GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The average price of gasoline across the country is currently $2.44 per gallon, down from a high of $3.00 per gallon this summer. The American public, however, remains relatively pessimistic about gas prices, and most Americans do not believe they will continue to decline. While 4 in 10 Americans believe gas prices will be lower by the end of the year, the majority predict prices will be the same or higher. Men -- particularly those aged 55 and older -- Republicans, Midwesterners, Southerners, and those in households earning at least $30,000 annually are most optimistic that gas prices will be lower by the end of the year.
High gas prices this spring and summer most likely helped drag down George W. Bush's job approval ratings and made Republicans more vulnerable heading into this year's midterm elections. The sharp drop in gas prices -- coming just weeks before the November elections -- has made some wonder if the timing is more than a coincidence. But the new poll finds that most Americans do not believe the Bush administration deliberately manipulated the price of gas. About 4 in 10 Americans do, however, believe the decreasing prices were the result of government manipulation, with Democrats especially likely to hold this view.
Gas Prices Higher or Lower at End of the Year?
The poll, conducted Sept. 15-17, finds 38% of Americans saying that by the end of the year, the price of a gallon of gasoline in their local area will be at least a little lower than current prices, while 34% say prices will be higher. Twenty-five percent of Americans say gas prices will be roughly the same as they are now. Thus, from an optimistic point of view, one can say that the majority of Americans believe gas prices will at least remain at their current levels, or drop even further. From a pessimistic perspective, the majority of Americans believe gas prices will not decrease, and may even increase, before the end of the year.
Certain groups of Americans -- men (particularly those aged 55 and older), Midwesterners and Southerners, Republicans, and those earning at least $30,000 per year -- are more optimistic than other groups of Americans that gas prices will be lower at the end of the year.
Gender and Age
Forty-three percent of men say the price of a gallon of gasoline will be lower by the end of the year, while 31% say it will be higher. Women are more evenly divided in their views, with 34% saying prices will be lower and 36% higher.
Americans younger than 55 are divided as to whether gas prices will be higher or lower by the end of the year, while those aged 55 and older are nearly twice as likely to say prices will be lower (47%) rather than higher (24%).
Men aged 55 and older are the most optimistic group about gas prices: 55% say they will be lower by year's end and just 21% say they will be higher. Women in this age group also express optimism that gas prices will be lower by the end of the year, but not to the degree men do. Among those under 55, men are divided as to whether prices will be higher (36%) or lower (37%), while women are more inclined to say they will be higher (41% vs. 31%).
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Price of Gasoline Higher, Same, or Lower by End of the Year?
Sept. 15-17, 2006
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% Higher
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% Same
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% Lower
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Men
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31
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24
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43
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Women
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36
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26
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34
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18- to 34-yearolds
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42
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19
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37
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35- to 54-year-olds
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36
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30
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32
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55 years and older
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24
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25
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47
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Men aged 18 to 54
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36
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26
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37
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Men aged 55 and older
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21
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19
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55
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Women aged 18 to 54
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41
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25
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31
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Women aged 55 and older
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27
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29
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41
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Region
Americans residing in the East and West are divided as to whether gas prices will be higher or lower at the end of the year, while Americans residing in the Midwest (32% higher vs. 39% lower) and South (31% vs. 43%) are more hopeful that gas prices will be lower.
Household Income
Americans residing in low-income households (those earning less than $30,000 per year) are much more likely to say gas prices will be higher (43%) at the end of the year rather than lower (27%). Those earning more than that are more inclined to believe prices will be lower.
Partisanship
Forty-three percent of Republicans say the price they pay for a gallon of gasoline will be lower by the end of the year, while 24% say it will be higher. These results are almost the reverse of those among Democrats -- 43% of whom say prices will be higher and 33% lower. Independents are divided in their views, with 35% saying prices will be higher and 39% saying lower.
Gas Price Manipulation?
The poll asked Americans whether they thought the Bush administration deliberately manipulated the price of gasoline so that it would decrease before the midterm elections in November. The results show that while the majority of Americans, 53%, do not believe this to be the case, 42% do.
Republicans and Democrats, as would be expected, differ sharply in their responses to this question. Just 13% of Republicans say the Bush administration manipulated the price of gasoline, compared with a strong majority of Democrats, 63%. Independents are divided in their views, with 47% saying the administration manipulated prices and 49% saying it did not do so.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 15-17, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
