candidate to 46% for the Republican candidate.
Household Income
Democratic candidates are preferred over Republican candidates among voters residing in households earning less than $75,000 per year, with slightly more than half saying they would vote for the Democrat in their district this fall. The results are divided among voters residing in households earning more than $75,000 per year, with 46% preferring the Democrat and 50% the Republican.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews conducted in English with a randomly selected national sample of more than 3,000 adults who say they are registered to vote, aged 18 and older, conducted across four polls from late July 2006 through early September 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±2 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.