Gallup Poll Accuracy Record: Midterm Congressional Elections
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other/ Undecided
|
Dem. Advantage
|
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
2006
|
Nov 2-5
|
Likely Voters
|
51.0
|
44.0
|
5.0
|
7.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
53.0
|
45.0
|
3.3
|
8.0
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
54.1
|
45.9
|
--
|
8.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002
|
Oct 31-Nov 3
|
Likely Voters
|
45.0
|
51.0
|
4.0
|
-6.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
45.9
|
50.5
|
3.3
|
-4.6
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
47.6
|
52.4
|
--
|
-4.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998
|
Oct 29-Nov 1
|
Likely Voters
|
49.0
|
45.0
|
6.0
|
4.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
47.8
|
48.4
|
3.8
|
-0.6
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
49.7
|
50.3
|
--
|
-0.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1994
|
Nov 2-6
|
Likely Voters
|
46.5
|
53.5
|
0.0
|
-7.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
45.5
|
52.4
|
2.1
|
-6.9
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
46.5
|
53.5
|
--
|
-7.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1990
|
Oct 25-28
|
Likely Voters
|
54.0
|
46.0
|
0.0
|
8.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
52.9
|
44.9
|
2.2
|
8.0
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
54.1
|
45.9
|
--
|
8.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1986
|
Oct 24-27
|
Likely Voters
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
--
|
|
|
Registered
Voters
|
52.0
|
40.0
|
0.0
|
12.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
54.6
|
44.5
|
0.9
|
10.1
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
55.1
|
44.9
|
--
|
10.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1982
|
Oct 15-18/
Sep 17-20
|
Likely Voters
|
55.0
|
45.0
|
0.0
|
10.0
|
|
Final results based on
combined studies
|
Actual
|
55.3
|
43.1
|
1.6
|
12.2
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
56.2
|
43.8
|
--
|
12.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1978
|
Oct 27-30/
Oct 13-16
|
Likely Voters
|
55.0
|
45.0
|
0.0
|
10.0
|
|
Final results based on
combined studies
|
Actual
|
53.7
|
44.9
|
1.4
|
8.8
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
54.5
|
45.5
|
--
|
8.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1974
|
Oct 18-21
|
Likely Voters
|
60.0
|
40.0
|
0.0
|
20.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
57.6
|
40.6
|
1.8
|
17.0
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
58.7
|
41.3
|
--
|
17.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1970
|
Oct 26-31
|
Likely Voters
|
53.0
|
47.0
|
0.0
|
6.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
53.4
|
45.1
|
1.5
|
8.3
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
54.2
|
45.8
|
--
|
8.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1966
|
Oct 31-Nov 5
|
Likely Voters
|
52.5
|
47.5
|
0.0
|
5.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
50.9
|
48.3
|
0.8
|
2.6
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
51.3
|
48.7
|
--
|
2.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1962
|
Oct 29-Nov 2
|
Likely Voters
|
55.5
|
45.5
|
0.0
|
10.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
52.5
|
47.2
|
0.3
|
5.3
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
52.7
|
47.3
|
--
|
5.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1958
|
Oct 26-31
|
Likely Voters
|
57.0
|
43.0
|
0.0
|
14.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
56.2
|
43.4
|
0.4
|
12.8
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
56.4
|
43.6
|
--
|
12.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1954
|
Oct 26-30
|
Likely Voters
|
51.5
|
48.5
|
0.0
|
3.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
52.5
|
47.0
|
0.5
|
5.5
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
52.8
|
47.2
|
--
|
5.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1950
|
Oct 30-Nov 3
|
Likely Voters
|
51.0
|
49.0
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
|
|
Actual
|
49.0
|
49.0
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
2-Pty Vote
|
50.0
|
50.0
|
--
|
0.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
NOTE:
Likely Voters refers to Gallup's final estimate
Actual refers to the final national results
2-Pty Vote refers to the final national results, with other/undecided removed from the base
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