GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Iraq and national security are the issues that have received the lion's share of attention in news stories and commentary about the issues driving this fall's midterm elections. But there is little question that economic concerns will also be a factor in the vote for Congress. To some degree, of course, economic issues factor in to almost all national elections, regardless of the international climate.
It is sometimes difficult to determine exactly what it is about "the economy" that bothers Americans. Some clues are provided by an analysis of the answers to a basic open-ended question that Gallup asked on a monthly basis: "What is the most important financial problem facing your family today?"
The table below displays the coded responses to this question for the last six months.
What is the most important financial problem facing your family today?
|
Sep
7-10,
2006
|
Aug
7-10,
2006
|
Jul
6-9,
2006
|
Jun
1-4,
2006
|
May
8-11,
2006
|
Apr
10-13,
2006
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Health care costs
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
|
Lack of money/Low wages
|
12
|
11
|
13
|
12
|
14
|
12
|
|
Energy costs/oil and gas prices
|
10
|
16
|
10
|
13
|
20
|
12
|
|
Too much debt/Not enough money to pay debts
|
9
|
9
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
9
|
|
College expenses
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
8
|
|
Cost of owning/renting a home
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
|
Retirement savings
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
|
Taxes
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
|
High cost of living/inflation
|
4
|
8
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
5
|
|
Unemployment/Loss of job
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
|
Interest rates
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
Lack of savings
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
|
Transportation/commuting costs
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
*
|
|
Social Security
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
|
State of the economy
|
1
|
--
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
Stock market/investments
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
Controlling spending
|
--
|
*
|
1
|
*
|
*
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
|
None
|
18
|
14
|
19
|
15
|
15
|
14
|
|
No opinion
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
|
Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.
|
Although there have been slight changes in these responses over time, the basic financial issues that bother Americans have stayed quite stable over the last six months: basic lack of money and/or too much debt, health care costs, energy costs, and a series of other more specific concerns like college expenses, the cost of owning or renting a home, and retirement. Relatively few Americans explicitly name high taxes as their biggest financial concern.
Thus, it would appear that politicians could - at least in theory - resonate with the concerns of voters by vowing to enact policies that would in general enable Americans to take home more income and to alleviate debt, and proposals that would address the rapidly increasing costs of healthcare, address the price of gas (although concerns about energy prices presumably will continue to decline if the price of gas continues to drop between now and November), and proposals that would address concerns about Social Security and pension plans, and ways of alleviating the high costs of college.
Subgroups
The chart below analyzes the self-reported financial problems within three subgroups of the population based on self-reporting voting intentions in this fall's Congressional race: Democratic voters, Republican voters, and "swing voters" -- in this analysis the 14% of voters who do not initially express a preference for voting for either party's candidate.
The analysis is based on an aggregate of more than 3,000 interviews conducted in four separate surveys in June, July, August and September, and includes only those who say they are registered to vote in the fall elections.
|
Most Important Financial Problem by Vote for U.S. House
June-September Aggregate of Registered Voters
|
|
Those Voting for the Democratic Candidate
(48%)
|
Those Voting for the Republican
Candidate
(38%)
|
Swing
Voters
(14%) ^
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Health care costs
|
20
|
14
|
14
|
|
Lack of money/Low wages
|
14
|
9
|
13
|
|
Energy costs/oil and gas prices
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
|
College expenses
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
|
High cost of living/inflation
|
8
|
5
|
7
|
|
Too much debt/Not enough money to pay debts
|
7
|
8
|
11
|
|
Retirement savings
|
7
|
7
|
5
|
|
Cost of owning/renting a home
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
Unemployment/Loss of job
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
|
Taxes
|
3
|
6
|
5
|
|
Interest rates
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
Lack of savings
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
Social Security
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
Transportation/commuting costs
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
State of the economy
|
1
|
*
|
1
|
|
Stock market/investments
|
1
|
1
|
*
|
|
Controlling spending
|
*
|
1
|
*
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
|
None
|
12
|
21
|
17
|
|
No opinion
|
4
|
4
|
2
|
|
^ Those who do not make an initial choice when asked for which party's candidate they will vote
|
|
Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.
|
There are not major differences in the personal financial concerns among these three voter segments. But, as can be seen in the table above, Democratic voters are slightly more likely than Republican voters to say lack of money or low wages are the top financial problem (14% vs. 8%). Democratic voters also are slightly more likely to mention healthcare costs than Republican voters, 20% to 14%.
Republican voters are nearly twice as likely as Democratic voters to say there is no financial problem facing their family right now, 21% to 12% respectively.
What about the critical group of swing voters? This analysis suggests that there are four core financial concerns bothering this group: Health care costs, the cost of energy, simply not having enough income to make ends meet, and having too much debt.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted September 7-10, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
