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Before Recent Shootings, Most Parents Not Worried About School Safety

Before Recent Shootings, Most Parents Not Worried About School Safety

Rise in concern after Columbine in 1999 has dissipated

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The tragic school shooting incidents in Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Vermont in recent weeks have focused attention once again on the issue of the safety of the nation's school children, and has also refocused attention on the issue of gun control. The Gallup Poll has tracked the perceptions of the public on both of these issues over the years. This review helps put the recent incidents in the context of public opinion.

In August of this year -- prior to the latest set of incidents -- the majority of parents of school-aged children in America were generally not fearful for their child's safety at school, although the trend on this measure of safety concern has varied significantly over the years:

24. Thinking about your oldest child, when he or she is at school, do you fear for his or her physical safety?

BASED ON 255 K-12 PARENTS
BASED ON 211 K-12 PARENTS WHOSE CHILD ATTENDS PUBLIC SCHOOL

Yes,
fear

No,
do not

No
opinion

%

%

%

2006 Aug 7-10

All parents

25

75

*

Public school parents

27

73

--

2005 Aug 8-11

21

79

*

2004 Aug 9-11

28

71

1

2003 Aug 4-6

24

76

*

2002 Aug 5-8

31

68

1

2001 Aug 16-19

32

68

0

2001 Mar 9-11

45

54

1

2000 Aug 24-27

26

74

0

2000 Apr 7-9

43

57

0

1999 Aug 24-26

47

53

*

1999 May 21-23

52

47

1

1999 Apr 26-27

49

51

*

1999 Apr 21

55

45

0

1998 Jun 5-7

37

62

1

1977 ^

24

70

6

^ Gallup for Kettering Foundation

* Less than 0.5%

Gallup's initial use of this question wording in 1977 showed that one out of four parents of K-12 children said they feared for his or her physical safety. (It is important to note that this question does not specifically differentiate fear as a result of random shootings as opposed to fear based on bullying or gangs at school.)

Parents' level of fear jumped to 55% in April 1999 just after the shootings at Columbine High School in Colorado that resulted in the deaths of one teacher and 12 students, in addition to the two gunmen. This high level of fear gradually subsided in the years thereafter. In Gallup's recent updates of this measure each August, parental fear levels have remained below 30%, essentially where they were in 1977.

Although there are no new data available since Monday's shooting in Lancaster County, Pa., it can be assumed that parents' fear level will rise again -- at least temporarily. As noted, parents' fear levels did settle back down again even after the extraordinarily visibly given to the deaths at Columbine. Whether the latest series of shootings will more permanently alter parents' concerns is unknown at this time.

In addition to measuring parental fear, Gallup has attempted to record the fear level that students have for their own safety at school by asking parents to report on their children's expressions of such fear:

25. Have any of your school-aged children expressed any worry or concern about feeling unsafe at their school when they go back to school this fall?

BASED ON 255 K-12 PARENTS
BASED ON 211 K-12 PARENTS WHOSE CHILDREN ATTEND PUBLIC SCHOOL

Yes

No

No
opinion

%

%

%

2006 Aug 7-10

All parents

11

87

2

Public school parents

12

87

1

2004 Aug 9-11

10

89

1

2003 Aug 4-6

8

91

1

2001 Mar 9-11 ^

22

77

1

2000 Aug 24-27

8

92

*

1999 Aug 24-26

18

82

*

^ WORDING: Have any of your school-aged children expressed any worry or concern about feeling unsafe at their school when they go to school?

* Less than 0.5%

Here we find that the vast majority of parents report that their child has not verbalized worry or concern about being safe at their schools. Reports from parents that their children had expressed concerns were slightly higher in August 1999 (a few months after Columbine) and in March 2001 (after two were killed and 13 were wounded in Santee, Calif., and one student was wounded in Williamsport, Pa.), but readings taken in August 2003, 2004, and 2006 show just about one out of ten parents report such levels of concern on the part of their child.

Armed School Officials?

There are a number of proposals for changes that, in theory, could lower the probability of reoccurrences of school shootings. The Gallup Poll tested one such proposal -- the idea of arming school officials with guns -- in an April 2005 poll.

The results showed that almost three-quarters of Americans believed that schools would actually be more dangerous if school officials were armed than if they were not. There was more support in the same poll for the idea that arming judges would make courtrooms safer and fairly high levels of agreement that arming pilots (something which has now come to pass) would make commercial airplanes safer places.

45. Do you think courtrooms would be safer places or more dangerous places if judges were armed with guns?


Safer

More
dangerous

DEPENDS
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2005 Apr 4-7

43

50

2

5

(vol.) Volunteered response

46. Do you think schools would be safer places or more dangerous places if school officials were armed with guns?


Safer

More
dangerous

DEPENDS
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2005 Apr 4-7

22

73

2

3

(vol.) Volunteered response

47. Do you think airplanes would be safer places or more dangerous places if pilots were armed with guns?


Safer

More
dangerous

DEPENDS
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2005 Apr 4-7

62

33

2

3

(vol.) Volunteered response

More generally, Gallup trends show that a majority of Americans consistently have agreed that gun laws should be made more strict, although that pro-gun control sentiment is not as high now has it has been in previous decades.

26. In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now?

More
strict

Less
strict

Kept
as now

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2005 Oct 13-16

57

7

35

1

2004 Oct 11-14

54

11

34

1

2004 Jan 9-11

60

6

34

*

2003 Oct 6-8

55

9

36

*

2002 Oct 14-17

51

11

36

2

2001 Oct 11-14

53

8

38

1

2000 May 5-7

62

5

31

2

2000 Apr 7-9

61

7

30

2

1999 Dec 9-12

60

10

29

1

1999 Aug 3-4

66

6

27

1

1999 Jun 25-27

62

6

31

1

1999 May 23-24

65

5

28

2

1999 Apr 26-27

66

7

25

2

1999 Feb 8-9

60

9

29

2

1995 Apr 23-24 ^

62

12

24

2

1993 Dec 17-19

67

7

25

1

1993 Mar 12-14

70

4

24

2

1991 Mar 21-24

68

5

25

2

1990 Sep 10-11

78

2

17

3

^ Asked of half sample

* Less than 0.5%

These data suggest that if one result of the recent school shooting incidents is to increase calls for gun control legislation, such calls will be well-received by more than half of the population. (By way of reference, about four out of ten Americans have a gun in their home.)

Implications

School shootings appear to occur in clusters, perhaps as some theorists have hypothesized, as a result of a copycat phenomenon in which highly publicized incidents have the effect of pushing others to engage in similar acts of violence and hatred. Gallup data suggest that parental concern about their child's safety tends to go up after these clusters of incidents, but drop back down again when there is a period without incidents. If this same pattern continues to hold, we can expect to see an increase in parental concern in the short term, but no long term change. It is possible, however, that at some point, the baseline of parents' concern will move up more permanently, something Gallup's ongoing trend would document.

Although it is unclear to what degree more rigid gun control laws might have prevented the occurrence of any of the school incidents, the data suggest that the public is, in general, open to the idea of such changes in the laws.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/24844/Before-Recent-Shootings-Most-Parents-Worried-About-School-Safety.aspx
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