Gallup Poll Accuracy Record: Midterm Congressional Elections
|
Democrat |
Republican |
Other/ |
Dem. |
||||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
||||
|
2006 |
Nov 2-5 |
Likely voters |
51.0 |
44.0 |
5.0 |
7.0 |
|
|
Actual |
53.0 |
45.0 |
3.3 |
8.0 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
54.1 |
45.9 |
-- |
8.2 |
|||
|
2002 |
Oct 31-Nov 3 |
Likely voters |
45.0 |
51.0 |
4.0 |
-6.0 |
|
|
Actual |
45.9 |
50.5 |
3.3 |
-4.6 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
47.6 |
52.4 |
-- |
-4.8 |
|||
|
|
|||||||
|
1998 |
Oct 29-Nov 1 |
Likely voters |
49.0 |
45.0 |
6.0 |
4.0 |
|
|
Actual |
47.8 |
48.4 |
3.8 |
-0.6 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
49.7 |
50.3 |
-- |
-0.6 |
|||
|
|
|||||||
|
1994 |
Nov 2-6 |
Likely voters |
46.5 |
53.5 |
0.0 |
-7.0 |
|
|
Actual |
45.5 |
52.4 |
2.1 |
-6.9 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
46.5 |
53.5 |
-- |
-7.0 |
|||
|
1990 |
Oct 25-28 |
Likely voters |
54.0 |
46.0 |
0.0 |
8.0 |
|
|
Actual |
52.9 |
44.9 |
2.2 |
8.0 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
54.1 |
45.9 |
-- |
8.2 |
|||
|
1986 |
Oct 24-27 |
Likely voters |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
Registered |
52.0 |
40.0 |
0.0 |
12.0 |
|||
|
Actual |
54.6 |
44.5 |
0.9 |
10.1 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
55.1 |
44.9 |
-- |
10.2 |
|||
|
1982 |
Oct 15-18/ |
Likely voters |
55.0 |
45.0 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
|
|
Final results based |
Actual |
55.3 |
43.1 |
1.6 |
12.2 |
||
|
2-party vote |
56.2 |
43.8 |
-- |
12.4 |
|||
|
1978 |
Oct 27-30/ |
Likely voters |
55.0 |
45.0 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
|
|
Final results based |
Actual |
53.7 |
44.9 |
1.4 |
8.8 |
||
|
2-party vote |
54.5 |
45.5 |
-- |
8.9 |
|||
|
1974 |
Oct 18-21 |
Likely voters |
60.0 |
40.0 |
0.0 |
20.0 |
|
|
Actual |
57.6 |
40.6 |
1.8 |
17.0 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
58.7 |
41.3 |
-- |
17.3 |
|||
|
1970 |
Oct 26-31 |
Likely Voters |
53.0 |
47.0 |
0.0 |
6.0 |
|
|
Actual |
53.4 |
45.1 |
1.5 |
8.3 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
54.2 |
45.8 |
-- |
8.4 |
|||
|
1966 |
Oct 31-Nov 5 |
Likely voters |
52.5 |
47.5 |
0.0 |
5.0 |
|
|
Actual |
50.9 |
48.3 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
51.3 |
48.7 |
-- |
2.6 |
|||
|
1962 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 |
Likely voters |
55.5 |
45.5 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
|
|
Actual |
52.5 |
47.2 |
0.3 |
5.3 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
52.7 |
47.3 |
-- |
5.3 |
|||
|
1958 |
Oct 26-31 |
Likely voters |
57.0 |
43.0 |
0.0 |
14.0 |
|
|
Actual |
56.2 |
43.4 |
0.4 |
12.8 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
56.4 |
43.6 |
-- |
12.9 |
|||
|
1954 |
Oct 26-30 |
Likely voters |
51.5 |
48.5 |
0.0 |
3.0 |
|
|
Actual |
52.5 |
47.0 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
52.8 |
47.2 |
-- |
5.5 |
|||
|
1950 |
Oct 30-Nov 3 |
Likely voters |
51.0 |
49.0 |
0.0 |
2.0 |
|
|
Actual |
49.0 |
49.0 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
|||
|
2-party vote |
50.0 |
50.0 |
-- |
0.0 |
|||
|
NOTE: Likely voters refers to Gallup's final estimate Actual refers to the final national results 2-party vote refers to the final national results, with Other/Undecided removed from the base |
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